--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Stata output log.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:   3 Jun 2022, 11:59:15
r; t=0.00 11:59:15

. 
. clear
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. 
. ********************************************************************************************************************
. * For quick bug-testing, change the following global from 0 to 1.
. * When set to 1, the dataset will be restricted to a limited set of authors,
. * and it will change convergence to "technique(dfp)" regardless of what it had previously been set to.
. ********************************************************************************************************************
. global quick_bug_testing = 0
r; t=0.00 11:59:15

. 
. /**********************************************************
> Create a global variable specifying the convergence parameter.
> Some convergence criteria - esp. nested - will make the regressions 
> take far longer, so it is useful to run this do-file with non-nested
> for bug-testing. Once it is verified that the entire do-file runs 
> without error, the parameter can be changed to nested. By defining a 
> global variable here, we only have to change one line in order
> to change the convergence parameter for all our regressions at once.
> 
> The synthetic control method takes a convergence parameter:
> unspecified (non-nested), "nested", and "nested allopt". 
> 
> And optionally, it takes parameters from Stata's ml optimizer, such as
> "margin(#)", "technique(string)", and "maxiter(#)"
> 
> margin(#) indicates a constraint violation tolerance; specifying a small number
> results in fewer graceful failures to converge.
> 
> The default technique (nr dfp bfgs) is far slower and uses much
> more RAM than two alternatives: DFP (Davidon–Fletcher–Powell) 
> and BFGS (Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno). (On synth's default technique,
> check the source code via "view c:\ado\plus\s\synth.ado" - you'll see it's 
> "technique (nr dfp bfgs)". To find the location of synth.ado, type "which synth".)
> 
> Finally, setting maxiter(#) can prevent interminable hangs. When we enlarged our 
> dataset by adding the second 20 vol of the Harvard Classics and the German authors, 
> we found that a few parallel synth_runner threads would hang, failing to converge 
> or even suffer graceful failure to converge, after many, many hours. But we found 
> that even as few as 5 to 10 iterations is often enough to get a very good fit, and 
> still better than the non-nested fit. And setting a max number of iterations did 
> prevent these endless loops. But strangely, each extra iteration seems to increase 
> the time required non-linearly. E.g., 15 iterationsfor "Karl Marx" synth takes about 
> 5 times longer than 10 iterations. So it seems that the extra iterations are greedy 
> somehow. Strangely, setting margin(#) did not solve the problem of these endlessly 
> repeating iterations. In light of all these, we set maxiter(20).
> 
> Note that all of our std p-values are discounted by the pre-treatment RMSPE. So
> if any of these options do result in a small number of donors getting bad 
> pre-treatment fits, then this should not affect our results too much, because
> their post-treatment treatment effects will be discounted by their large 
> pre-treatment RMSPE. So e.g., if maxiter(20) causes a unit to get horrible fit,
> then that unit should be discounted by a correspondingly large amount. 
> **********************************************************/
. global convergence = "nested allopt technique(dfp) maxiter(20)"
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. 
. * In case we change $convergence at some point (e.g. for a robustness test), we also save it as a duplicate backup.
. global convergence_backup = "$convergence"
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. 
. * We define a lower level of convergence, with fewer iterations, for the 
. * normalization tests because there are 39 separate synth_runner regressions,
. * and they collectively take several days at 15 iterations.
. global convergence_normalization = "nested allopt technique(dfp) maxiter(15)"
r; t=0.00 11:59:15

. 
. if ($quick_bug_testing == 1) {
.         global convergence = "technique(dfp)"
r; t=0.00 11:59:15
.         global convergence_backup = "technique(dfp)"
r; t=0.00 11:59:15
.         global convergence_normalization = "technique(dfp)"
r; t=0.00 11:59:15
. }
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. 
. /*********************************************************
> For maximum reproducibility of results, 
> we do NOT use the Intel Math Kernel Library 
> See https://www.stata.com/manuals/m-1lapack.pdf
> 
> We set Mata to prefer maximizing speed over minimizing memory
> See https://www.stata.com/manuals13/m-3mataset.pdf
> 
> We set "lapack_mkl off" and "mata set matafavor speed" 
> permanently because the parallel module works by opening
> additional instances of Stata, and we need these to have the 
> same settings. 
> 
> Therefore, we save the savings which existed prior to running this do file, and
> restore them at the end. This ensures that the change is not really permanent.
> *********************************************************/
. global previous_lapack_setting = c(lapack_mkl)
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. global previous_matafavor_setting = c(matafavor)
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. 
. set lapack_mkl off, permanently
(set lapack_mkl preference recorded)
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. mata: mata set matafavor speed, permanently
(set matafavor preference recorded)
r; t=0.00 11:59:15

. 
. /*******************************************************************************************************
> * Install necessary packages if necessary
> 
> * synth by Hainmueller, Abadie, and Diamond
> ssc install synth, replace all
> 
> * Outdated version of synth:
> * net from "https://web.stanford.edu/~jhain/Synth"
> * net install synth, all replace force
> 
> * synth_runner by Quistorff and Galiani
> net install synth_runner, from(https://raw.github.com/bquistorff/synth_runner/master/) replace
> 
> * parallel by Vega Yon and Quistorff
> net install parallel, from(https://raw.github.com/gvegayon/parallel/master/) replace
> mata mata mlib index
> 
> * github and rcall by Haghish (github is needed to install rcall)
> net install github, from("https://haghish.github.io/github/")
> github install haghish/rcall, stable
> rcall: install.packages("readstata13", repos="http://cran.uk.r-project.org")
> rcall_check 
> rcall describe
> * rcall setpath "if rcall cannot detect your R installation, then set the path here to R.exe"
> 
> * Wilson's harmonic mean p-value, implemented in R.
> rcall: install.packages("harmonicmeanp", repos="http://cran.uk.r-project.org")
> 
> * estout by Ben Jann, in order to use estadd, to add results to e() matrices.
> ssc install estout, replace
> 
> * matsave is not used, but it was potentially useful for our purposes, so this is kept as a reminder in case we ever need it
> * ssc install matsave, replace all
> ********************************************************************************************************/
. 
. * Even if harmonicmeanp is installed, it must still be loaded by R.
. rcall: library(harmonicmeanp)
(loading rcall)

Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=17.33 11:59:32

. 
. update query 
(contacting http://www.stata.com)

Update status
    Last check for updates:  03 Jun 2022
    New update available:    01 Jun 2022  (what's new)
    Current update level:    10 May 2022  (what's new)

Possible actions

    Install available updates             (or type -update all-)
r; t=1.29 11:59:34

. 
. /**********************************************************
> Do some more system setup
> **********************************************************/
. 
. * Turn off the "more" message when output is long
. * Enable timer that will indicate execution time of all commands
. * Set a seed so any results involving randomization will be replicable
. set more off
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. set rmsg on
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. set seed 8675309
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. 
. * Set the parallel module to use the number of logical processors minus 1, so that there's still some processing capacity left for the operating
. * system and background process. But if (number of processors minus 1) is 0 or negative, then we use one processor
. parallel numprocessors
Number of logical processors: 32
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. local numprocessors_to_use = r(numprocessors)-1 
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. if (`numprocessors_to_use' <= 0) {
.         local numprocessors_to_use = 1
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. }
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. parallel setclusters `numprocessors_to_use'
N Child processes: 31
Stata dir:  C:\Program Files\Stata17/StataMP-64.exe
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. 
. * if Stata/MP, use all of the processors available - the number of licensed cores or the number of logical processors, whichever is smaller
. local is_MP = c(MP)
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. if (`is_MP') {
.         local licensed_cores = c(processors_max)
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.         local logical_cores = c(processors_mach) 
r; t=0.00 11:59:34
.         if (`licensed_cores' <= `logical_cores') {
.                 set processors `licensed_cores'
    The maximum number of processors or cores being used is 2.  It can be set to any number between 1 and 2.
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.         }
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.         else {
.                 set processors `logical_cores'
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.         }
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. }
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. local is_MP = ""
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. local processors_max = ""
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. 
. 
. clear
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. 
. /*************************************************************************************************************************************************************
> Load data and create different snapshots with different configurations of the data --- using "snapshot"
> 
> Each of following snapshots configures the data in a way that is convenient for several regressions, so that each regression only needs to make slight changes to 
> the data, rather than redoing all the configurations. E.g., we have a snapshot called "Karl Marx, 1878-1932", which drops "Marx" and keeps the years "1878-1932."
> This is used for the vast majority of our regressions. When we drop "Kropotkin" for robustness, we can just load "Karl Marx, 1878-1932" and then drop "Kropotkin,"
> without worrying about dropping "Marx" and keeping "1878-1932." 
> 
> Each snapshot has its own encoding of string Name ---> long Name_no. This way, if you use a given snapshot, the encoding is always the same for that snapshot. 
> So this makes it easier to keep track of which name corresponds to which number. Just load a snapshot and tabulate Name_no_Name.
> 
> In each snapshot, we also normalize citation counts, YearofPublication, and YearofTranslationtoEnglish to the range [0,1] to accelerate convergence of numerical estimation.
> 
> In Stata 16 (and newer), the new frames utility is one way of achieving this - especially because you refer to frames by name, not number, so you don't have to
> worry about loading the wrong frame if you create another one. But the problem with frames is that if you "clear" the data, you clear all the data in that frame.
> By contrast, with snapshots, if you clear the data, the snapshots themselves are not cleared. So if you clear data when using snapshots, you can just 
> restore the snapshot. But if you clear data when using frames, your data are lost, and you have to recreate the whole frame. So for that reason, we prefer 
> snapshots. Therefore, we use snapshots with a trick that still allows me to refer to snapshots by name, not number.
> 
> To achieve the best of both worlds - the un-clearability of snapshots with the frame's ability to refer by name and not by number, we do the following:
> After we create a snapshot, we call "quietly snapshot list", which saves the total number of snapshots in r(snapshot). Then we create a new global macro with
> a descriptive name, and a value equal to r(snapshot). That way, each snapshot number is associated with a global macro with a descriptive name.
> Then, we can snapshot restore $global_descriptive_name rather than snapshot restore #. And even if we change the snapshot code, such as by adding another snapshot
> in the middle of preexisting snapshots, so that the numbering of snapshots changes, the descriptive names won't change. As long as we create each global immediately 
> after snapshot list, the value of r(snapshot) will correctly refer to that new snapshot.
> *************************************************************************************************************************************************************/
. 
. * Program to normalize citation counts, YearofPublication, and YearofTranslationtoEnglish to the range [0,1] to accelerate convergence of numerical estimation.
. capture program drop NormalizeVariables
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. program define NormalizeVariables
  1. 
.         * Assert that the sample minimum of each our citations is zero. This ensures that after min-max normalizing,
.         * we can still interpret citations as an absolute scale. E.g., 0.5 citations will be double 0.25 citations.
.         * If the minimum were not zero, then min-max normalization fails to provide an absolute scale. Then instead,
.         * we would have to rescale by dividing every citation by the maximum, so that the maximum is 1, and the new
.         * minimum is min/max. This would preserve an absolute scale where 2X implies twice X.
.         foreach variable in cite_English cite_German cite_French cite_Spanish cite_news {
  2.                 summarize `variable'
  3.                 assert r(min) == 0
  4.         }
  5. 
.         foreach variable in cite_English cite_German cite_French cite_Spanish cite_news YearofPublication YearofTranslationtoEnglish {
  6.                 capture quietly summarize `variable'
  7.                 capture replace `variable' = (`variable' - r(min)) / (r(max)-r(min))
  8.         }
  9. end
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. * Program to encode a string Name into a number Name_no, and tsset 
. * We don't actually call this program until right before we run each regression, because 
. * if we number the units and then drop any units, we'll have gaps in the numbering,
. * which makes it difficult to tell which unit is hanging or failing to converge if
. * one fails to converge.
. capture program drop NumberUnits 
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. program define NumberUnits 
  1.         encode Name, generate(Name_no)
  2.         gen hyphen = "-"
  3.         egen Name_no_Name = concat(Name_no hyphen Name)
  4.         drop hyphen
  5.         tabulate Name_no_Name
  6.         tsset Name_no Year
  7. end
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. * Create a snapshot of all authors and all years, including Hegel 
. clear
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. cd "$path"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff
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. use "$path\data files\all_authors_with_citations_and_indicators.dta"
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. * If quick bug-testing, restrict the dataset to a small set of authors that includes 
. * at least 1 of every value of OriginalLanguage (to avoid the dummy trap in our regressions), 
. * all socialists (to avoid tripping the code where we run each socialist's synth, one-by-one),
. * and set global convergence to "technique(dfp)".
. keep Name Year cite_* Political Socialist OriginalLanguage wrote_* Yearof* author_set 
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. order Name Year cite_* Political Socialist OriginalLanguage wrote_* Yearof* author_set
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. if ($quick_bug_testing == 1) {
.         keep if author_set == 1 | OriginalLanguage == "Spanish" | OriginalLanguage == "Russian" | Socialist == 1
r; t=0.00 11:59:34
. }
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     33,522    6.96e-07    1.71e-06          0   .0000265

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     33,673    1.60e-06    5.74e-06          0    .000251

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |     29,898    1.62e-06    4.35e-06          0   .0000749

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     30,804    9.20e-07    3.79e-06          0    .000115

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,575     .000725    .0015848          0   .0196458
r; t=0.03 11:59:34

. compress
  (0 bytes saved)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot save, label("All authors, all years, including Hegel")
snapshot 1 (All authors, all years, including Hegel) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. quietly snapshot list
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. global all_authors_all_years_inc_Hegel = r(snapshot)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. * Create a snapshot of all authors and all years, excluding Hegel, because cannot distinguish
. * the father (Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel) and the son (Friedrich Wilhelm Karl, Ritter von Hegel). 
. * In Google Ngram, "Friedrich Hegel" and "Karl Hegel" appear with almost equal frequency.
. clear
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot restore $all_authors_all_years_inc_Hegel
r; t=0.01 11:59:34

. drop if Name == "Hegel"
(151 observations deleted)
r; t=0.01 11:59:34

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     33,371    .0260469    .0647128          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     33,522    .0060926    .0222225          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |     29,747    .0212925    .0577777          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     30,653    .0078377      .03287          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,512    .0378023    .0821983          0          1
r; t=0.01 11:59:34

. compress
  (0 bytes saved)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot save, label("All authors, all years, excluding Hegel")
snapshot 2 (All authors, all years, excluding Hegel) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. quietly snapshot list
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. global all_authors_all_years_excl_Hegel = r(snapshot)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. * Snapshot: restrict data to 1878-1932
. * For all of our synth regressions, we can specify the x-period for estimations, 
. * but then the graph still includes every year in our dataset, which is visually annoying
. * (even though it has no affect on our actual results)
. * So let's just drop all the years we won't use, so that our graphs will look nice
. clear
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot restore $all_authors_all_years_excl_Hegel
r; t=0.01 11:59:34

. drop if Year < 1878
(6,384 observations deleted)
r; t=0.01 11:59:34

. drop if Year > 1932
(15,504 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     12,155    .0262609    .0636966          0   .6483135

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     12,210    .0052741    .0186932          0   .5368073

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |     10,835    .0195948    .0536601          0    .892503

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     11,165    .0067497    .0322158          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
r; t=0.01 11:59:34

. compress
  (0 bytes saved)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot save, label("All authors (excl Hegel), 1878-1932")
snapshot 3 (All authors (excl Hegel), 1878-1932) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. quietly snapshot list
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. global all_authors_1878_1932 = r(snapshot)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. * Snapshot: years are 1878-1932 and treatment is "Karl Marx" so drop "Marx". All languages.
. clear
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot restore $all_authors_1878_1932
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. drop if Name == "Marx"
(55 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     12,100    .0401774    .0982791          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     12,210    .0098249     .034823          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |     10,835    .0219549    .0601231          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     11,165    .0067497    .0322158          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
r; t=0.01 11:59:34

. compress
  (0 bytes saved)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot save, label("Karl Marx, 1878-1932, all languages")
snapshot 4 (Karl Marx, 1878-1932, all languages) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. quietly snapshot list
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. global Karl_Marx_1878_1932 = r(snapshot)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. * Snapshot: 
. /*
> Years are 1878-1932 
> Treatment is "Karl Marx" so drop "Marx"
> Citations in English, so keep if !missing(cite_English) & !missing(YearofTranslationtoEnglish)
> */
. clear 
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. keep if !missing(cite_English) & !missing(YearofTranslationtoEnglish)
(1,705 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    .0450399    .1030764          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
r; t=0.01 11:59:34

. compress 
  (0 bytes saved)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot save, label("Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English")
snapshot 5 (Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. quietly snapshot list
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. global Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English = r(snapshot)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. * Snapshot: treatment is "Marx" so drop "Karl Marx", but otherwise the same as snapshot $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English.
. clear
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot restore $all_authors_1878_1932
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. drop if Name == "Karl Marx"
(55 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. keep if !missing(cite_English) & !missing(YearofTranslationtoEnglish)
(1,705 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    .0455376    .1032424          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,450    .0112874    .0374314          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,900    .0239255    .0625293          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,175    .0073928    .0336772          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,265    .0385262    .0860308          0          1
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. compress 
  (0 bytes saved)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. snapshot save, label("Marx, 1878-1932, English")
snapshot 6 (Marx, 1878-1932, English) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. quietly snapshot list
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. global Marx_1878_1932_English = r(snapshot)
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. snapshot list
snapshot 1 (All authors, all years, including Hegel) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
snapshot 2 (All authors, all years, excluding Hegel) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
snapshot 3 (All authors (excl Hegel), 1878-1932) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
snapshot 4 (Karl Marx, 1878-1932, all languages) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
snapshot 5 (Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
snapshot 6 (Marx, 1878-1932, English) created at 3 Jun 2022 11:59
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. macro list
Marx_1878_1932_English:
                6
Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English:
                5
Karl_Marx_1878_1932:
                4
all_authors_1878_1932:
                3
all_authors_all_years_excl_Hegel:
                2
all_authors_all_years_inc_Hegel:
                1
PLL_STATA_PATH: "C:\Program Files\Stata17/StataMP-64.exe"
PLL_CHILDREN:   31
PLL_CLUSTERS:   31
USE_PROCEXEC:   2
Rcall_check:    1
rcall_interactive_first_launch:
                on
previous_matafavor_setting:
                speed
previous_lapack_setting:
                off
convergence_normalization:
                nested allopt technique(dfp) maxiter(15)
convergence_backup:
                nested allopt technique(dfp) maxiter(20)
convergence:    nested allopt technique(dfp) maxiter(20)
quick_bug_testing:
                0
path:           C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff
S_level:        95
F1:             help advice;
F2:             describe;
F7:             save
F8:             use
S_ADO:          BASE;SITE;.;PERSONAL;PLUS;OLDPLACE
S_StataMP:      MP
S_StataSE:      SE
S_OS:           Windows
S_OSDTL:        64-bit
S_MACH:         PC (64-bit x86-64)
_logical_cores: 32
_licensed_cores:
                2
_numprocessors_to_use:
                31
S_FN:           C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\data files\all_authors_with_citations_and_indicators.dta
S_FNDATE:        3 Jun 2022 11:57
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. disp $all_authors_all_years_inc_Hegel $all_authors_all_years_excl_Hegel $all_authors_1878_1932 $Karl_Marx_1878_1932 $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English $Marx_1878_1932_English
123456
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. * Write the current convergence settings to a file 
. * We put this line here, in case the global quick_bug_testing has been used to change the global convergence.
. capture erase "$path\results\convergence_settings.txt"
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. file open convergence_settings using "$path\results\convergence_settings.txt", write  
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. file write convergence_settings "convergence: $convergence" _newline 
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. file write convergence_settings "convergence for normalization test: $convergence_normalization" _newline
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. file write convergence_settings "bug-testing mode (1/0) (reduced dataset, sets convergence precision to minimum regardless of previous convergence setting): $quick_bug_testin
> g" _newline 
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. file close convergence_settings
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Write some programs we will call frequently
. **********************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Load two programs from "save_synth_and_synth_runner_output.do": "save_synth_output" and "save_synth_runner_output"
. * These two programs will save all output from "synth" and "synth_runner" where the current directory is
. do "$path\do files\save_synth_and_synth_runner_output.do"

. ********************************************************************************************************************
. ********************************************************************************************************************
. ********************************************************************************************************************
. * Programs "save_synth_output" and "save_synth_runner_output" to save output from synth and synth_runner.
. * Output is written to the current directory. Use "cd" before calling these programs.
. * save_synth_runner_output will also compute Wilson's asymptotically exact p-value and the Simes p-value.
. ********************************************************************************************************************
. ********************************************************************************************************************
. ********************************************************************************************************************
. ********************************************************************************************************************
. version 17.0
r; t=0.00 11:59:34

. 
. /*******************************************************************************************************
> * Install necessary packages if necessary
> 
> * github and rcall by Haghish (github is needed to install rcall)
> net install github, from("https://haghish.github.io/github/")
> github install haghish/rcall, stable
> rcall: install.packages("readstata13", repos="http://cran.uk.r-project.org")
> rcall_check 
> rcall describe
> rcall setpath "if rcall cannot detect your R installation, then set the path here to R.exe"
> 
> * Wilson's harmonic mean p-value, implemented in R.
> rcall: install.packages("harmonicmeanp", repos="http://cran.uk.r-project.org")
> 
> * matsave is not used, but it was potentially useful for our purposes, so this is kept as a reminder in case we ever need it
> * ssc install matsave, replace all
> 
> * estout by Ben Jann, in order to use estadd, to add results to e() matrices.
> ssc install estout, replace
> ********************************************************************************************************/
. 
. * Even if harmonicmeanp is installed, it must still be loaded by R.
. rcall: library(harmonicmeanp)
Warning message:
 In  :  
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. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
> ************************************************************************
. * Program to compute the asymptotically exact p-value (Wilson, Daniel J. "The harmonic mean p-value for combining dependent tests." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sci
> ences 116.4 (2019): 1195-1200.)
. * and the Simes p-value (Simes, R. John. "An improved Bonferroni procedure for multiple tests of significance." Biometrika 73.3 (1986): 751-754.).
. * 
. * This program is called by save_synth_runner_output
. * The results are added to the synth_runner e() matrices.
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
> ************************************************************************
. capture program drop compute_AEP_and_Simes 
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. program define compute_AEP_and_Simes
  1. 
.         * We take the matrices e(pvals) and e(pvals_std), save them as ordinary matrices, then replace all p-values of
.         * zero with their smallest possible non-zero values, which is 1 divided by the number of placebo tests, or 1/e(n_pl_used.)
.         * 
.         * Explanation why we replace all p-values of zero:
.         *
.         * The harmonic mean p-value is not defined for p=0. 
.         *
.         * And the Simes test, while technically computable for p=0, doesn't make sense for p=0. 
.         * Suppose we obtained p=0 once and p=0.99 a thousand times. The Simes p-value is the minimum
.         * of p * N/i (after sorting least to greatest), so if a single p-value is zero, the final value 
.         * is zero as well. But intuitively, if we obtain p=0 and p=0.99 a thousand times, the overall 
.         * p-value should be closer to 0.99, not zero.
.         *
.         * Therefore, to compute the harmonic mean p-value and Simes p-value, we replace all p-values of zero with their
.         * smallest possible non-zero values, which is 1 divided by the number of placebo tests, or 1/e(n_pl_used.)
.         foreach matrix_name in pvals pvals_std {
  2.                 matrix `matrix_name' = e(`matrix_name')
  3.                 local numElements = colsof(`matrix_name')
  4.                 foreach element of numlist 1(1)`numElements' {
  5.                         if `matrix_name'[1,`element'] == 0 {
  6.                                 matrix `matrix_name'[1,`element'] = 1 /  e(n_pl_used)
  7.                         }
  8.                 }
  9.         }
 10. 
.         * Pass our matrices (pvals, pvals_std) to R
.         rcall: pvals <- st.matrix(pvals)
 11.         rcall: pvals_std <- st.matrix(pvals_std)
 12.                 
.         * Compute the asymptotically exact p-values (AEP) from the harmonic mean p-values (HMP)
.         * p.hmp takes a vector of ordinary p-values and returns an asymptotically exact p-value
.         * It does this by calculating the HMP (which is simply the harmonic mean of several ordinary p-values) 
.         * and then integrating the Landau distribution over HMP to infinity.
.         rcall: pval_AEP <- p.hmp(pvals)
 13.         rcall: pval_std_AEP <- p.hmp(pvals_std)
 14. 
.         * Compute the Simes p-values 
.         rcall: L <- length(pvals)
 15.         rcall: w <- rep(1/L,L)
 16.         rcall: pval_simes <- min(sort(pvals/w)/(1:L))
 17.         rcall: pval_std_simes <- min(sort(pvals_std/w)/(1:L))
 18.         
.         * For convenience, display e(pval_joint_post) and e(pval_joint_post_std), to which p-values we just generated (AEP and Simes) can be compared
.         disp "e(pval_joint_post): " e(pval_joint_post)
 19.         disp "e(pval_joint_post_std): " e(pval_joint_post_std)
 20.         
.         * Add results to e matrix of current synth_runner results.
.         estadd r(pval_AEP)
 21.         estadd r(pval_std_AEP)
 22.         estadd r(pval_simes)
 23.         estadd r(pval_std_simes) 
 24.         
.         * Erase the temporary files created by rcall 
.         capture erase ".Rdata"
 25.         capture erase "_load.matrix.pvals_std.dta"
 26.         
. end
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. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
> ************************************************************************
. * Program to save synth output in the current directory (whatever that is)
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
> ************************************************************************
. capture program drop save_synth_output
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. program define save_synth_output
  1.         * Save synth graph
.         graph save "synth_graph", replace
  2.         
.         * Save Synth results in an Excel spreadsheet
.         *Save RMSPE:
.         putexcel set "synth_results.xlsx", replace sheet(RMSPE)
  3.         putexcel (A1) = "e(RMSPE): A one by one matrix that contains the Root Mean Squared Prediction Error (RMSPE))."
  4.         putexcel (A3) = matrix(e(RMSPE)), names overwritefmt
  5.         *Save V-Matrix:
.         putexcel set "synth_results.xlsx", modify sheet(V-Matrix)
  6.         putexcel (A1) = "e(V_matrix): A diagonal matrix that contains the normalized variable weights in the diagonal."
  7.         putexcel (A3) = matrix(e(V_matrix)), names overwritefmt
  8.         *Save Indicator Balance:
.         putexcel set "synth_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Indicator Balance)
  9.         putexcel (A1) = "e(X_balance): A matrix that juxtaposes the predictor values for the unit affected by the intervention and the synthetic control unit. The matrix h
> as two columns (treated and synthetic) and as many rows as predictors."
 10.         putexcel (A3) = matrix(e(X_balance)), names overwritefmt
 11.         *Save Donor Weights:
.         putexcel set "synth_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Donor Weights)
 12.         putexcel (A1) = "e(W_weights): A matrix that contains the unit numbers and unit weights, ie. the relative contribution of each control unit to the synthetic contro
> l unit.  The matrix has two column and as many rows as control units."
 13.         putexcel (A3) = matrix(e(W_weights)), names overwritefmt
 14.         *Save outcome for both treated and synthetic:
.         putexcel set "synth_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Outcomes)
 15.         putexcel (A1) =  "e(Y_treated): A matrix that contains the values of the response variable for the treated unit for each time period.  The matrix has one column an
> d as many rows as time periods specified in resultsperiod()."
 16.         putexcel (A2) = "e(Y_synthetic): A matrix that contains the values of the response variable for the synthetic control unit for each time period.  The matrix has on
> e column and as many rows as time periods specified in resultsperiod()."
 17.         putexcel (A4) = matrix(e(Y_treated)), names overwritefmt
 18.         putexcel (B4) = "Y-Treated"
 19.         putexcel (D4) = matrix(e(Y_synthetic)), names overwritefmt
 20.         putexcel (E4) = "Y-Synthetic"
 21. end
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. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
> ************************************************************************
. * Program to save synth_runner output in the current directory (whatever that is)
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
> ************************************************************************
. capture program drop save_synth_runner_output
r; t=0.00 11:59:35

. program define save_synth_runner_output
  1. 
.         * Obtain the asymptotically exact p-value and the Simes p-value 
.         compute_AEP_and_Simes
  2.         
.         * Generate and save synth_runner graphs
.         single_treatment_graphs, trlinediff(0)
  3.                 graph save raw "synth_runner_raw", replace
  4.                 graph save effects "synth_runner_effects", replace
  5.         effect_graphs, trlinediff(0)
  6.                 graph save effect "synth_runner_effect", replace
  7.                 graph save tc "synth_runner_tc", replace
  8.         pval_graphs
  9.                 graph save pvals "synth_runner_pvals", replace
 10.                 graph save pvals_std "synth_runner_pvals_std", replace
 11.         
.         * Save synth_runner results
.         * Save number of placebos
.         putexcel set "synth_runner_results.xlsx", replace sheet(N-Placebos)
 12.         putexcel (A1) = "e(n_pl): The number of placebo averages used for comparison. For single treatment setups, this can be used to calculate purely randomized p-values
> ."
 13.                 putexcel (A2) = matrix(e(n_pl)), names overwritefmt
 14.         putexcel (A5) = "e(n_pl_used): undocumented."
 15.                 putexcel (A6) = matrix(e(n_pl_used)), names overwritefmt
 16.         putexcel (A9) = "e(failed_opt_targets): Errors when constructing the synthetic controls for non-treated units are handled gracefully. If any are detected they will
>  be listed in this matrix. (Errors when constructing the synthetic control for treated units will abort the method.)"
 17.                 putexcel (A10) = matrix(e(failed_opt_targets)), names overwritefmt
 18.         * Save P-Values
.         putexcel set "synth_runner_results.xlsx", modify sheet(P-Values)
 19.         putexcel (A1) = "e(pvals): A vector of the proportions of placebo effects that are at least as large as the main effect for each post-treatment period."
 20.                 putexcel (A2) = matrix(e(pvals)), names overwritefmt
 21.         putexcel (A5) = "e(pvals_std): A vector of the proportions of placebo standardized effects that are at least as large as the main standardized effect for each post
> -treatment period."
 22.                 putexcel (A6) = matrix(e(pvals_std)), names overwritefmt
 23.         putexcel (A9) = "e(pval_joint_post): The proportion of placebos that have a post-treatment RMSPE at least as large as the average for the treated units."
 24.                 putexcel (A10) = matrix(e(pval_joint_post)), names overwritefmt
 25.         putexcel (A13) = "e(pval_joint_post_std): The proportion of placebos that have a ratio of post-treatment RMSPE over pre-treatment RMSPE at least as large as the av
> erage ratio for the treated units."
 26.                 putexcel (A14) = matrix(e(pval_joint_post_std)), names overwritefmt     
 27.         putexcel (A17) = "e(pval_AEP): The asymptotically exact p-value (AEP) of e(pvals). The AEP is obtained by taking the harmonic mean of several ordinary p-values (HM
> P), and then integrating the Landua distribution over HMP to infinity."
 28.                 putexcel (A18) = "The AEP is a form of meta-analysis. See Wilson, Daniel J. ''The harmonic mean p-value for combining dependent tests.'' Proceedings of the
>  National Academy of Sciences 116.4 (2019): 1195-1200."
 29.                 putexcel (A19) = "This value should be interpreted similarly to e(pval_joint_post)."
 30.                 putexcel (A20) = matrix(e(pval_AEP)), names overwritefmt        
 31.         putexcel (A23) = "e(pval_std_AEP): Equivalent to e(pvals_AEP), but computed from e(pvals_std)."
 32.                 putexcel (A24) = "This value should be interpreted similarly to e(pval_joint_post_std)."
 33.                 putexcel (A25) = matrix(e(pval_std_AEP)), names overwritefmt
 34.         putexcel (A28) = "e(pval_simes): The Simes p-value of e(pvals). The Simes p-value is similar to the Bonferroni correction for multiple tests, except instead of mul
> tiplying every p-value by N,"
 35.                 putexcel (A29) = "it orders p-values from smallest to largest, and multiplies each by N/i. Thus, it is less conservative, and has a lower false-negative ra
> te than the Bonferroni correction."
 36.                 putexcel (A30) = "See Simes, R. John. ''An improved Bonferroni procedure for multiple tests of significance.'' Biometrika 73.3 (1986): 751-754."
 37.                 putexcel (A31) = "This value should be interpreted similarly to e(pval_joint_post)."
 38.                 putexcel (A32) = matrix(e(pval_simes)), names overwritefmt
 39.         putexcel (A35) = "e(pval_std_simes): The Simes p-value of e(pvals_std)."
 40.                 putexcel (A36) = "This value should be interpreted similarly to e(pval_joint_post_std)."
 41.                 putexcel (A37) = matrix(e(pval_std_simes)), names overwritefmt  
 42.         
.         * Save measures of fit
.         putexcel set "synth_runner_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Fit)
 43.         putexcel (A1) = "e(avg_pre_rmspe_p): The proportion of placebos that have a pre-treatment RMSPE at least as large as the average of the treated units. A measure of
>  fit. Concerning if significant."
 44.         putexcel (A2) = matrix(e(avg_pre_rmspe_p)), names overwritefmt
 45.         
.         putexcel set "synth_runner_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Fit)
 46.         putexcel (A5) = "e(avg_val_rmspe_p):  When specifying training_propr, this is the proportion of placebos that have a RMSPE for the validation period at least as la
> rge as the average of the treated units. A measure of fit. Concerning if significant."
 47.         putexcel (A6) = matrix(e(avg_val_rmspe_p)), names overwritefmt
 48. end 
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. 
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
> ******************************************************************
. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
> ******************************************************************
. 
end of do-file
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. 
. * Here, we define a baseline regression that we will often use. Whenever we make a slight change to our regression, e.g. by dropping a single donor,
. * we can just call this program instead of repeating the same code.
. * This regression here assumes treatment in 1917 and a total period of 1878-1932
. * It takes the treatment unit # as an argument, so that if we change our sample slightly (e.g. dropping a donor), which changes the treatment unit, we can still use this same
>  regression.
. *
. * Outcome = cite_English - i.e. annual citations without smoothing (i.e. averaging with adjacent years)
. *
. * Indicators = YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political
. *
. * Indicators also = cite_English in various years
. * We use cite_English averaged in years X, X+1, and X+2; and then again, averaging in years X+6, X+7, and X+8. 
. * This is so that we use data for three years, then we stop tracking for 3 years, and then we track for 3 years again. 
. * So half the pre-treatment period is tracked, in a yes/no/yes/no pattern.
. *
. * Thus, for most of our regressions, we use this list of indicators:
. * YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political
. * cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886)
. * 
. * trperiod = 1917 i.e. Russian Revolution
. * mspeperiod(1878(1)1916)
. * 
. * We get our p-values from synth_runner
. capture program drop baseline_regression
r; t=0.00 11:59:35

. program define baseline_regression
  1.         
.         synth cite_English ///
>                 YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political /
> //
>                 cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) ci
> te_English(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>                 trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>                 fig keep("synth_results") replace
  2.                 
.                 save_synth_output
  3.         
.         synth_runner cite_English ///
>                 YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political /
> //
>                 cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) ci
> te_English(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>                 trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>                 noredo_tr_error ///
>                 gen_vars ///
>                 keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>                 parallel 
  4.                 
.                 save_synth_runner_output
  5.         
.         * Cleanup
.         drop lead cite_English_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
  6.         parallel clean  
  7. end
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. 
. clear
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. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Baseline synthetic control. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. clear
r; t=0.00 11:59:35

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.00 11:59:35

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.05 11:59:35

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 11:59:35

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 11:59:35

. 
. * Create output folder if it does not already exist
. cd "$path\results"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 11:59:35

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917"
r; t=0.00 11:59:35

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917
r; t=0.00 11:59:35

. baseline_regression
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0027559 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |        .056
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |         .52
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |        .006
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |         .12
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |        .008
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .002
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .288
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9783696 
                 wrote_English |         0       .182 
                  wrote_German |         1       .808 
                  wrote_French |         0        .01 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7962778 
                     Socialist |         1        .93 
                     Political |         1       .986 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0125901   .0135261 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0169868   .0151835 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .009417   .0104662 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0102846   .0107407 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0119941   .0123617 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0102606   .0094263 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0044921   .0050221 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 9ldwu637i1
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 193 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0012003    .507772   .6321244 
          c2 |  .0065936   .2227979   .0569948 
          c3 |  .0136597   .1036269    .015544 
          c4 |  .0165644   .0932642   .0103627 
          c5 |  .0206262   .0725389          0 
          c6 |  .0109073   .1450777   .0207254 
          c7 |  .0061054   .2901554   .0829016 
          c8 |  .0089712   .2227979   .0466321 
          c9 |  .0061654   .2797927   .1606218 
         c10 |  .0083545   .2227979   .0880829 
         c11 |  .0137276   .1502591   .0414508 
         c12 |  .0091183   .2124352   .0621762 
         c13 |  .0099894   .2072539   .0829016 
         c14 |  .0187908   .1295337   .0362694 
         c15 |  .0191567   .1554404   .0518135 
         c16 |  .0257451   .1036269   .0310881 
(110 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .19170984
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04663212

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3164266

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .03166566

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2742128

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .08290155
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=8620.08 14:23:15

. 
. * Manipulate the "Outcomes" tab of the "synth_results.xlsx" spreadsheet, to add percent differences in outcomes.
. * Save the results in another sheet, named "Outcomes2".
. * 
. * Import the "Outcomes" sheet of the "synth_results.xlsx" spreadsheet
. preserve
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. clear 
r; t=0.01 14:23:15

. import excel "$path\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx", sheet("Outcomes") cellrange(A4) firstrow
(5 vars, 55 obs)
r; t=0.01 14:23:15

. ren A Year 
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. drop C D
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. destring Year, replace
Year: all characters numeric; replaced as int
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. gen PctDiff = .
(55 missing values generated)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. set obs 59
Number of observations (_N) was 55, now 59.
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. replace Year = 0 in 56 /* Will become a blank line in the spreadsheet */
(1 real change made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. replace Year = 0 in 57 /* Will become a string named "Averages" in the spreadsheet */
(1 real change made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. replace Year = 18781916 in 58 /* Will have a hyphen in the spreadsheet */
variable Year was int now long
(1 real change made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. replace Year = 19171932 in 59 /* Will have a hyphen in the spreadsheet */
(1 real change made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. mkmat YTreated 
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. mkmat YSynthetic
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. mata 
------------------------------------------------- mata (type end to exit) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 
:         YTreated = st_matrix("YTreated")

:         YSynthetic = st_matrix("YSynthetic")

: 
:         YTreated_pretreatment = YTreated[1..39,]

:         YSynthetic_pretreatment = YSynthetic[1..39,]

:         
:         YTreated_posttreatment = YTreated[40..55,]

:         YSynthetic_posttreatment = YSynthetic[40..55,]

:         
:         YTreated_pretreatment_avg = colsum(YTreated_pretreatment)/rows(YTreated_pretreatment)

:         YSynthetic_pretreatment_avg = colsum(YSynthetic_pretreatment)/rows(YSynthetic_pretreatment)

:         YTreated_posttreatment_avg = colsum(YTreated_posttreatment)/rows(YTreated_posttreatment)

:         YSynthetic_posttreatment_avg = colsum(YSynthetic_posttreatment)/rows(YSynthetic_posttreatment)

:         
:         st_matrix("YTreated_pretreatment_avg",YTreated_pretreatment_avg)

:         st_matrix("YSynthetic_pretreatment_avg",YSynthetic_pretreatment_avg)

:         st_matrix("YTreated_posttreatment_avg",YTreated_posttreatment_avg)

:         st_matrix("YSynthetic_posttreatment_avg",YSynthetic_posttreatment_avg)

: end
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. replace YTreated = YTreated_pretreatment_avg[1,1] if Year == 18781916
(1 real change made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. replace YSynthetic = YSynthetic_pretreatment_avg[1,1] if Year == 18781916
(1 real change made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. replace YTreated = YTreated_posttreatment_avg[1,1] if Year == 19171932
(1 real change made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. replace YSynthetic = YSynthetic_posttreatment_avg[1,1] if Year == 19171932
(1 real change made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. replace PctDiff = (YTreated-YSynthetic)/YSynthetic*100
(57 real changes made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. mkmat Year YTreated YSynthetic PctDiff
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. putexcel set "$path\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx", modify sheet("Outomes2", replace) 
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. putexcel A1 = "Year"
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. putexcel B1 = "Y-Actual"
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. putexcel C1 = "Y-Synthetic"
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. putexcel D1 = "% Difference"
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. putexcel D2 = "(Base = Synthetic)"
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.03 14:23:15

. putexcel A3 = matrix(Year)
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. putexcel B3 = matrix(YTreated)
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. putexcel C3 = matrix(YSynthetic)
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.03 14:23:15

. putexcel D3 = matrix(PctDiff)
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. putexcel A58 = ""
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. putexcel A59 = "Averages"
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.03 14:23:15

. putexcel A60 = "1878-1916"
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. putexcel A61 = "1917-1932"
file C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917\synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. putexcel save
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. mata: mata clear
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. restore
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Drop the two donors who received the largest weights in the previous regression
. * Instead of using the estimation results from the previous synth, we just read in the Excel output to determine who the largest donors were.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Preserve the dataset from the first regression to ensure we use the same unit numbering, since we have to drop units by number.
. preserve
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. 
. * Load the synth results from the first regression to find the numbering of the units which received the largest weights.
. clear
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. import excel "synth_results.xlsx", sheet("Donor Weights") cellrange(A3) firstrow
(3 vars, 195 obs)
r; t=0.02 14:23:15

. 
. ren A Name
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. ren _Co_Number ID
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. ren _W_Weight Weight
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. 
. * Sort descending, so invert, then sort, then invert 
. replace Weight = -1 * Weight
(7 real changes made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. sort Weight
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. replace Weight = -1 * Weight
(7 real changes made)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. 
. * The values of Name and ID in rows 1 and 2 are the values of ID for the donor who received the greatest weight 
. global greatest_donors_Name1 = Name[1]
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

.         global greatest_donors_Name2 = Name[2]
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. global greatest_donors_ID1 = ID[1]
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

.         global greatest_donors_ID2 = ID[2]
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

.         
. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. * Here, we make an exception to our general rule of not calling NumberUnits until after everyone 
. * to be dropped has been dropped. We need to make sure that our numbering is the same as that used in 
. * the previous regression, because we drop units by number.
. * clear
. * snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
. * NumberUnits
. 
. * Restore the dataset from the first regression.
. restore 
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. 
. tabulate Name if Name_no == $greatest_donors_ID1 | Name_no == $greatest_donors_ID2

              Author's name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
----------------------------+-----------------------------------
         Ferdinand Lassalle |         55       50.00       50.00
                  Rodbertus |         55       50.00      100.00
----------------------------+-----------------------------------
                      Total |        110      100.00
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. drop if Name_no == $greatest_donors_ID1 | Name_no == $greatest_donors_ID2 
(110 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. 
. cd "$path\results"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917 - drop 2 biggest donors ie $greatest_donors_Name1 & $greatest_donors_Name2"
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. cd "Treatment 1917 - drop 2 biggest donors ie $greatest_donors_Name1 & $greatest_donors_Name2"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917 - drop 2 biggest donors ie FerdinandLassalle & Rodbertus
r; t=0.00 14:23:15

. baseline_regression
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von Savigny, Friedrich
                              Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav Freytag, Hamann, Hans
                              Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze, Herodotus,
                              Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean Racine,
                              John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift, Joseph
                              Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano, Machiavelli,
                              Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau Senior,
                              Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy Bysshe
                              Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan, Richard
                              Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher, Schmoller,
                              Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas Carlyle,
                              Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter Raleigh,
                              Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William Roper,
                              William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0027014 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |        .055
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |        .003
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .379
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |        .089
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |         .01
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |        .001
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .016
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .446
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9834341 
                 wrote_English |         0       .055 
                  wrote_German |         1       .914 
                  wrote_French |         0       .026 
                   wrote_Greek |         0       .004 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7998382 
                     Socialist |         1        .93 
                     Political |         1       .989 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0125901   .0130516 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0169868   .0135362 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .009417   .0108107 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0102846   .0107511 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0119941   .0102592 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0102606   .0094005 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0044921   .0061692 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 8sv4jhiqe3
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917 - drop 2 biggest donors ie FerdinandLassalle & Rodbertus
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 192 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0012518         .5   .5885417 
          c2 |   .007043    .203125   .0520833 
          c3 |  .0138861    .109375    .015625 
          c4 |  .0181576   .1041667   .0104167 
          c5 |   .022621   .0677083          0 
          c6 |  .0124233       .125    .015625 
          c7 |  .0078262   .2447917     .03125 
          c8 |  .0113146   .1822917   .0208333 
          c9 |  .0083614    .234375    .078125 
         c10 |  .0094585   .1979167    .078125 
         c11 |  .0112086   .1822917   .0833333 
         c12 |  .0094299   .1979167   .0677083 
         c13 |  .0086989   .2604167    .109375 
         c14 |  .0166771    .140625      .0625 
         c15 |  .0195503   .1458333      .0625 
         c16 |  .0256248   .1041667   .0260417 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .19270833
e(pval_joint_post_std): .046875

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3090568

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02914081

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2708333

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .0625
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=8746.75 16:49:02

. 
. global greatest_donors_Name1 = ""
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. global greatest_donors_Name2 = ""
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. global greatest_donors_ID1 = ""
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. global greatest_donors_ID1 = ""
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Robustness: include Hegel
. * We are not sure that "Hegel" refer to Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, or whether it refers to his son, Friedrich Wilhelm Karl, Ritter von Hegel.
. * Therefore, we have excluded Hegel. But to be sure that excluding Hegel does not bias our results, we include Hegel and repeat our regression.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Use snapshot 1, "All authors, all years, including Hegel"; then we drop years outside 1878-1932 and drop Name == "Marx"
. clear
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. snapshot restore $all_authors_all_years_inc_Hegel
r; t=0.01 16:49:02

. drop if Year < 1878
(6,412 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. drop if Year > 1932
(15,572 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. drop if Name == "Marx"
(55 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. keep if !missing(cite_English) & !missing(YearofTranslationtoEnglish)
(1,705 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,835    .0293805    .0667149          0   .6483135

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,560     .006198    .0201449          0   .5368073

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |     10,010     .021387    .0555342          0    .892503

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,285    .0074304    .0335187          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,375    .0363602    .0828631          0          1
r; t=0.01 16:49:02

. compress
  (0 bytes saved)
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. 
. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
                100-John Ruskin |         55        0.51        1.52
           101-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        2.03
               102-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.54
             103-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        3.05
              104-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.55
                      105-Kafka |         55        0.51        4.06
                  106-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.57
                     107-Kelvin |         55        0.51        5.08
                     108-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.58
                  109-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        6.09
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.60
                      110-Külpe |         55        0.51        7.11
                    111-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.61
                 112-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        8.12
                 113-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.63
             114-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        9.14
           115-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.64
              116-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51       10.15
                117-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.66
                     118-Malory |         55        0.51       11.17
                    119-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.68
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.18
            120-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       12.69
                    121-Marlowe |         55        0.51       13.20
              122-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.71
                123-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       14.21
                    124-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.72
                    125-Molière |         55        0.51       15.23
                  126-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.74
                127-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       16.24
                 128-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.75
              129-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       17.26
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.77
                     130-Newton |         55        0.51       18.27
                  131-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.78
           132-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       19.29
      133-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.80
                134-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       20.30
            135-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.81
                    136-Pasteur |         55        0.51       21.32
 137-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.83
       138-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       22.34
                   139-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.84
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.35
             140-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       23.86
           141-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       24.37
                      142-Plato |         55        0.51       24.87
          143-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.38
                   144-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.89
                   145-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.40
        146-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.90
                      147-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.41
                      148-Renan |         55        0.51       27.92
             149-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.43
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       28.93
                      150-Rilke |         55        0.51       29.44
            151-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.95
               152-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.46
                153-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.96
                  154-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.47
                   155-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.98
                156-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.49
             157-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.99
                    158-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.50
             159-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       34.01
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.52
                  160-Schmoller |         55        0.51       35.03
               161-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.53
                   162-Schäffle |         55        0.51       36.04
                     163-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.55
              164-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       37.06
                   165-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.56
                    166-Sombart |         55        0.51       38.07
                  167-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.58
                    168-Spinoza |         55        0.51       39.09
                    169-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.59
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.10
            170-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       40.61
              171-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       41.12
             172-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.62
           173-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       42.13
                174-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.64
                175-Thomas More |         55        0.51       43.15
                    176-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.65
                 177-Thucydides |         55        0.51       44.16
                     178-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.67
                179-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       45.18
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.69
                180-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       46.19
                     181-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.70
                   182-Voltaire |         55        0.51       47.21
               183-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.72
             184-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       48.22
       185-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.73
             186-William Caxton |         55        0.51       49.24
             187-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.75
      188-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.25
           189-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.76
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.27
             190-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.78
               191-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.28
              192-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.79
         193-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.30
                 194-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.81
             195-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.31
                      196-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.82
                  197-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.33
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.84
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.35
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.85
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.36
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.87
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.38
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.88
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.39
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.90
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.41
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.91
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.42
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.93
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.44
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.94
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.45
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.96
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.47
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.97
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.48
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.99
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.50
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       67.01
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.51
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       68.02
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.53
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       69.04
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.54
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       70.05
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.56
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       71.07
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.57
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       72.08
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.59
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       73.10
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.60
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       74.11
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.62
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.13
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.63
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.14
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.65
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.16
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.66
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.17
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.68
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.19
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.70
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.20
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.71
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.22
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.73
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.23
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.74
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.25
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.76
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.26
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.77
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.28
                       73-Hegel |         55        0.51       85.79
                   74-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       86.29
              75-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.80
                76-Henry George |         55        0.51       87.31
                     77-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.82
             78-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       88.32
                      79-Herder |         55        0.51       88.83
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.34
               80-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       89.85
               81-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       90.36
                   82-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.86
                 83-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       91.37
             84-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.88
                      85-Hobbes |         55        0.51       92.39
                       86-Homer |         55        0.51       92.89
                        87-Hume |         55        0.51       93.40
                   88-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.91
               89-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       94.42
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.92
                90-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       95.43
     91-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.94
               92-James Madison |         55        0.51       96.45
                 93-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.95
                 94-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       97.46
              95-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.97
                 96-John Calvin |         55        0.51       98.48
                   97-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.98
                  98-John Locke |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Milton |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,835      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.04 16:49:02

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. 
. * Create output folder if it does not already exist
. cd "$path\results"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917 incl Hegel"
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917 incl Hegel"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917 incl Hegel
r; t=0.00 16:49:02

. baseline_regression
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Hegel, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann
                              Lotze, Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James
                              Madison, Jean Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman,
                              Jonathan Swift, Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo
                              Brentano, Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses
                              Hess, Nassau Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la
                              Barca, Percy Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke,
                              Renan, Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler,
                              Schleiermacher, Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas
                              Browne, Thomas Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt
                              Whitman, Walter Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William
                              Penn, William Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0027653 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |        .066
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .547
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                     Hegel |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |        .001
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |        .003
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |        .061
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |        .006
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .316
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9776724 
                 wrote_English |         0       .128 
                  wrote_German |         1       .866 
                  wrote_French |         0       .006 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7962647 
                     Socialist |         1       .924 
                     Political |         1        .99 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0125901   .0131121 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0169868   .0150635 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .009417   .0106532 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0102846   .0106843 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0119941   .0124491 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0102606   .0091891 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0044921   .0054128 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 6hqdsjlwu5
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917 incl Hegel
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0015971   .4639175   .5103093 
          c2 |  .0067598   .2061856   .0618557 
          c3 |  .0137875   .1134021   .0154639 
          c4 |  .0169327   .0979381   .0103093 
          c5 |  .0210836   .0670103          0 
          c6 |  .0117461   .1391753   .0206186 
          c7 |  .0072554   .2680412   .0360825 
          c8 |  .0097163   .2061856   .0412371 
          c9 |  .0064577   .2835052   .1649485 
         c10 |  .0084896   .2216495   .0927835 
         c11 |    .01373   .1443299   .0412371 
         c12 |  .0098116   .2113402   .0670103 
         c13 |  .0099677   .2164948   .0876289 
         c14 |  .0194801   .1391753   .0360825 
         c15 |  .0202286   .1340206   .0412371 
         c16 |  .0262394   .1030928   .0309278 
(110 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .19587629
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04639175

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3085833

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .03036443

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2727994

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .06597938
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=13141.24 20:28:03

. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Test robustness to choice of V-matrix (indicator variable weights)
. *
. * A recent paper claims that the SCM algorithm does not yield a unique solution for the V-matrix. Arbitrary reordering of the indicator variables and/or the
. * donors can result in a slightly different V-matrix. They propose an algorithm to obtain a unique V, but this algorithm often results in a corner solution, with 
. * nearly all or even all the weight being given to a single indicator variable, which is undesirable. Among other solutions, they suggest testing robustness to
. * different V matrices, including equal weights.
. * 
. * "Design Flaw of the Synthetic Control Method" (working paper)
. * Kuosmanen, Timo and Zhou, Xun and Eskelinen, Juha and Malo, Pekka
. * https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/106390/14/MPRA_paper_106390.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1sR1sVVRlry9m-BuWtWl5wsZ_BM8kN6DmxpaXcjWO9siLKdD1QpfycaEU
. * 28 February 2021
. *
. * Therefore, we test two choices of V: non-nested (which treats regression-based weights as final), and equal weights.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. clear
r; t=0.00 20:28:03

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.00 20:28:03

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.04 20:28:03

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 20:28:03

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 20:28:03

. 
. * Create output folder if it does not already exist
. cd "$path\results"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 20:28:03

. capture mkdir "Alternative V-matrix"
r; t=0.01 20:28:03

. cd "$path\results\Alternative V-matrix"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Alternative V-matrix
r; t=0.00 20:28:03

. 
. * Non-nested 
. capture mkdir "Non-nested (regression weights)"
r; t=0.00 20:28:03

. cd "$path\results\Alternative V-matrix\Non-nested (regression weights)"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Alternative V-matrix\Non-nested (regression weights)
r; t=0.00 20:28:03

. synth cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_Engli
> sh(1878(1)1880), ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0027951 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |        .061
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |         .02
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |        .001
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .515
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |        .004
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |        .004
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |        .075
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |        .005
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .317
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9797373 
                 wrote_English |         0        .16 
                  wrote_German |         1       .837 
                  wrote_French |         0       .005 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7972598 
                     Socialist |         1       .907 
                     Political |         1       .968 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0125901   .0133524 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0169868   .0154739 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .009417   .0107095 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0102846   .0108669 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0119941   .0124055 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0102606   .0092431 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0044921   .0054316 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=7.84 20:28:11

.                 
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.27 20:28:11

.         
. synth_runner cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_Engli
> sh(1878(1)1880), ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>         parallel 
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : k7wfqgzxb7
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Alternative V-matrix\Non-nested (regression weights)
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0015589   .4461538   .4666667 
          c2 |  .0067233   .1794872   .0461538 
          c3 |  .0138789   .0974359   .0205128 
          c4 |  .0169573   .0974359   .0102564 
          c5 |  .0210118   .0615385          0 
          c6 |  .0115849   .1384615   .0102564 
          c7 |  .0071817   .2358974   .0358974 
          c8 |  .0094688    .225641   .0358974 
          c9 |   .006438   .3076923   .1179487 
         c10 |  .0085404   .2410256   .0820513 
         c11 |  .0138047   .1641026   .0461538 
         c12 |  .0096888    .225641   .0615385 
         c13 |  .0101032   .2307692   .0769231 
         c14 |  .0193193   .1641026   .0410256 
         c15 |  .0198888   .1487179   .0410256 
         c16 |   .026119   .0871795   .0358974 
r; t=138.40 20:30:30

.                 
.         save_synth_runner_output
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .18974359
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04615385

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3020287

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02825933

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2754579

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .05470086
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=15.03 20:30:45

.         
. * Cleanup
. drop lead cite_English_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
r; t=0.00 20:30:45

. parallel clean  
r; t=0.02 20:30:45

. 
. * Equal weights
. cd ..
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Alternative V-matrix
r; t=0.00 20:30:45

. capture mkdir "Equal V-weights"
r; t=0.00 20:30:45

. cd "$path\results\Alternative V-matrix\Equal V-weights"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Alternative V-matrix\Equal V-weights
r; t=0.00 20:30:45

. synth cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_Engli
> sh(1878(1)1880), ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace ///
>         customV(0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 ///
>                         0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using user supplied custom V-weights
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |   .003745 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |        .257
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |         .01
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .312
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |         .42
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9800932 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1       .989 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0        .01 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7958627 
                     Socialist |         1       .989 
                     Political |         1       .989 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0125901   .0116743 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0169868    .010271 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .009417   .0100695 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0102846   .0106995 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0119941   .0115941 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0102606   .0103755 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0044921   .0099561 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=7.91 20:30:53

.                 
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.28 20:30:53

.         
. synth_runner cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_Engli
> sh(1878(1)1880), ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>         parallel ///
>         customV(0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 ///
>                         0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556 0.05555555556)
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 2iras9xhx9
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Alternative V-matrix\Equal V-weights
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0006339   .7230769    .825641 
          c2 |  .0087418   .1948718   .0358974 
          c3 |  .0165251   .1333333   .0153846 
          c4 |  .0211949   .0871795   .0051282 
          c5 |  .0239026   .0769231          0 
          c6 |  .0141558   .1538462   .0051282 
          c7 |  .0111961   .2205128   .0102564 
          c8 |  .0144106   .1589744    .025641 
          c9 |  .0112509   .2153846   .0512821 
         c10 |  .0131078   .1897436   .0410256 
         c11 |  .0159479   .1589744   .0512821 
         c12 |  .0122325   .1948718   .0410256 
         c13 |  .0149933   .2051282   .0410256 
         c14 |  .0192181   .1435897   .0564103 
         c15 |  .0212587   .1846154   .0410256 
         c16 |  .0274705   .1128205   .0358974 
r; t=138.05 20:33:11

.         
.         save_synth_runner_output
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .2
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04102564

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3174087

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .01798283

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2352137

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .02735043
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=14.66 20:33:26

. 
.         
. * A related robustness check: does (pseudo-)randomizing the order of the donors and the indicators change the results? 
. * Often, it does. But in our case, it does not. After changing the order of the donors and the indicators, we obtain
. * the same results as non-nested from above.
. *
. * Here, we reverse the order of the donors, while keeping Karl Marx's number the same. 
. *
. * We also change the order of the indicator variables. We have two lists of indicator variables: outcomes and author descriptors. 
. * We reverse the order of variables within each list, and then we swap the two lists. 
. *
. * In the results, the author weights are the same as the non-nested results, but they are labeled with different names than before. 
. *
. * Nevertheless, we obtain the same results as non-nested. 
. *
. * Note that the authors' names now appear wrong. We changed their numbers, but Stata is still mapping names to the same numbers
. * as before. To compare the two sets of results, compare the non-nested donor weights from the top to these new results from the bottom.
. * Since we reversed the numbers of the donors, the two sets of donor weights are the same as long as you reverse them. But ignore the names,
. * since the names are wrong.
. cd ..
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Alternative V-matrix
r; t=0.00 20:33:26

. capture mkdir "Change order of authors & indicators"
r; t=0.00 20:33:26

. cd "$path\results\Alternative V-matrix\Change order of authors & indicators"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Alternative V-matrix\Change order of authors & indicators
r; t=0.00 20:33:26

. clear
r; t=0.00 20:33:26

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.00 20:33:26

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.04 20:33:26

. replace Name_no = Name_no - 195 if Name != "Karl Marx"
(10,725 real changes made)
r; t=0.01 20:33:26

. replace Name_no = -195 if Name_no == 0
(55 real changes made)
r; t=0.00 20:33:26

. replace Name_no = -196 if Name_no == 1
(55 real changes made)
r; t=0.00 20:33:26

. replace Name_no = Name_no * -1 if Name != "Karl Marx"
(10,725 real changes made)
r; t=0.00 20:33:26

. replace Name_no = 197 if Name_no == $trunit & Name != "Karl Marx" 
(55 real changes made)
r; t=0.00 20:33:26

. sort Year Name_no
r; t=0.00 20:33:26

. tsset Name_no Year

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.01 20:33:26

. synth cite_English ///
>         cite_English(1878(1)1880) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_Engli
> sh(1914(1)1916) ///
>         Political Socialist YearofTranslationtoEnglish wrote_Spanish wrote_Italian wrote_Latin wrote_Greek wrote_French wrote_German wrote_English YearofPublication, ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Madison, Jean Racine, John Bunyan,
                              John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift, Joseph Lister,
                              Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano, Machiavelli, Malory,
                              Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau Senior, Newton,
                              Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy Bysshe Shelley,
                              Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan, Richard Cobden,
                              Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher, Schmoller,
                              Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas Carlyle,
                              Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter Raleigh,
                              Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William Roper,
                              William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges, 197
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: cite_English(1878(1)1880) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1902(1)1904)
                              cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1914(1)1916) Political Socialist YearofTranslationtoEnglish wrote_Spanish wrote_Italian wrote_Latin
                              wrote_Greek wrote_French wrote_German wrote_English YearofPublication
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0027951 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |        .317
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |        .005
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |        .075
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |        .004
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |        .004
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |        .515
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .001
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |         .02
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |        .061
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
                       197 |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0044921   .0054316 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0102606   .0092431 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0119941   .0124055 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0102846   .0108669 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .009417   .0107095 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0169868   .0154739 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0125901   .0133524 
                     Political |         1       .968 
                     Socialist |         1       .907 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7972598 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                  wrote_French |         0       .005 
                  wrote_German |         1       .837 
                 wrote_English |         0        .16 
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9797373 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=7.87 20:33:34

.         
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.28 20:33:34

.         
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Citations from newspapers
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. clear
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.04 20:33:34

. 
. * Keep only the authors who are not missing cite_news.
. by Name_no: drop if missing(cite_news)
(9,460 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. 
. * Create output folder if it does not already exist
. cd "$path\results"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. capture mkdir "Newspaper citations"
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. cd "$path\results\Newspaper citations"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Newspaper citations
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. 
. * Since our newspaper dataset is small, we use technique(nr) instead of dfp or bfgs, unless $quick_bug_testing is 1.
. global convergence_newspaper = "nested allopt technique(nr)"
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. if ($quick_bug_testing == 1) {
.         global convergence_newspaper = "technique(dfp)"
r; t=0.00 20:33:34
. }
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. 
. * Check which indicator variables vary within the sample of non-missing values of cite_news.
. * It appears we must omit wrote_Greek, wrote_Latin, wrote_Italian, and wrote_Spanish. 
. * Of the remaining languages - wrote_English, wrote_German, and wrote_French - we omit one to avoid the dummy trap.
. * Usually, we have used Dostoyevsky in Russian in the omitted case, but Dostoyevsky is not present in this sample of cite_news.
. summarize YearofPublication YearofTranslationtoEnglish if !missing(cite_news)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
YearofPubl~n |      1,320    .9692313    .0174515   .9121802    .993509
YearofTran~h |      1,320    .7322304    .0817348   .4722222   .8202614
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. foreach variable of varlist OriginalLanguage wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish Socialist Political {
  2.                 tabulate `variable' if !missing(cite_news)
  3.         }

   Original |
   Language |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
    English |        990       75.00       75.00
     French |        165       12.50       87.50
     German |        165       12.50      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,320      100.00

   Wrote in |
    English |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |        330       25.00       25.00
          1 |        990       75.00      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,320      100.00

   Wrote in |
     German |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      1,155       87.50       87.50
          1 |        165       12.50      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,320      100.00

   Wrote in |
     French |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      1,155       87.50       87.50
          1 |        165       12.50      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,320      100.00

   Wrote in |
      Greek |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      1,320      100.00      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,320      100.00

   Wrote in |
      Latin |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      1,320      100.00      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,320      100.00

   Wrote in |
    Italian |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      1,320      100.00      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,320      100.00

   Wrote in |
    Spanish |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      1,320      100.00      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,320      100.00

  Socialist |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |        660       50.00       50.00
          1 |        660       50.00      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,320      100.00

  Political |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |         55        4.17        4.17
          1 |      1,265       95.83      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      1,320      100.00
r; t=0.00 20:33:34

. 
. synth cite_news ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_news(1914(1)1916) cite_news(1908(1)1910) cite_news(1902(1)1904) cite_news(1896(1)1898) cite_news(1890(1)1892) cite_news(1884(1)1886) cite_news(1878(1)1880), $con
> vergence_newspaper ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Bakunin, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, David Ricardo, Edmund Burke, Ferdinand Lassalle, Frederick Douglass, Henry
                              George, Herbert Spencer, John Locke, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, Kropotkin, Oscar Wilde, Proudhon, Richard Cobden, Robert Owen, Rodbertus,
                              Thomas Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, William Graham Sumner
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_news
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political cite_news(1914(1)1916) cite_news(1908(1)1910)
                              cite_news(1902(1)1904) cite_news(1896(1)1898) cite_news(1890(1)1892) cite_news(1884(1)1886) cite_news(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0052563 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

-----------------------------------
                Co_No | Unit_Weight
----------------------+------------
      Abraham Lincoln |        .004
           Adam Smith |           0
              Bakunin |           0
       Charles Darwin |           0
      Charles Fourier |         .29
        David Ricardo |           0
         Edmund Burke |           0
   Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
   Frederick Douglass |           0
         Henry George |        .013
      Herbert Spencer |           0
           John Locke |           0
          John Ruskin |           0
     John Stuart Mill |           0
            Kropotkin |           0
          Oscar Wilde |        .004
             Proudhon |        .464
       Richard Cobden |           0
          Robert Owen |        .091
            Rodbertus |        .133
       Thomas Carlyle |           0
     Thomas Jefferson |           0
William Graham Sumner |           0
-----------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9651959 
                 wrote_English |         0       .112 
                  wrote_German |         1       .133 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7949379 
                     Socialist |         1       .995 
                     Political |         1       .999 
        cite_news(1914(1)1916) |  .0046385   .0044245 
        cite_news(1908(1)1910) |  .0071623   .0057381 
        cite_news(1902(1)1904) |  .0037117   .0037178 
        cite_news(1896(1)1898) |  .0052153   .0062216 
        cite_news(1890(1)1892) |  .0070009   .0068108 
        cite_news(1884(1)1886) |  .0093149   .0091162 
        cite_news(1878(1)1880) |  .0045146   .0079317 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=1704.97 21:01:59

.                 
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.27 21:01:59

.         
. synth_runner cite_news ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_news(1914(1)1916) cite_news(1908(1)1910) cite_news(1902(1)1904) cite_news(1896(1)1898) cite_news(1890(1)1892) cite_news(1884(1)1886) cite_news(1878(1)1880), $con
> vergence_newspaper ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>         parallel 
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
Small workload/num groups. Temporarily setting number of child processes to 23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 23
pll_id         : jmsvby6j11
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Newspaper citations
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 17 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0011643   .4117647   .5294118 
          c2 |  .0062442   .1764706          0 
          c3 |  .0168928   .0588235          0 
          c4 |   .009481   .1176471   .0588235 
          c5 |   .009336   .1176471   .0588235 
          c6 |  .0079034   .1764706          0 
          c7 |   .007554   .1764706          0 
          c8 |  .0111867   .1176471          0 
          c9 |  .0062334   .2941176   .1764706 
         c10 |  .0069028   .1764706   .0588235 
         c11 |  .0051616   .1764706          0 
         c12 |  .0026353   .3529412   .3529412 
         c13 |  .0044439   .1764706          0 
         c14 |  .0111139   .1176471          0 
         c15 |  .0158559   .1176471          0 
         c16 |   .010404   .1176471   .1176471 
(330 missing values generated)
r; t=11469.23 0:13:08

.                 
.         save_synth_runner_output
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .23529412
e(pval_joint_post_std): 0

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2882804

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .1088325

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2171946

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .07843137
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=14.78 0:13:23

.         
. * Cleanup
. drop lead cite_news_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
r; t=0.00 0:13:23

. parallel clean  
r; t=0.02 0:13:23

. 
. * Test if newspaper citations are fairly well correlated with Ngram citations.
. * We hypothesize that they have different levels, but similar rates of change, so 
. * we perform a log-log regression with fixed effects.
. generate log_cite_English = log(cite_English)
(2 missing values generated)
r; t=0.00 0:13:23

. generate log_cite_news = log(cite_news)
(15 missing values generated)
r; t=0.00 0:13:23

. xtreg log_cite_news log_cite_English i.Year, fe

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =      1,305
Group variable: Name_no                         Number of groups  =         24

R-squared:                                      Obs per group:
     Within  = 0.5061                                         min =         48
     Between = 0.8372                                         avg =       54.4
     Overall = 0.7269                                         max =         55

                                                F(55,1226)        =      22.84
corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.6423                          Prob > F          =     0.0000

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   log_cite_news | Coefficient  Std. err.      t    P>|t|     [95% conf. interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
log_cite_English |   .6599883   .0344212    19.17   0.000     .5924573    .7275193
                 |
            Year |
           1879  |  -.2046776   .1899118    -1.08   0.281    -.5772657    .1679104
           1880  |  -.1227223   .1899157    -0.65   0.518     -.495318    .2498734
           1881  |    .095704   .1900796     0.50   0.615    -.2772134    .4686214
           1882  |  -.1218088   .1881108    -0.65   0.517    -.4908636    .2472459
           1883  |   .0578569   .1882533     0.31   0.759    -.3114775    .4271913
           1884  |  -.1436596   .1884059    -0.76   0.446    -.5132933    .2259742
           1885  |  -.0796932   .1881871    -0.42   0.672    -.4488976    .2895113
           1886  |  -.2349823   .1884891    -1.25   0.213    -.6047792    .1348146
           1887  |  -.0798479   .1884273    -0.42   0.672    -.4495235    .2898277
           1888  |   -.193254   .1906663    -1.01   0.311    -.5673224    .1808143
           1889  |  -.5120404   .1882181    -2.72   0.007    -.8813056   -.1427752
           1890  |  -.4860207    .188583    -2.58   0.010    -.8560018   -.1160396
           1891  |  -.6758934   .1890834    -3.57   0.000    -1.046856   -.3049305
           1892  |  -.4558833   .1890519    -2.41   0.016    -.8267845   -.0849821
           1893  |   -.329243   .1889688    -1.74   0.082     -.699981    .0414951
           1894  |   -.464239   .1910401    -2.43   0.015    -.8390407   -.0894373
           1895  |  -.4709726   .1905863    -2.47   0.014    -.8448841   -.0970611
           1896  |  -.5210711   .1884854    -2.76   0.006    -.8908608   -.1512813
           1897  |  -.7181769   .1886219    -3.81   0.000    -1.088234   -.3481194
           1898  |  -.8647297   .1885767    -4.59   0.000    -1.234698   -.4947609
           1899  |  -.7145449   .1885389    -3.79   0.000     -1.08444   -.3446502
           1900  |  -.7302558   .1885844    -3.87   0.000     -1.10024   -.3602718
           1901  |  -.8831767   .1882354    -4.69   0.000    -1.252476   -.5138776
           1902  |  -1.186394   .1883438    -6.30   0.000    -1.555906   -.8168821
           1903  |  -.9704689   .1883709    -5.15   0.000    -1.340034   -.6009038
           1904  |  -1.051161   .1883788    -5.58   0.000    -1.420742   -.6815808
           1905  |  -1.188873   .1884592    -6.31   0.000    -1.558611   -.8191349
           1906  |  -1.170286    .188644    -6.20   0.000    -1.540386   -.8001847
           1907  |  -1.213882   .1887955    -6.43   0.000     -1.58428   -.8434842
           1908  |  -1.126693   .1888208    -5.97   0.000    -1.497141   -.7562455
           1909  |  -1.065314   .1887914    -5.64   0.000    -1.435704   -.6949235
           1910  |  -1.268045   .1890393    -6.71   0.000    -1.638921   -.8971682
           1911  |  -1.185916   .1888763    -6.28   0.000    -1.556472   -.8153594
           1912  |  -1.173197    .188605    -6.22   0.000    -1.543222   -.8031731
           1913  |  -1.111321   .1902104    -5.84   0.000    -1.484495   -.7381469
           1914  |  -1.120676   .1901246    -5.89   0.000    -1.493682   -.7476704
           1915  |  -1.486328   .1881606    -7.90   0.000     -1.85548   -1.117176
           1916  |  -1.499246   .1880468    -7.97   0.000    -1.868175   -1.130317
           1917  |  -1.368902   .1880371    -7.28   0.000    -1.737812   -.9999919
           1918  |  -1.435249   .1880998    -7.63   0.000    -1.804283   -1.066216
           1919  |  -1.464102    .188257    -7.78   0.000    -1.833443    -1.09476
           1920  |  -1.389564   .1884158    -7.37   0.000    -1.759217   -1.019911
           1921  |  -1.461502   .1903825    -7.68   0.000    -1.835014   -1.087991
           1922  |  -1.421648   .1881957    -7.55   0.000    -1.790869   -1.052427
           1923  |  -1.459695   .1902369    -7.67   0.000    -1.832921    -1.08647
           1924  |  -1.609263   .1885692    -8.53   0.000    -1.979217   -1.239309
           1925  |  -1.604955   .1908666    -8.41   0.000    -1.979417   -1.230494
           1926  |   -1.67666   .1889493    -8.87   0.000     -2.04736   -1.305961
           1927  |  -1.603163   .1888495    -8.49   0.000    -1.973667   -1.232659
           1928  |  -1.704671   .1889265    -9.02   0.000    -2.075326   -1.334016
           1929  |  -1.530745   .1906832    -8.03   0.000    -1.904846   -1.156643
           1930  |  -1.694003    .191007    -8.87   0.000    -2.068739   -1.319266
           1931  |  -1.383762    .188764    -7.33   0.000    -1.754098   -1.013425
           1932  |  -1.368637   .1888258    -7.25   0.000    -1.739095   -.9981795
                 |
           _cons |  -1.237441   .2174071    -5.69   0.000    -1.663972   -.8109098
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |  1.4446268
         sigma_e |  .63663643
             rho |  .83737365   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test that all u_i=0: F(23, 1226) = 126.86                  Prob > F = 0.0000
r; t=0.45 0:13:24

. 
. * Graph citations from Ngram and newspapers for Marx together, so that we can visually see if the two measurements are fairly similar,
. * meaning they are measuring the same thing.
. keep if Name == "Karl Marx"
(1,265 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. sort Year 
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. twoway (connected cite_English Year) (connected cite_news Year)
r; t=0.24 0:13:24

. graph save "Graph" "Ngram & Newspaper.com citations for ''Karl Marx''.gph", replace
file Ngram & Newspaper.com citations for ''Karl Marx''.gph saved
r; t=0.03 0:13:24

. 
. clear
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

.         
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Robustness: using citations in German
. * We don't have years of translation to German for use as an indicator, and YearofTranslationtoEnglish is not included as an indicator.
. * Obviously, we change our outcome and indicators from cite_English to cite_German.
. *
. * We use two different datasets: one with all authors, and one with only German authors.
. *
. * We run synth_runner twice for each dataset (all authors, Germans-only), to obtain two sets of p-values: one for the period until 1932, and one for the period until 1950.
. * Since synth is run just for the visual graph, we run it only once, for the period until 1950, and this lets us visually see what happens by 1932 too.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. 
. *************************************
. * All authors, including non-Germans
. *************************************
. 
. clear
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. snapshot restore $all_authors_all_years_excl_Hegel
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. drop if Year < 1878
(6,384 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. drop if Year > 1950
(11,400 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. drop if Name == "Marx"
(73 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. drop if missing(cite_German)
(365 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     15,695    .0257417    .0618725          0   .6483135

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     16,206    .0056805    .0230685          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |     14,381    .0203028    .0549884          0    .892503

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     14,746    .0077424    .0354745          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
r; t=0.02 0:13:24

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         73        0.45        0.45
                     10-Aquinas |         73        0.45        0.90
                       100-Hume |         73        0.45        1.35
                  101-Hölderlin |         73        0.45        1.80
              102-Immanuel Kant |         73        0.45        2.25
               103-Izaak Walton |         73        0.45        2.70
    104-James Fitzjames Stephen |         73        0.45        3.15
              105-James Madison |         73        0.45        3.60
                106-Jean Racine |         73        0.45        4.05
                107-John Bunyan |         73        0.45        4.50
             108-John C Calhoun |         73        0.45        4.95
                109-John Calvin |         73        0.45        5.41
            11-Archibald Geikie |         73        0.45        5.86
                  110-John Knox |         73        0.45        6.31
                 111-John Locke |         73        0.45        6.76
                112-John Milton |         73        0.45        7.21
                113-John Ruskin |         73        0.45        7.66
           114-John Stuart Mill |         73        0.45        8.11
               115-John Woolman |         73        0.45        8.56
             116-Jonathan Swift |         73        0.45        9.01
              117-Joseph Lister |         73        0.45        9.46
                      118-Kafka |         73        0.45        9.91
                 119-Karl Knies |         73        0.45       10.36
                12-Aristophanes |         73        0.45       10.81
                  120-Karl Marx |         73        0.45       11.26
                     121-Kelvin |         73        0.45       11.71
                     122-Kempis |         73        0.45       12.16
                  123-Kropotkin |         73        0.45       12.61
               124-Kuno Fischer |         73        0.45       13.06
                      125-Külpe |         73        0.45       13.51
                  126-Laspeyres |         73        0.45       13.96
                    127-Leibniz |         73        0.45       14.41
                 128-Lord Acton |         73        0.45       14.86
                 129-Lord Byron |         73        0.45       15.32
                   13-Aristotle |         73        0.45       15.77
             130-Ludwig Büchner |         73        0.45       16.22
           131-Ludwig Feuerbach |         73        0.45       16.67
              132-Lujo Brentano |         73        0.45       17.12
                133-Machiavelli |         73        0.45       17.57
                 134-Mainländer |         73        0.45       18.02
                     135-Malory |         73        0.45       18.47
                    136-Malthus |         73        0.45       18.92
            137-Marcus Aurelius |         73        0.45       19.37
                    138-Marlowe |         73        0.45       19.82
              139-Martin Luther |         73        0.45       20.27
                 14-Arnold Ruge |         73        0.45       20.72
                140-Max Stirner |         73        0.45       21.17
                    141-Mazzini |         73        0.45       21.62
                    142-Molière |         73        0.45       22.07
                  143-Montaigne |         73        0.45       22.52
                144-Montesquieu |         73        0.45       22.97
                 145-Moses Hess |         73        0.45       23.42
          146-Moses Mendelssohn |         73        0.45       23.87
              147-Nassau Senior |         73        0.45       24.32
                     148-Natorp |         73        0.45       24.77
                     149-Newton |         73        0.45       25.23
             15-Auberon Herbert |         73        0.45       25.68
                  150-Nietzsche |         73        0.45       26.13
           151-Oliver Goldsmith |         73        0.45       26.58
      152-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         73        0.45       27.03
                153-Oscar Wilde |         73        0.45       27.48
              154-Otto Liebmann |         73        0.45       27.93
            155-Otto Pfleiderer |         73        0.45       28.38
                    156-Pasteur |         73        0.45       28.83
 157-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         73        0.45       29.28
       158-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         73        0.45       29.73
                   159-Pericles |         73        0.45       30.18
                16-August Bebel |         73        0.45       30.63
           160-Pierre Corneille |         73        0.45       31.08
                      161-Plato |         73        0.45       31.53
          162-Pliny the Younger |         73        0.45       31.98
                   163-Plutarch |         73        0.45       32.43
                   164-Proudhon |         73        0.45       32.88
        165-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         73        0.45       33.33
                      166-Ranke |         73        0.45       33.78
                      167-Renan |         73        0.45       34.23
             168-Richard Cobden |         73        0.45       34.68
                      169-Rilke |         73        0.45       35.14
               17-Auguste Comte |         73        0.45       35.59
            170-Robert Browning |         73        0.45       36.04
               171-Robert Burns |         73        0.45       36.49
                172-Robert Owen |         73        0.45       36.94
                  173-Rodbertus |         73        0.45       37.39
                   174-Rousseau |         73        0.45       37.84
                175-Rudolf Haym |         73        0.45       38.29
                176-SainteBeuve |         73        0.45       38.74
             177-Samuel Johnson |         73        0.45       39.19
                    178-Scheler |         73        0.45       39.64
             179-Schleiermacher |         73        0.45       40.09
                   18-Augustine |         73        0.45       40.54
                  180-Schmoller |         73        0.45       40.99
               181-Schopenhauer |         73        0.45       41.44
                   182-Schäffle |         73        0.45       41.89
             183-Sigismund Beck |         73        0.45       42.34
                     184-Simmel |         73        0.45       42.79
              185-Simon Newcomb |         73        0.45       43.24
                   186-Sismondi |         73        0.45       43.69
                    187-Sombart |         73        0.45       44.14
                  188-Sophocles |         73        0.45       44.59
                    189-Spinoza |         73        0.45       45.05
                     19-Bakunin |         73        0.45       45.50
                    190-Tacitus |         73        0.45       45.95
            191-Theodor Fontane |         73        0.45       46.40
              192-Theodor Lipps |         73        0.45       46.85
                193-Thomas Abbt |         73        0.45       47.30
              194-Thomas Browne |         73        0.45       47.75
             195-Thomas Carlyle |         73        0.45       48.20
           196-Thomas Jefferson |         73        0.45       48.65
                197-Thomas Mann |         73        0.45       49.10
                198-Thomas More |         73        0.45       49.55
                    199-Thoreau |         73        0.45       50.00
                   2-Adam Smith |         73        0.45       50.45
      20-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         73        0.45       50.90
                 200-Thucydides |         73        0.45       51.35
                     201-Thünen |         73        0.45       51.80
                202-Tocqueville |         73        0.45       52.25
                203-Victor Hugo |         73        0.45       52.70
                     204-Virgil |         73        0.45       53.15
                   205-Voltaire |         73        0.45       53.60
               206-Walt Whitman |         73        0.45       54.05
             207-Walter Raleigh |         73        0.45       54.50
                  208-Wentscher |         73        0.45       54.95
           209-Wilhelm Drobisch |         73        0.45       55.41
                     21-Bastiat |         73        0.45       55.86
            210-Wilhelm Roscher |         73        0.45       56.31
       211-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         73        0.45       56.76
             212-William Caxton |         73        0.45       57.21
             213-William Godwin |         73        0.45       57.66
      214-William Graham Sumner |         73        0.45       58.11
           215-William Harrison |         73        0.45       58.56
             216-William Harvey |         73        0.45       59.01
               217-William Penn |         73        0.45       59.46
         218-William Wordsworth |         73        0.45       59.91
                 219-Windelband |         73        0.45       60.36
           22-Benjamin Constant |         73        0.45       60.81
             220-Wollstonecraft |         73        0.45       61.26
                      221-Wundt |         73        0.45       61.71
                  222-de Gouges |         73        0.45       62.16
           23-Benjamin Franklin |         73        0.45       62.61
                     24-Bentham |         73        0.45       63.06
             25-Bernard Bolzano |         73        0.45       63.51
                     26-Blanqui |         73        0.45       63.96
                 27-Bruno Bauer |         73        0.45       64.41
            28-Bruno Hildebrand |         73        0.45       64.86
                 29-Carl Stumpf |         73        0.45       65.32
                    3-Aeschylus |         73        0.45       65.77
                     30-Cellini |         73        0.45       66.22
                   31-Cervantes |         73        0.45       66.67
              32-Charles Darwin |         73        0.45       67.12
             33-Charles Fourier |         73        0.45       67.57
                     34-Chaucer |         73        0.45       68.02
         35-Christian Schreiber |         73        0.45       68.47
  36-Christian Wilhelm von Dohm |         73        0.45       68.92
                      37-Cicero |         73        0.45       69.37
                  38-Clausewitz |         73        0.45       69.82
                  39-Copernicus |         73        0.45       70.27
                        4-Aesop |         73        0.45       70.72
             40-Dante Alighieri |         73        0.45       71.17
               41-David Ricardo |         73        0.45       71.62
                   42-Descartes |         73        0.45       72.07
          43-Dietrich Tiedemann |         73        0.45       72.52
                     44-Dilthey |         73        0.45       72.97
                 45-Dostoyevsky |         73        0.45       73.42
                      46-Dryden |         73        0.45       73.87
                    47-Durkheim |         73        0.45       74.32
              48-E T A Hoffmann |         73        0.45       74.77
                  49-Ebbinghaus |         73        0.45       75.23
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         73        0.45       75.68
                50-Edmund Burke |         73        0.45       76.13
              51-Edmund Spenser |         73        0.45       76.58
               52-Eduard Beneke |         73        0.45       77.03
            53-Eduard Bernstein |         73        0.45       77.48
               54-Eduard Zeller |         73        0.45       77.93
         55-Eduard von Hartmann |         73        0.45       78.38
              56-Edward Bellamy |         73        0.45       78.83
               57-Edward Jenner |         73        0.45       79.28
                   58-Epictetus |         73        0.45       79.73
               59-Eugen Dühring |         73        0.45       80.18
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         73        0.45       80.63
                   60-Euripides |         73        0.45       81.08
                     61-Faraday |         73        0.45       81.53
          62-Ferdinand Lassalle |         73        0.45       81.98
           63-Ferdinand Tönnies |         73        0.45       82.43
                      64-Fichte |         73        0.45       82.88
               65-Francis Bacon |         73        0.45       83.33
              66-Franz Brentano |         73        0.45       83.78
          67-Frederick Douglass |         73        0.45       84.23
                       68-Frege |         73        0.45       84.68
               69-Friedrich Ast |         73        0.45       85.14
               7-Alexander Pope |         73        0.45       85.59
  70-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         73        0.45       86.04
   71-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         73        0.45       86.49
            72-Friedrich Krause |         73        0.45       86.94
              73-Friedrich List |         73        0.45       87.39
          74-Friedrich Schiller |         73        0.45       87.84
          75-Friedrich Schlegel |         73        0.45       88.29
              76-Fritz Schultze |         73        0.45       88.74
                   77-Froissart |         73        0.45       89.19
                      78-Goethe |         73        0.45       89.64
    79-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         73        0.45       90.09
                8-Amadeus Wendt |         73        0.45       90.54
       80-Gottlob Ernst Schulze |         73        0.45       90.99
              81-Grimmelshausen |         73        0.45       91.44
              82-Gustav Freytag |         73        0.45       91.89
            83-Gustav Schönberg |         73        0.45       92.34
                      84-Hamann |         73        0.45       92.79
     85-Hans Christian Andersen |         73        0.45       93.24
              86-Heinrich Feder |         73        0.45       93.69
                   87-Helmholtz |         73        0.45       94.14
              88-Henry Fielding |         73        0.45       94.59
                89-Henry George |         73        0.45       95.05
                9-Ambroise Paré |         73        0.45       95.50
                     90-Herbart |         73        0.45       95.95
             91-Herbert Spencer |         73        0.45       96.40
                      92-Herder |         73        0.45       96.85
               93-Hermann Cohen |         73        0.45       97.30
               94-Hermann Lotze |         73        0.45       97.75
                   95-Herodotus |         73        0.45       98.20
                 96-Hippocrates |         73        0.45       98.65
             97-Hippolyte Taine |         73        0.45       99.10
                      98-Hobbes |         73        0.45       99.55
                       99-Homer |         73        0.45      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     16,206      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1950
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.06 0:13:24

. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. 
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917, German citations"
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, German citations"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. capture mkdir "All authors, including non-Germans"
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\All authors, including non-Germans"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\All authors, including non-Germans
r; t=0.00 0:13:24

. 
. synth cite_German ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish Socialist Political /// 
>         cite_German(1914(1)1916) cite_German(1908(1)1910) cite_German(1902(1)1904) cite_German(1896(1)1898) cite_German(1890(1)1892) cite_German(1884(1)1886) cite_German(1878
> (1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1950) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Amadeus Wendt, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas,
                              Archibald Geikie, Aristophanes, Aristotle, Arnold Ruge, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr,
                              Bastiat, Benjamin Constant, Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bernard Bolzano, Blanqui, Bruno Bauer, Bruno Hildebrand, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes,
                              Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Christian Schreiber, Christian Wilhelm von Dohm, Cicero, Clausewitz, Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David
                              Ricardo, Descartes, Dietrich Tiedemann, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund Spenser, Eduard
                              Beneke, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Eugen Dühring, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Ast, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich Krause, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Friedrich Schlegel, Fritz Schultze, Froissart, Goethe,
                              Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Gottlob Ernst Schulze, Grimmelshausen, Gustav Freytag, Gustav Schönberg, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Heinrich
                              Feder, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze, Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte
                              Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean Racine, John Bunyan, John C
                              Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift, Joseph Lister, Kafka, Karl
                              Knies, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Kuno Fischer, Külpe, Laspeyres, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo
                              Brentano, Machiavelli, Mainländer, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne,
                              Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Moses Mendelssohn, Nassau Senior, Natorp, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto
                              Liebmann, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger,
                              Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan, Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau,
                              Rudolf Haym, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher, Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Sigismund Beck, Simmel, Simon Newcomb,
                              Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Theodor Lipps, Thomas Abbt, Thomas Browne, Thomas Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson,
                              Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter Raleigh, Wentscher,
                              Wilhelm Drobisch, Wilhelm Roscher, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey,
                              William Penn, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_German
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935
                              1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish Socialist Political
                              cite_German(1914(1)1916) cite_German(1908(1)1910) cite_German(1902(1)1904) cite_German(1896(1)1898) cite_German(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_German(1884(1)1886) cite_German(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0005095 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Amadeus Wendt |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
               Arnold Ruge |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .498
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
           Bernard Bolzano |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Bruno Bauer |           0
          Bruno Hildebrand |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
       Christian Schreiber |           0
Christian Wilhelm von Dohm |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
        Dietrich Tiedemann |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
             Eduard Beneke |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
             Eugen Dühring |         .25
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
             Friedrich Ast |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
          Friedrich Krause |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
        Friedrich Schlegel |           0
            Fritz Schultze |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |        .003
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
     Gottlob Ernst Schulze |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
          Gustav Schönberg |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
            Heinrich Feder |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                Karl Knies |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
              Kuno Fischer |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                 Laspeyres |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                Mainländer |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
         Moses Mendelssohn |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Natorp |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |        .012
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
             Otto Liebmann |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .049
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               Rudolf Haym |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
            Sigismund Beck |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |         .18
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Theodor Lipps |           0
               Thomas Abbt |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
                 Wentscher |           0
          Wilhelm Drobisch |           0
           Wilhelm Roscher |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |        .008
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9858656 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1       .951 
                  wrote_French |         0       .049 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
                     Socialist |         1       .977 
                     Political |         1       .727 
      cite_German(1914(1)1916) |  .0028055   .0024494 
      cite_German(1908(1)1910) |  .0025964   .0023775 
      cite_German(1902(1)1904) |  .0025082   .0028358 
      cite_German(1896(1)1898) |  .0022057   .0018344 
      cite_German(1890(1)1892) |  .0016925   .0015446 
      cite_German(1884(1)1886) |  .0008307   .0010553 
      cite_German(1878(1)1880) |  .0007495   .0010427 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=121.61 0:15:26

.                         
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.33 0:15:26

.         
. * We run the same synth_runner twice, just with different post-treatment years in memory
. capture program drop German_synth_runner
r; t=0.00 0:15:26

. program define German_synth_runner
  1. 
.         synth_runner cite_German ///
>                 YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish Socialist Political ///
>                 cite_German(1914(1)1916) cite_German(1908(1)1910) cite_German(1902(1)1904) cite_German(1896(1)1898) cite_German(1890(1)1892) cite_German(1884(1)1886) cite_Ger
> man(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>                 trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>                 noredo_tr_error ///
>                 gen_vars ///
>                 keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>                 parallel 
  2.                         
.                 save_synth_runner_output
  3.                 
.                 * Cleanup
.                 drop lead cite_German_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
  4.                 parallel clean  
  5.                 
. end
r; t=0.00 0:15:26

.         
. * synth_runner to get p-values for the whole period to 1950
. capture mkdir "synth_runner to 1950"
r; t=0.00 0:15:26

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\All authors, including non-Germans\synth_runner to 1950"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\All authors, including non-Germans\synth_runner to 1950
r; t=0.00 0:15:26

. German_synth_runner 
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : ezfg19dp13
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\All authors, including non-Germans\synth_runner to 1950
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 203 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0005887    .320197   .3743842 
          c2 |  .0034557   .0837438   .0098522 
          c3 |   .005428   .0394089   .0049261 
          c4 |  .0037013   .1182266   .0197044 
          c5 |  .0032154   .1280788   .0295567 
          c6 |  .0036885   .1034483   .0197044 
          c7 |  .0034253   .1724138   .0591133 
          c8 |  .0039607   .1330049   .0147783 
          c9 |  .0020595    .226601   .1527094 
         c10 |  .0020213   .2413793   .1625616 
         c11 |  .0033322   .1576355   .0640394 
         c12 |   .003356   .1576355   .0837438 
         c13 |  .0028731   .1625616   .0935961 
         c14 |  .0030085   .1724138   .0985222 
         c15 |  .0043593   .1428571   .0738916 
         c16 |  .0034447   .2019704   .0837438 
         c17 |  .0050291   .1330049   .0591133 
         c18 |  .0032636   .1871921   .0837438 
         c19 |  .0008334   .4236453   .4630542 
         c20 |  .0017608   .2561576    .226601 
         c21 |  .0013292   .3497537   .2660099 
         c22 |  .0020317   .2167488   .1527094 
         c23 |  .0008244   .3990148   .4729064 
         c24 | -.0005201   .4236453   .5665025 
         c25 |  .0001482   .6305419    .862069 
         c26 |  .0014731   .3004926   .2413793 
         c27 |  .0005926   .4630542   .6305419 
         c28 |  .0045347   .2167488    .137931 
         c29 |  .0055206   .1871921     .08867 
         c30 |  .0114144   .1625616   .0837438 
         c31 |  .0143725   .1477833   .0591133 
         c32 |  .0105719   .1625616   .0591133 
         c33 |  .0072817    .226601   .0985222 
         c34 |  .0068439   .1576355   .0640394 
(1,314 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .25615764
e(pval_joint_post_std): .09359606

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .4217515

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .06173785

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3210181

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .1339901
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=7813.21 2:25:39

.         
. * synth_runner to get p-values for only the period to 1932
. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\All authors, including non-Germans"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\All authors, including non-Germans
r; t=0.00 2:25:39

. capture mkdir "synth_runner to 1932"
r; t=0.00 2:25:39

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\All authors, including non-Germans\synth_runner to 1932"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\All authors, including non-Germans\synth_runner to 1932
r; t=0.00 2:25:39

. drop if Year > 1932 
(3,996 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 2:25:39

. German_synth_runner
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : nu5bpimo15
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\All authors, including non-Germans\synth_runner to 1932
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 203 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0005887    .320197   .3743842 
          c2 |  .0034557   .0837438   .0098522 
          c3 |   .005428   .0394089   .0049261 
          c4 |  .0037013   .1182266   .0197044 
          c5 |  .0032154   .1280788   .0295567 
          c6 |  .0036885   .1034483   .0197044 
          c7 |  .0034253   .1724138   .0591133 
          c8 |  .0039607   .1330049   .0147783 
          c9 |  .0020595    .226601   .1527094 
         c10 |  .0020213   .2413793   .1625616 
         c11 |  .0033322   .1576355   .0640394 
         c12 |   .003356   .1576355   .0837438 
         c13 |  .0028731   .1625616   .0935961 
         c14 |  .0030085   .1724138   .0985222 
         c15 |  .0043593   .1428571   .0738916 
         c16 |  .0034447   .2019704   .0837438 
(990 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .19704433
e(pval_joint_post_std): .06896552

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2433054

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .03106803

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2298851

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .06305419
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=7750.68 4:34:50

. 
. *************************************
. * German authors only
. * Since all these authors have wrote_German == 1, we eliminate the language indicator variables
. *************************************
. 
. clear
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. snapshot restore $all_authors_all_years_excl_Hegel
r; t=0.01 4:34:50

. drop if Year < 1878
(6,384 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. drop if Year > 1950
(11,400 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. drop if Name == "Marx"
(73 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. drop if missing(cite_German)
(365 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. keep if wrote_German == 1
(9,855 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |      5,840    .0066087    .0277491          0    .510591

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |      6,351    .0073348    .0342207          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      4,526     .004634    .0142422          0   .3107202

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |      5,256    .0021256    .0086199          0   .2150744

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |        165    .0030782    .0050305          0   .0363627
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. NumberUnits

                 Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Amadeus Wendt |         73        1.15        1.15
10-Christian Wilhelm von Dohm |         73        1.15        2.30
                11-Clausewitz |         73        1.15        3.45
        12-Dietrich Tiedemann |         73        1.15        4.60
                   13-Dilthey |         73        1.15        5.75
            14-E T A Hoffmann |         73        1.15        6.90
                15-Ebbinghaus |         73        1.15        8.05
             16-Eduard Beneke |         73        1.15        9.20
          17-Eduard Bernstein |         73        1.15       10.34
             18-Eduard Zeller |         73        1.15       11.49
       19-Eduard von Hartmann |         73        1.15       12.64
                2-Arnold Ruge |         73        1.15       13.79
             20-Eugen Dühring |         73        1.15       14.94
        21-Ferdinand Lassalle |         73        1.15       16.09
         22-Ferdinand Tönnies |         73        1.15       17.24
                    23-Fichte |         73        1.15       18.39
            24-Franz Brentano |         73        1.15       19.54
                     25-Frege |         73        1.15       20.69
             26-Friedrich Ast |         73        1.15       21.84
27-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         73        1.15       22.99
 28-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         73        1.15       24.14
          29-Friedrich Krause |         73        1.15       25.29
               3-August Bebel |         73        1.15       26.44
            30-Friedrich List |         73        1.15       27.59
        31-Friedrich Schiller |         73        1.15       28.74
        32-Friedrich Schlegel |         73        1.15       29.89
            33-Fritz Schultze |         73        1.15       31.03
                    34-Goethe |         73        1.15       32.18
  35-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         73        1.15       33.33
     36-Gottlob Ernst Schulze |         73        1.15       34.48
            37-Grimmelshausen |         73        1.15       35.63
            38-Gustav Freytag |         73        1.15       36.78
          39-Gustav Schönberg |         73        1.15       37.93
     4-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         73        1.15       39.08
                    40-Hamann |         73        1.15       40.23
            41-Heinrich Feder |         73        1.15       41.38
                 42-Helmholtz |         73        1.15       42.53
                   43-Herbart |         73        1.15       43.68
                    44-Herder |         73        1.15       44.83
             45-Hermann Cohen |         73        1.15       45.98
             46-Hermann Lotze |         73        1.15       47.13
                 47-Hölderlin |         73        1.15       48.28
             48-Immanuel Kant |         73        1.15       49.43
                     49-Kafka |         73        1.15       50.57
            5-Bernard Bolzano |         73        1.15       51.72
                50-Karl Knies |         73        1.15       52.87
                 51-Karl Marx |         73        1.15       54.02
              52-Kuno Fischer |         73        1.15       55.17
                     53-Külpe |         73        1.15       56.32
                 54-Laspeyres |         73        1.15       57.47
            55-Ludwig Büchner |         73        1.15       58.62
          56-Ludwig Feuerbach |         73        1.15       59.77
                57-Mainländer |         73        1.15       60.92
             58-Martin Luther |         73        1.15       62.07
               59-Max Stirner |         73        1.15       63.22
                6-Bruno Bauer |         73        1.15       64.37
                60-Moses Hess |         73        1.15       65.52
         61-Moses Mendelssohn |         73        1.15       66.67
                    62-Natorp |         73        1.15       67.82
                 63-Nietzsche |         73        1.15       68.97
             64-Otto Liebmann |         73        1.15       70.11
                     65-Ranke |         73        1.15       71.26
                     66-Rilke |         73        1.15       72.41
                 67-Rodbertus |         73        1.15       73.56
               68-Rudolf Haym |         73        1.15       74.71
                   69-Scheler |         73        1.15       75.86
           7-Bruno Hildebrand |         73        1.15       77.01
            70-Schleiermacher |         73        1.15       78.16
                 71-Schmoller |         73        1.15       79.31
              72-Schopenhauer |         73        1.15       80.46
                  73-Schäffle |         73        1.15       81.61
            74-Sigismund Beck |         73        1.15       82.76
                    75-Simmel |         73        1.15       83.91
                   76-Sombart |         73        1.15       85.06
           77-Theodor Fontane |         73        1.15       86.21
             78-Theodor Lipps |         73        1.15       87.36
               79-Thomas Abbt |         73        1.15       88.51
                8-Carl Stumpf |         73        1.15       89.66
               80-Thomas Mann |         73        1.15       90.80
                    81-Thünen |         73        1.15       91.95
                 82-Wentscher |         73        1.15       93.10
          83-Wilhelm Drobisch |         73        1.15       94.25
           84-Wilhelm Roscher |         73        1.15       95.40
      85-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         73        1.15       96.55
                86-Windelband |         73        1.15       97.70
                     87-Wundt |         73        1.15       98.85
        9-Christian Schreiber |         73        1.15      100.00
------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                        Total |      6,351      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1950
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.03 4:34:50

. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. 
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917, German citations"
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, German citations"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. capture mkdir "German authors only"
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\German authors only"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\German authors only
r; t=0.00 4:34:50

. 
. synth cite_German ///
>         YearofPublication Socialist Political /// 
>         cite_German(1914(1)1916) cite_German(1908(1)1910) cite_German(1902(1)1904) cite_German(1896(1)1898) cite_German(1890(1)1892) cite_German(1884(1)1886) cite_German(1878
> (1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1950) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Amadeus Wendt, Arnold Ruge, August Bebel, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bernard Bolzano, Bruno Bauer, Bruno Hildebrand, Carl Stumpf, Christian
                              Schreiber, Christian Wilhelm von Dohm, Clausewitz, Dietrich Tiedemann, Dilthey, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Eduard Beneke, Eduard Bernstein,
                              Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Eugen Dühring, Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Franz Brentano, Frege, Friedrich Ast, Friedrich
                              Carl von Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich Krause, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Friedrich Schlegel, Fritz Schultze, Goethe,
                              Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Gottlob Ernst Schulze, Grimmelshausen, Gustav Freytag, Gustav Schönberg, Hamann, Heinrich Feder, Helmholtz, Herbart,
                              Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Kafka, Karl Knies, Kuno Fischer, Külpe, Laspeyres, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig
                              Feuerbach, Mainländer, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Moses Hess, Moses Mendelssohn, Natorp, Nietzsche, Otto Liebmann, Ranke, Rilke, Rodbertus,
                              Rudolf Haym, Scheler, Schleiermacher, Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Sigismund Beck, Simmel, Sombart, Theodor Fontane, Theodor Lipps, Thomas
                              Abbt, Thomas Mann, Thünen, Wentscher, Wilhelm Drobisch, Wilhelm Roscher, Wilhelm von Humboldt, Windelband, Wundt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_German
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935
                              1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication Socialist Political cite_German(1914(1)1916) cite_German(1908(1)1910) cite_German(1902(1)1904) cite_German(1896(1)1898)
                              cite_German(1890(1)1892) cite_German(1884(1)1886) cite_German(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0004888 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
             Amadeus Wendt |           0
               Arnold Ruge |           0
              August Bebel |        .201
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
           Bernard Bolzano |           0
               Bruno Bauer |           0
          Bruno Hildebrand |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
       Christian Schreiber |           0
Christian Wilhelm von Dohm |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
        Dietrich Tiedemann |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
             Eduard Beneke |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
             Eugen Dühring |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
                     Frege |           0
             Friedrich Ast |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
          Friedrich Krause |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
        Friedrich Schlegel |           0
            Fritz Schultze |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
     Gottlob Ernst Schulze |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
          Gustav Schönberg |           0
                    Hamann |           0
            Heinrich Feder |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
                   Herbart |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                Karl Knies |           0
              Kuno Fischer |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                 Laspeyres |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
                Mainländer |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .583
                Moses Hess |           0
         Moses Mendelssohn |           0
                    Natorp |        .105
                 Nietzsche |           0
             Otto Liebmann |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Rilke |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
               Rudolf Haym |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |        .044
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
            Sigismund Beck |           0
                    Simmel |           0
                   Sombart |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Theodor Lipps |           0
               Thomas Abbt |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
                    Thünen |           0
                 Wentscher |           0
          Wilhelm Drobisch |           0
           Wilhelm Roscher |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
                Windelband |           0
                     Wundt |        .068
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .8706468   .8656095 
                     Socialist |         1       .201 
                     Political |         1       .828 
      cite_German(1914(1)1916) |  .0028055   .0027801 
      cite_German(1908(1)1910) |  .0025964   .0026069 
      cite_German(1902(1)1904) |  .0025082   .0027095 
      cite_German(1896(1)1898) |  .0022057   .0021277 
      cite_German(1890(1)1892) |  .0016925   .0016639 
      cite_German(1884(1)1886) |  .0008307   .0010988 
      cite_German(1878(1)1880) |  .0007495   .0009114 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=7.77 4:34:58

.                         
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.29 4:34:58

.         
. * We run the same synth_runner twice, just with different post-treatment years in memory
. capture program drop German_synth_runner
r; t=0.00 4:34:58

. program define German_synth_runner
  1. 
.         synth_runner cite_German ///
>                 YearofPublication Socialist Political ///
>                 cite_German(1914(1)1916) cite_German(1908(1)1910) cite_German(1902(1)1904) cite_German(1896(1)1898) cite_German(1890(1)1892) cite_German(1884(1)1886) cite_Ger
> man(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>                 trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>                 noredo_tr_error ///
>                 gen_vars ///
>                 keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>                 parallel 
  2.                         
.                 save_synth_runner_output
  3.                 
.                 * Cleanup
.                 drop lead cite_German_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
  4.                 parallel clean  
  5.                 
. end
r; t=0.00 4:34:58

.         
. * synth_runner to get p-values for the whole period to 1950
. capture mkdir "synth_runner to 1950"
r; t=0.00 4:34:58

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\German authors only\synth_runner to 1950"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\German authors only\synth_runner to 1950
r; t=0.00 4:34:58

. German_synth_runner     
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : rq8o4xft17
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\German authors only\synth_runner to 1950
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 81 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0007925   .2716049   .2716049 
          c2 |  .0040404   .0617284   .0123457 
          c3 |  .0063479   .0617284          0 
          c4 |  .0037749   .1481481   .0246914 
          c5 |  .0039716   .0740741   .0123457 
          c6 |  .0047149   .0864198   .0123457 
          c7 |  .0046365   .1234568   .0864198 
          c8 |  .0048859   .1604938   .0123457 
          c9 |  .0037985   .2098765   .1111111 
         c10 |  .0052335   .1604938   .0617284 
         c11 |  .0051234   .1481481   .0740741 
         c12 |  .0062297   .1728395   .0493827 
         c13 |  .0056538   .1358025   .0617284 
         c14 |  .0060879   .2098765   .0493827 
         c15 |  .0077812   .1358025   .0493827 
         c16 |  .0074062   .1111111   .0617284 
         c17 |  .0075914   .1481481   .0740741 
         c18 |  .0054094   .1975309   .0987654 
         c19 |  .0033769   .2962963   .2345679 
         c20 |  .0037021   .2469136   .1851852 
         c21 |  .0030769   .2592593   .2098765 
         c22 |  .0034517   .2222222   .1851852 
         c23 |   .002415   .3209877   .2592593 
         c24 |  .0017618   .3209877   .2592593 
         c25 |  .0018825   .3703704   .2592593 
         c26 |  .0037504   .1851852   .1604938 
         c27 |  .0029486   .2345679   .2839506 
         c28 |  .0069152   .1851852   .1975309 
         c29 |  .0085037   .1481481   .1234568 
         c30 |  .0152839   .2098765   .1604938 
         c31 |  .0198923   .1481481   .0987654 
         c32 |  .0147168   .1851852   .1234568 
         c33 |  .0115374   .2345679   .1481481 
         c34 |  .0092347   .1975309   .1358025 
(365 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .19753086
e(pval_joint_post_std): .14814815

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3774337

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .06757938

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2953818

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .08395062
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=198.46 4:38:16

.         
. * synth_runner to get p-values for only the period to 1932
. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\German authors only"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\German authors only
r; t=0.00 4:38:16

. capture mkdir "synth_runner to 1932"
r; t=0.00 4:38:16

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\German authors only\synth_runner to 1932"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\German authors only\synth_runner to 1932
r; t=0.00 4:38:16

. drop if Year > 1932 
(1,566 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 4:38:16

. German_synth_runner     
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : gjasl12919
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, German citations\German authors only\synth_runner to 1932
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 81 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0007925   .2716049   .2716049 
          c2 |  .0040404   .0617284   .0123457 
          c3 |  .0063479   .0617284          0 
          c4 |  .0037749   .1481481   .0246914 
          c5 |  .0039716   .0740741   .0123457 
          c6 |  .0047149   .0864198   .0123457 
          c7 |  .0046365   .1234568   .0864198 
          c8 |  .0048859   .1604938   .0123457 
          c9 |  .0037985   .2098765   .1111111 
         c10 |  .0052335   .1604938   .0617284 
         c11 |  .0051234   .1481481   .0740741 
         c12 |  .0062297   .1728395   .0493827 
         c13 |  .0056538   .1358025   .0617284 
         c14 |  .0060879   .2098765   .0493827 
         c15 |  .0077812   .1358025   .0493827 
         c16 |  .0074062   .1111111   .0617284 
(275 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .16049383
e(pval_joint_post_std): .0617284

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2195243

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .03234652

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2127255

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .03950617
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=195.91 4:41:32

.         
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Robustness: using citations in French
. * We don't have years of translation to French for use as an indicator, and YearofTranslationtoEnglish is not included as an indicator.
. * Obviously, we change our outcome and indicators from cite_English to cite_French.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************  
.         
. clear
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

. snapshot restore $all_authors_all_years_excl_Hegel
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

. drop if Year < 1878
(6,384 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

. drop if Year > 1932
(15,504 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

. drop if Name == "Marx"
(55 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

. drop if missing(cite_French)
(1,650 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,835     .029072    .0666798          0   .6483135

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,835     .005883     .019746          0   .5368073

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |     10,835    .0195948    .0536601          0    .892503

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,340    .0072866    .0334182          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
r; t=0.01 4:41:32

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
                      100-Kafka |         55        0.51        1.52
                  101-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        2.03
                     102-Kelvin |         55        0.51        2.54
                     103-Kempis |         55        0.51        3.05
                  104-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        3.55
               105-Kuno Fischer |         55        0.51        4.06
                  106-Laspeyres |         55        0.51        4.57
                    107-Leibniz |         55        0.51        5.08
                 108-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        5.58
                 109-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        6.09
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.60
             110-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        7.11
           111-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        7.61
              112-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        8.12
                113-Machiavelli |         55        0.51        8.63
                 114-Mainländer |         55        0.51        9.14
                     115-Malory |         55        0.51        9.64
                    116-Malthus |         55        0.51       10.15
            117-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       10.66
                    118-Marlowe |         55        0.51       11.17
              119-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       11.68
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.18
                120-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       12.69
                    121-Mazzini |         55        0.51       13.20
                    122-Molière |         55        0.51       13.71
                  123-Montaigne |         55        0.51       14.21
                124-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       14.72
          125-Moses Mendelssohn |         55        0.51       15.23
              126-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       15.74
                     127-Natorp |         55        0.51       16.24
                     128-Newton |         55        0.51       16.75
                  129-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       17.26
                 13-Arnold Ruge |         55        0.51       17.77
           130-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.27
      131-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       18.78
                132-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.29
              133-Otto Liebmann |         55        0.51       19.80
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.30
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.81
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.32
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.83
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.34
           139-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       22.84
             14-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       23.35
                      140-Plato |         55        0.51       23.86
          141-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       24.37
                   142-Plutarch |         55        0.51       24.87
                   143-Proudhon |         55        0.51       25.38
        144-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       25.89
                      145-Ranke |         55        0.51       26.40
                      146-Renan |         55        0.51       26.90
             147-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       27.41
                      148-Rilke |         55        0.51       27.92
            149-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       28.43
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       28.93
               150-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       29.44
                151-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       29.95
                  152-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       30.46
                   153-Rousseau |         55        0.51       30.96
                154-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       31.47
             155-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       31.98
                    156-Scheler |         55        0.51       32.49
             157-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       32.99
                  158-Schmoller |         55        0.51       33.50
               159-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       34.01
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.52
                   160-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.03
                     161-Simmel |         55        0.51       35.53
              162-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.04
                   163-Sismondi |         55        0.51       36.55
                    164-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.06
                  165-Sophocles |         55        0.51       37.56
                    166-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.07
                    167-Tacitus |         55        0.51       38.58
              168-Theodor Lipps |         55        0.51       39.09
                169-Thomas Abbt |         55        0.51       39.59
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.10
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.61
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.12
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.62
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.13
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.64
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.15
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.65
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.16
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.67
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.18
                     18-Bastiat |         55        0.51       45.69
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.19
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.70
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.21
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.72
                  184-Wentscher |         55        0.51       48.22
            185-Wilhelm Roscher |         55        0.51       48.73
       186-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       49.24
             187-William Caxton |         55        0.51       49.75
             188-William Godwin |         55        0.51       50.25
      189-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.76
           19-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       51.27
           190-William Harrison |         55        0.51       51.78
             191-William Harvey |         55        0.51       52.28
               192-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.79
         193-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.30
                 194-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.81
             195-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.31
                      196-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.82
                  197-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.33
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.84
           20-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.35
                     21-Bentham |         55        0.51       56.85
                     22-Blanqui |         55        0.51       57.36
                 23-Bruno Bauer |         55        0.51       57.87
            24-Bruno Hildebrand |         55        0.51       58.38
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.88
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.39
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.90
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.41
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.91
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.42
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.93
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.44
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.94
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.45
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.96
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.47
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.97
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.48
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.99
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.50
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       67.01
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.51
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       68.02
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.53
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       69.04
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.54
               45-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.05
         46-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.56
              47-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.07
               48-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       71.57
                   49-Epictetus |         55        0.51       72.08
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.59
                   50-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.10
                     51-Faraday |         55        0.51       73.60
          52-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       74.11
                      53-Fichte |         55        0.51       74.62
               54-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       75.13
              55-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       75.63
          56-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       76.14
                       57-Frege |         55        0.51       76.65
            58-Friedrich Krause |         55        0.51       77.16
              59-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       77.66
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.17
          60-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       78.68
          61-Friedrich Schlegel |         55        0.51       79.19
              62-Fritz Schultze |         55        0.51       79.70
                   63-Froissart |         55        0.51       80.20
                      64-Goethe |         55        0.51       80.71
    65-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       81.22
              66-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       81.73
              67-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       82.23
                      68-Hamann |         55        0.51       82.74
     69-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       83.25
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.76
                   70-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       84.26
              71-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       84.77
                72-Henry George |         55        0.51       85.28
                     73-Herbart |         55        0.51       85.79
             74-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       86.29
                      75-Herder |         55        0.51       86.80
               76-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       87.31
               77-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       87.82
                   78-Herodotus |         55        0.51       88.32
                 79-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       88.83
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.34
             80-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       89.85
                      81-Hobbes |         55        0.51       90.36
                       82-Homer |         55        0.51       90.86
                        83-Hume |         55        0.51       91.37
               84-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       91.88
                85-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       92.39
     86-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       92.89
               87-James Madison |         55        0.51       93.40
                 88-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       93.91
                 89-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       94.42
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.92
              90-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       95.43
                 91-John Calvin |         55        0.51       95.94
                   92-John Knox |         55        0.51       96.45
                  93-John Locke |         55        0.51       96.95
                 94-John Milton |         55        0.51       97.46
                 95-John Ruskin |         55        0.51       97.97
            96-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51       98.48
                97-John Woolman |         55        0.51       98.98
              98-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51       99.49
               99-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,835      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.04 4:41:32

. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

.         
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917, French citations"
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, French citations"     
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, French citations
r; t=0.00 4:41:32

. synth cite_French ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_French(1914(1)1916) cite_French(1908(1)1910) cite_French(1902(1)1904) cite_French(1896(1)1898) cite_French(1890(1)1892) cite_French(1884(1)1886) cite_French(1878
> (1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Arnold Ruge, Auberon Herbert, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant, Benjamin Franklin, Bentham,
                              Blanqui, Bruno Bauer, Bruno Hildebrand, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz, Copernicus,
                              Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund Spenser,
                              Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday, Ferdinand Lassalle, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Franz
                              Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Krause, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Friedrich Schlegel, Fritz Schultze, Froissart, Goethe,
                              Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart,
                              Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze, Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton,
                              James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin,
                              John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift, Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Kuno Fischer, Laspeyres, Leibniz, Lord Acton,
                              Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano, Machiavelli, Mainländer, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther,
                              Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Mendelssohn, Nassau Senior, Natorp, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver
                              Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Liebmann, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Pierre
                              Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan, Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns,
                              Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher, Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb,
                              Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Lipps, Thomas Abbt, Thomas Browne, Thomas Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas
                              More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter Raleigh, Wentscher, Wilhelm Roscher, Wilhelm
                              von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William Wordsworth,
                              Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_French
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish Socialist Political
                              cite_French(1914(1)1916) cite_French(1908(1)1910) cite_French(1902(1)1904) cite_French(1896(1)1898) cite_French(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_French(1884(1)1886) cite_French(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0043399 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
               Arnold Ruge |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Bruno Bauer |           0
          Bruno Hildebrand |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |        .069
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
          Friedrich Krause |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
        Friedrich Schlegel |           0
            Fritz Schultze |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |        .073
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |        .371
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
              Kuno Fischer |           0
                 Laspeyres |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                Mainländer |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |        .002
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |        .001
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
         Moses Mendelssohn |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Natorp |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
             Otto Liebmann |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |        .014
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |        .034
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .408
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |        .013
             Theodor Lipps |           0
               Thomas Abbt |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |        .014
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
                 Wentscher |           0
           Wilhelm Roscher |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9606571 
                 wrote_English |         0       .444 
                  wrote_German |         1       .477 
                  wrote_French |         0       .063 
                   wrote_Greek |         0       .002 
                   wrote_Latin |         0       .013 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
                     Socialist |         1       .481 
                     Political |         1       .528 
      cite_French(1914(1)1916) |  .0155825   .0149988 
      cite_French(1908(1)1910) |  .0181961   .0183913 
      cite_French(1902(1)1904) |  .0184435   .0191768 
      cite_French(1896(1)1898) |  .0186848   .0180215 
      cite_French(1890(1)1892) |  .0117882   .0121295 
      cite_French(1884(1)1886) |  .0130844   .0116478 
      cite_French(1878(1)1880) |  .0031153   .0078965 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=144.01 4:43:56

.                 
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.31 4:43:57

.         
. synth_runner cite_French ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_French(1914(1)1916) cite_French(1908(1)1910) cite_French(1902(1)1904) cite_French(1896(1)1898) cite_French(1890(1)1892) cite_French(1884(1)1886) cite_French(1878
> (1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>         parallel 
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : vsvde7h821
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, French citations
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |   .004721   .1794872   .3384615 
          c2 |  .0131251   .0666667   .0461538 
          c3 |   .007284   .1128205   .1487179 
          c4 |  .0009207   .4102564   .8358974 
          c5 |  .0046939    .225641         .4 
          c6 | -.0060983   .1589744   .3076923 
          c7 | -.0065011   .2102564   .3230769 
          c8 | -.0013581   .4307692   .8512821 
          c9 | -.0031057   .3076923   .6564103 
         c10 |  .0039602   .3128205   .4666667 
         c11 |   .000263   .6512821   .9435897 
         c12 |  .0043249   .2769231   .4871795 
         c13 |  .0032156   .2871795   .5384615 
         c14 |  .0033958   .2820513   .5948718 
         c15 |  .0041547   .2871795   .5794872 
         c16 |  .0059313   .2307692   .3846154 
(55 missing values generated)
r; t=6432.70 6:31:09

.                 
.         save_synth_runner_output
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .27692308
e(pval_joint_post_std): .60512821

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .4741049

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .6468184

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3850099

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .7384616
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=23.47 6:31:33

.         
.         * Cleanup
.         drop lead cite_French_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

.         parallel clean  
r; t=0.04 6:31:33

. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Robustness: using citations in Spanish
. * We don't have years of translation to Spanish for use as an indicator, and YearofTranslationtoEnglish is not included as an indicator.
. * Obviously, we change our outcome and indicators from cite_English to cite_Spanish.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************  
.         
. clear
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

. snapshot restore $all_authors_all_years_excl_Hegel
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

. drop if Year < 1878
(6,384 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

. drop if Year > 1932
(15,504 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

. drop if Name == "Marx"
(55 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

. drop if missing(cite_Spanish)
(1,320 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     11,055    .0283842    .0661746          0   .6483135

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     11,110    .0057737    .0195251          0   .5368073

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |     10,340    .0200719    .0545068          0    .892503

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     11,165    .0067497    .0322158          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
r; t=0.01 6:31:33

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.49        0.49
                10-Aristophanes |         55        0.49        0.99
                 100-John Locke |         55        0.49        1.48
                101-John Milton |         55        0.49        1.97
                102-John Ruskin |         55        0.49        2.46
           103-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.49        2.96
               104-John Woolman |         55        0.49        3.45
             105-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.49        3.94
              106-Joseph Lister |         55        0.49        4.43
                      107-Kafka |         55        0.49        4.93
                 108-Karl Knies |         55        0.49        5.42
                  109-Karl Marx |         55        0.49        5.91
                   11-Aristotle |         55        0.49        6.40
                     110-Kelvin |         55        0.49        6.90
                     111-Kempis |         55        0.49        7.39
                  112-Kropotkin |         55        0.49        7.88
               113-Kuno Fischer |         55        0.49        8.37
                      114-Külpe |         55        0.49        8.87
                  115-Laspeyres |         55        0.49        9.36
                    116-Leibniz |         55        0.49        9.85
                 117-Lord Acton |         55        0.49       10.34
                 118-Lord Byron |         55        0.49       10.84
             119-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.49       11.33
                 12-Arnold Ruge |         55        0.49       11.82
           120-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.49       12.32
              121-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.49       12.81
                122-Machiavelli |         55        0.49       13.30
                 123-Mainländer |         55        0.49       13.79
                     124-Malory |         55        0.49       14.29
                    125-Malthus |         55        0.49       14.78
            126-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.49       15.27
                    127-Marlowe |         55        0.49       15.76
              128-Martin Luther |         55        0.49       16.26
                129-Max Stirner |         55        0.49       16.75
                13-August Bebel |         55        0.49       17.24
                    130-Mazzini |         55        0.49       17.73
                    131-Molière |         55        0.49       18.23
                  132-Montaigne |         55        0.49       18.72
                133-Montesquieu |         55        0.49       19.21
                 134-Moses Hess |         55        0.49       19.70
          135-Moses Mendelssohn |         55        0.49       20.20
              136-Nassau Senior |         55        0.49       20.69
                     137-Natorp |         55        0.49       21.18
                     138-Newton |         55        0.49       21.67
                  139-Nietzsche |         55        0.49       22.17
               14-Auguste Comte |         55        0.49       22.66
           140-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.49       23.15
      141-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.49       23.65
                142-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.49       24.14
              143-Otto Liebmann |         55        0.49       24.63
                    144-Pasteur |         55        0.49       25.12
 145-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.49       25.62
       146-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.49       26.11
                   147-Pericles |         55        0.49       26.60
           148-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.49       27.09
                      149-Plato |         55        0.49       27.59
                   15-Augustine |         55        0.49       28.08
          150-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.49       28.57
                   151-Plutarch |         55        0.49       29.06
                   152-Proudhon |         55        0.49       29.56
        153-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.49       30.05
                      154-Ranke |         55        0.49       30.54
                      155-Renan |         55        0.49       31.03
             156-Richard Cobden |         55        0.49       31.53
                      157-Rilke |         55        0.49       32.02
            158-Robert Browning |         55        0.49       32.51
               159-Robert Burns |         55        0.49       33.00
                     16-Bakunin |         55        0.49       33.50
                160-Robert Owen |         55        0.49       33.99
                  161-Rodbertus |         55        0.49       34.48
                   162-Rousseau |         55        0.49       34.98
                163-Rudolf Haym |         55        0.49       35.47
             164-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.49       35.96
                    165-Scheler |         55        0.49       36.45
             166-Schleiermacher |         55        0.49       36.95
                  167-Schmoller |         55        0.49       37.44
               168-Schopenhauer |         55        0.49       37.93
                     169-Simmel |         55        0.49       38.42
      17-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.49       38.92
                   170-Sismondi |         55        0.49       39.41
                    171-Sombart |         55        0.49       39.90
                  172-Sophocles |         55        0.49       40.39
                    173-Spinoza |         55        0.49       40.89
                    174-Tacitus |         55        0.49       41.38
            175-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.49       41.87
              176-Thomas Browne |         55        0.49       42.36
             177-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.49       42.86
           178-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.49       43.35
                179-Thomas Mann |         55        0.49       43.84
                     18-Bastiat |         55        0.49       44.33
                180-Thomas More |         55        0.49       44.83
                    181-Thoreau |         55        0.49       45.32
                 182-Thucydides |         55        0.49       45.81
                     183-Thünen |         55        0.49       46.31
                184-Tocqueville |         55        0.49       46.80
                185-Victor Hugo |         55        0.49       47.29
                     186-Virgil |         55        0.49       47.78
                   187-Voltaire |         55        0.49       48.28
               188-Walt Whitman |         55        0.49       48.77
             189-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.49       49.26
           19-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.49       49.75
                  190-Wentscher |         55        0.49       50.25
            191-Wilhelm Roscher |         55        0.49       50.74
       192-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.49       51.23
             193-William Caxton |         55        0.49       51.72
             194-William Godwin |         55        0.49       52.22
      195-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.49       52.71
           196-William Harrison |         55        0.49       53.20
             197-William Harvey |         55        0.49       53.69
               198-William Penn |         55        0.49       54.19
         199-William Wordsworth |         55        0.49       54.68
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.49       55.17
           20-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.49       55.67
                 200-Windelband |         55        0.49       56.16
             201-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.49       56.65
                      202-Wundt |         55        0.49       57.14
                  203-de Gouges |         55        0.49       57.64
                     21-Bentham |         55        0.49       58.13
             22-Bernard Bolzano |         55        0.49       58.62
                     23-Blanqui |         55        0.49       59.11
                 24-Bruno Bauer |         55        0.49       59.61
            25-Bruno Hildebrand |         55        0.49       60.10
                 26-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.49       60.59
                     27-Cellini |         55        0.49       61.08
                   28-Cervantes |         55        0.49       61.58
              29-Charles Darwin |         55        0.49       62.07
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.49       62.56
             30-Charles Fourier |         55        0.49       63.05
                     31-Chaucer |         55        0.49       63.55
                      32-Cicero |         55        0.49       64.04
                  33-Clausewitz |         55        0.49       64.53
                  34-Copernicus |         55        0.49       65.02
             35-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.49       65.52
               36-David Ricardo |         55        0.49       66.01
                   37-Descartes |         55        0.49       66.50
                     38-Dilthey |         55        0.49       67.00
                 39-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.49       67.49
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.49       67.98
                      40-Dryden |         55        0.49       68.47
                    41-Durkheim |         55        0.49       68.97
              42-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.49       69.46
                  43-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.49       69.95
                44-Edmund Burke |         55        0.49       70.44
              45-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.49       70.94
            46-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.49       71.43
               47-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.49       71.92
         48-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.49       72.41
              49-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.49       72.91
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.49       73.40
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.49       73.89
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.49       74.38
               52-Eugen Dühring |         55        0.49       74.88
                   53-Euripides |         55        0.49       75.37
                     54-Faraday |         55        0.49       75.86
          55-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.49       76.35
           56-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.49       76.85
                      57-Fichte |         55        0.49       77.34
               58-Francis Bacon |         55        0.49       77.83
              59-Francis Pretty |         55        0.49       78.33
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.49       78.82
              60-Franz Brentano |         55        0.49       79.31
          61-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.49       79.80
                       62-Frege |         55        0.49       80.30
  63-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.49       80.79
   64-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.49       81.28
            65-Friedrich Krause |         55        0.49       81.77
              66-Friedrich List |         55        0.49       82.27
          67-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.49       82.76
          68-Friedrich Schlegel |         55        0.49       83.25
                   69-Froissart |         55        0.49       83.74
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.49       84.24
                      70-Goethe |         55        0.49       84.73
    71-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.49       85.22
              72-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.49       85.71
              73-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.49       86.21
                      74-Hamann |         55        0.49       86.70
     75-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.49       87.19
                   76-Helmholtz |         55        0.49       87.68
              77-Henry Fielding |         55        0.49       88.18
                78-Henry George |         55        0.49       88.67
                     79-Herbart |         55        0.49       89.16
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.49       89.66
             80-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.49       90.15
                      81-Herder |         55        0.49       90.64
               82-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.49       91.13
               83-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.49       91.63
                   84-Herodotus |         55        0.49       92.12
                 85-Hippocrates |         55        0.49       92.61
             86-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.49       93.10
                      87-Hobbes |         55        0.49       93.60
                       88-Homer |         55        0.49       94.09
                        89-Hume |         55        0.49       94.58
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.49       95.07
                   90-Hölderlin |         55        0.49       95.57
               91-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.49       96.06
                92-Izaak Walton |         55        0.49       96.55
     93-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.49       97.04
               94-James Madison |         55        0.49       97.54
                 95-Jean Racine |         55        0.49       98.03
                 96-John Bunyan |         55        0.49       98.52
              97-John C Calhoun |         55        0.49       99.01
                 98-John Calvin |         55        0.49       99.51
                   99-John Knox |         55        0.49      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     11,165      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.05 6:31:33

. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

.         
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917, Spanish citations"
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, Spanish citations"    
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, Spanish citations
r; t=0.00 6:31:33

. synth cite_Spanish ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_Spanish(1914(1)1916) cite_Spanish(1908(1)1910) cite_Spanish(1902(1)1904) cite_Spanish(1896(1)1898) cite_Spanish(1890(1)1892) cite_Spanish(1884(1)1886) cite_Spani
> sh(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Aristophanes,
                              Aristotle, Arnold Ruge, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant, Benjamin Franklin,
                              Bentham, Bernard Bolzano, Blanqui, Bruno Bauer, Bruno Hildebrand, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer,
                              Cicero, Clausewitz, Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus,
                              Edmund Burke, Edmund Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Eugen Dühring,
                              Euripides, Faraday, Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege,
                              Friedrich Carl von Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich Krause, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Friedrich Schlegel, Froissart,
                              Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George,
                              Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze, Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel
                              Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John
                              Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift, Joseph Lister, Kafka, Karl Knies, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Kuno Fischer,
                              Külpe, Laspeyres, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano, Machiavelli, Mainländer, Malory, Malthus,
                              Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Moses Mendelssohn, Nassau Senior,
                              Natorp, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Liebmann, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy Bysshe
                              Shelley, Pericles, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan, Richard Cobden, Rilke,
                              Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, Rudolf Haym, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher, Schmoller, Schopenhauer,
                              Simmel, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas
                              More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter Raleigh, Wentscher, Wilhelm Roscher, Wilhelm
                              von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William Wordsworth,
                              Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_Spanish
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish Socialist Political
                              cite_Spanish(1914(1)1916) cite_Spanish(1908(1)1910) cite_Spanish(1902(1)1904) cite_Spanish(1896(1)1898) cite_Spanish(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_Spanish(1884(1)1886) cite_Spanish(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0009068 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
               Arnold Ruge |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
           Bernard Bolzano |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Bruno Bauer |           0
          Bruno Hildebrand |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |        .052
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
             Eugen Dühring |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
          Friedrich Krause |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
        Friedrich Schlegel |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |        .005
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |        .038
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                Karl Knies |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |        .571
              Kuno Fischer |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                 Laspeyres |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                Mainländer |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |         .07
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |        .243
         Moses Mendelssohn |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Natorp |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |        .015
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
             Otto Liebmann |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               Rudolf Haym |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |        .002
                    Simmel |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |        .002
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
                 Wentscher |           0
           Wilhelm Roscher |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9814025 
                 wrote_English |         0       .609 
                  wrote_German |         1       .335 
                  wrote_French |         0       .052 
                   wrote_Greek |         0       .002 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
                     Socialist |         1       .814 
                     Political |         1       .924 
     cite_Spanish(1914(1)1916) |  .0012381   .0013198 
     cite_Spanish(1908(1)1910) |   .003205   .0031382 
     cite_Spanish(1902(1)1904) |  .0014141   .0011493 
     cite_Spanish(1896(1)1898) |  .0004444    .000598 
     cite_Spanish(1890(1)1892) |  .0004676   .0004113 
     cite_Spanish(1884(1)1886) |  .0000444   .0003282 
     cite_Spanish(1878(1)1880) |  .0002339   .0002448 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=99.89 6:33:13

.                 
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.32 6:33:13

.         
. synth_runner cite_Spanish ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_Spanish(1914(1)1916) cite_Spanish(1908(1)1910) cite_Spanish(1902(1)1904) cite_Spanish(1896(1)1898) cite_Spanish(1890(1)1892) cite_Spanish(1884(1)1886) cite_Spani
> sh(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>         parallel 
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : j8qfbqvz23
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, Spanish citations
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 182 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0017194   .2472527   .2582418 
          c2 | -.0004579   .3791209   .5164835 
          c3 |  .0001462   .5769231   .7857143 
          c4 | -.0009312   .2802198   .3131868 
          c5 | -.0010975   .2747253   .2802198 
          c6 | -.0064446   .1373626   .0494505 
          c7 |   .000329   .4010989   .5934066 
          c8 | -.0004953   .4010989   .5659341 
          c9 | -.0014301   .2637363   .3131868 
         c10 | -.0011202   .3241758   .3461538 
         c11 | -.0013168   .3406593   .3406593 
         c12 |  .0001991   .5714286   .8791209 
         c13 |  .0008924   .3131868   .3296703 
         c14 | -.0004873   .4450549   .6538462 
         c15 |  .0012069   .2747253   .3956044 
         c16 | -.0009537   .4010989   .5549451 
(1,100 missing values generated)
r; t=26107.45 13:48:21

.                 
.         save_synth_runner_output
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .35714286
e(pval_joint_post_std): .41208791

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .7142924

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .6536141

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .4936602

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .6923077
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=43.78 13:49:04

.         
.         * Cleanup
.         drop lead cite_Spanish_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

.         parallel clean          
r; t=0.04 13:49:04

.         
. *******************************************************************************
. * Placebo test:
. * What was happening to Marx's chief counterfactuals, the other socialists?
. * Did they have treatment effects?
. * Let's run synths on them, just to see what they looked like, visually, and make sure nothing funny is going on with them.
. *
. * In all these, we exclude both "Karl Marx" and "Marx" from the donor pool
. *******************************************************************************
. 
. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. clear
r; t=0.01 13:49:04

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.01 13:49:04

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.05 13:49:04

. 
. * Drop "Karl Marx" too, because we don't want his treatment effect (assuming one exists) to bias the estimates of his counterfactuals.
. drop if Name == "Karl Marx"
(55 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. tabulate Name if Socialist == 1

              Author's name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
----------------------------+-----------------------------------
               August Bebel |         55        5.26        5.26
                    Bakunin |         55        5.26       10.53
                    Blanqui |         55        5.26       15.79
            Charles Fourier |         55        5.26       21.05
           Eduard Bernstein |         55        5.26       26.32
             Edward Bellamy |         55        5.26       31.58
         Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        5.26       36.84
               Henry George |         55        5.26       42.11
                John Ruskin |         55        5.26       47.37
                  Kropotkin |         55        5.26       52.63
              Lujo Brentano |         55        5.26       57.89
                 Moses Hess |         55        5.26       63.16
                Oscar Wilde |         55        5.26       68.42
                   Proudhon |         55        5.26       73.68
                Robert Owen |         55        5.26       78.95
                  Rodbertus |         55        5.26       84.21
                   Sismondi |         55        5.26       89.47
                    Sombart |         55        5.26       94.74
             Thomas Carlyle |         55        5.26      100.00
----------------------------+-----------------------------------
                      Total |      1,045      100.00
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. 
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917, socialist donors only"
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. capture mkdir "synth for socialist counterparts"
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only\synth for socialist counterparts"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only\synth for socialist counterparts
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. 
. * We will be using the parallel module to run a program that will run several synths in parallel. However, 
. * whenever we try to use the current dataset in memory for multiple processes, parallel fails. Instead,
. * we have to use the "nodata" argument in parallel, and then let each individual process load its own data. 
. * Therefore, we save the data to disk, so that each process can load the data independently. At the end,
. * we will erase this temporary data.
. save "socialist_synth_tempdata.dta", replace
(file socialist_synth_tempdata.dta not found)
file socialist_synth_tempdata.dta saved
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. 
. * This program is simply a synth regression for any given, individual, arbitrary socialist donor unit.
. capture program drop SocialistCounterfactualSynth 
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. program SocialistCounterfactualSynth
  1. 
.         args Name 
  2.         
.         capture mkdir "`Name'"
  3.         cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only\synth for socialist counterparts\\`Name'" 
  4.         quietly sum Name_no if Name == "`Name'"
  5.         local trunit = r(mean)
  6.         
.         synth cite_English ///
>                 YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political /
> //
>                 cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) ci
> te_English(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>                 trunit(`trunit') trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>                 fig keep("synth_results") replace
  7.                 
.                 save_synth_output
  8. 
. end
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. 
. * We create a program RunSocialistSynthsInParallel in which a series of conditional "if $pll_instance = # {}" is used to run multiple code blocks in parallel.
. * Then this program is executed by parallel, programs(...): RunSocialistSynthsInParallel. See below for commentary on the parameters of parallel, programs(...): RunSocialistS
> ynthsInParallel.
. * For an example of this, see "help parallel", s.v. "Example 6: Using -pll_instance- and -PLL_CHILDREN- macros".
. capture program drop RunSocialistSynthsInParallel
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. program define RunSocialistSynthsInParallel
  1. 
.         use "socialist_synth_tempdata.dta"
  2.         
.         if ($pll_instance == 1) {
  3.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "August Bebel"
  4.         }
  5.         else if ($pll_instance == 2) {
  6.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Bakunin"
  7.         }
  8.         else if ($pll_instance == 3) {
  9.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Blanqui"
 10.         }
 11.         else if ($pll_instance == 4) {
 12.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Charles Fourier"
 13.         }
 14.         else if ($pll_instance == 5) {
 15.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Eduard Bernstein"
 16.         }
 17.         else if ($pll_instance == 6) {
 18.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Edward Bellamy"
 19.         }
 20.         else if ($pll_instance == 7) {
 21.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Ferdinand Lassalle"
 22.         }
 23.         else if ($pll_instance == 8) {
 24.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Henry George"
 25.         }
 26.         else if ($pll_instance == 9) {
 27.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "John Ruskin"
 28.         }
 29.         else if ($pll_instance == 10) {
 30.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Kropotkin"
 31.         }
 32.         else if ($pll_instance == 11) {
 33.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Lujo Brentano"
 34.         }
 35.         else if ($pll_instance == 12) {
 36.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Moses Hess"
 37.         }
 38.         else if ($pll_instance == 13) {
 39.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Oscar Wilde"
 40.         }
 41.         else if ($pll_instance == 14) {
 42.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Proudhon"
 43.         }
 44.         else if ($pll_instance == 15) { 
 45.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Robert Owen"
 46.         }
 47.         else if ($pll_instance == 16) {
 48.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Rodbertus"
 49.         }
 50.         else if ($pll_instance == 17) {
 51.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Sismondi"
 52.         }
 53.         else if ($pll_instance == 18) {
 54.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Sombart"
 55.         }
 56.         else if ($pll_instance == 19) {
 57.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Thomas Carlyle"
 58.         }
 59. 
. end
r; t=0.00 13:49:04

. 
. * Run the program we just created - RunSocialistSynthsInParallel - in parallel.
. * I found that when each thread of RunSocialistSynthsInParallel tried to access the data in memory, parallel would fail with errors.
. * So instead, we use the "nodata" parameter and then let each individual thread load its own data - using the temporary data we already saved to disk.
. * Finally, programs(...) is passed the name of every program which will be required by any of the threads of RunSocialistSynthsInParallel.
. parallel, nodata programs(RunSocialistSynthsInParallel SocialistCounterfactualSynth save_synth_output NormalizeVariables NumberUnits): RunSocialistSynthsInParallel
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Exporting the following program(s): RunSocialistSynthsInParallel SocialistCounterfactualSynth save_synth_output NormalizeVariables NumberUnits

RunSocialistSynthsInParallel:
  1.         use "socialist_synth_tempdata.dta"
  2.         if ($pll_instance == 1) {
  3.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "August Bebel"
  4.         }
  5.         else if ($pll_instance == 2) {
  6.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Bakunin"
  7.         }
  8.         else if ($pll_instance == 3) {
  9.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Blanqui"
 10.         }
 11.         else if ($pll_instance == 4) {
 12.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Charles Fourier"
 13.         }
 14.         else if ($pll_instance == 5) {
 15.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Eduard Bernstein"
 16.         }
 17.         else if ($pll_instance == 6) {
 18.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Edward Bellamy"
 19.         }
 20.         else if ($pll_instance == 7) {
 21.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Ferdinand Lassalle"
 22.         }
 23.         else if ($pll_instance == 8) {
 24.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Henry George"
 25.         }
 26.         else if ($pll_instance == 9) {
 27.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "John Ruskin"
 28.         }
 29.         else if ($pll_instance == 10) {
 30.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Kropotkin"
 31.         }
 32.         else if ($pll_instance == 11) {
 33.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Lujo Brentano"
 34.         }
 35.         else if ($pll_instance == 12) {
 36.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Moses Hess"
 37.         }
 38.         else if ($pll_instance == 13) {
 39.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Oscar Wilde"
 40.         }
 41.         else if ($pll_instance == 14) {
 42.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Proudhon"
 43.         }
 44.         else if ($pll_instance == 15) {
 45.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Robert Owen"
 46.         }
 47.         else if ($pll_instance == 16) {
 48.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Rodbertus"
 49.         }
 50.         else if ($pll_instance == 17) {
 51.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Sismondi"
 52.         }
 53.         else if ($pll_instance == 18) {
 54.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Sombart"
 55.         }
 56.         else if ($pll_instance == 19) {
 57.                 SocialistCounterfactualSynth "Thomas Carlyle"
 58.         }

SocialistCounterfactualSynth:
  1.         args Name
  2.         capture mkdir "`Name'"
  3.         cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only\synth for socialist counterparts\\`Name'"
  4.         quietly sum Name_no if Name == "`Name'"
  5.         local trunit = r(mean)
  6.         synth cite_English YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Sociali
> st Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_
> English(1878(1)1880), $convergence trunit(`trunit') trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) fig keep("synth_results") replace
  7.                 save_synth_output

save_synth_output:
  1.         graph save "synth_graph", replace
  2.         putexcel set "synth_results.xlsx", replace sheet(RMSPE)
  3.         putexcel (A1) = "e(RMSPE): A one by one matrix that contains the Root Mean Squared Prediction Error (RMSPE))."
  4.         putexcel (A3) = matrix(e(RMSPE)), names overwritefmt
  5.         putexcel set "synth_results.xlsx", modify sheet(V-Matrix)
  6.         putexcel (A1) = "e(V_matrix): A diagonal matrix that contains the normalized variable weights in the diagonal."
  7.         putexcel (A3) = matrix(e(V_matrix)), names overwritefmt
  8.         putexcel set "synth_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Indicator Balance)
  9.         putexcel (A1) = "e(X_balance): A matrix that juxtaposes the predictor values for the unit affected by the intervention and the synthetic control unit. The matrix h
> as two columns (treated and synthetic) and as many rows as predictors."
 10.         putexcel (A3) = matrix(e(X_balance)), names overwritefmt
 11.         putexcel set "synth_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Donor Weights)
 12.         putexcel (A1) = "e(W_weights): A matrix that contains the unit numbers and unit weights, ie. the relative contribution of each control unit to the synthetic contro
> l unit.  The matrix has two column and as many rows as control units."
 13.         putexcel (A3) = matrix(e(W_weights)), names overwritefmt
 14.         putexcel set "synth_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Outcomes)
 15.         putexcel (A1) = "e(Y_treated): A matrix that contains the values of the response variable for the treated unit for each time period.  The matrix has one column and
>  as many rows as time periods specified in resultsperiod()."
 16.         putexcel (A2) = "e(Y_synthetic): A matrix that contains the values of the response variable for the synthetic control unit for each time period.  The matrix has on
> e column and as many rows as time periods specified in resultsperiod()."
 17.         putexcel (A4) = matrix(e(Y_treated)), names overwritefmt
 18.         putexcel (B4) = "Y-Treated"
 19.         putexcel (D4) = matrix(e(Y_synthetic)), names overwritefmt
 20.         putexcel (E4) = "Y-Synthetic"

NormalizeVariables:
  1.         foreach variable in cite_English cite_German cite_French cite_Spanish cite_news {
  2.                 summarize `variable'
  3.                 assert r(min) == 0
  4.         }
  5.         foreach variable in cite_English cite_German cite_French cite_Spanish cite_news YearofPublication YearofTranslationtoEnglish {
  6.                 capture quietly summarize `variable'
  7.                 capture replace `variable' = (`variable' - r(min)) / (r(max)-r(min))
  8.         }

NumberUnits:
  1.         encode Name, generate(Name_no)
  2.         gen hyphen = "-"
  3.         egen Name_no_Name = concat(Name_no hyphen Name)
  4.         drop hyphen
  5.         tabulate Name_no_Name
  6.         tsset Name_no Year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : ekdvu2n925
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only\synth for socialist counterparts
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=285.01 13:53:49

. parallel clean
r; t=0.04 13:53:50

. erase "$path\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only\synth for socialist counterparts\socialist_synth_tempdata.dta"       
r; t=0.00 13:53:50

. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Robustness: include only socialists in our sample, for synth_runner (for p-values).
. * Now we drop the Socialist and Political indicator variables because all our donors are socialists, and all socialists are political
. * We also have to drop wrote_Greek, wrote_Latin, wrote_Spanish, and wrote_Italian because none of the socialists wrote in either of these languages.
. * And we drop wrote_French because of the dummy trap; every socialist who didn't write in English or German must have written in French, so we don't need wrote_French
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************  
. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. clear
r; t=0.00 13:53:50

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.00 13:53:50

. * Keep only socialists
. keep if Socialist == 1
(9,680 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 13:53:50

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |      1,100    .0090306    .0113633          0    .090366

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |      1,100    .0023363    .0041565          0    .033219

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |        935    .0065288    .0137895          0   .1255052

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |      1,100    .0011062    .0029531          0   .0389776

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |        660    .0199252    .0597283          0          1
r; t=0.00 13:53:50

. NumberUnits

        Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
---------------------+-----------------------------------
      1-August Bebel |         55        5.00        5.00
        10-Karl Marx |         55        5.00       10.00
        11-Kropotkin |         55        5.00       15.00
    12-Lujo Brentano |         55        5.00       20.00
       13-Moses Hess |         55        5.00       25.00
      14-Oscar Wilde |         55        5.00       30.00
         15-Proudhon |         55        5.00       35.00
      16-Robert Owen |         55        5.00       40.00
        17-Rodbertus |         55        5.00       45.00
         18-Sismondi |         55        5.00       50.00
          19-Sombart |         55        5.00       55.00
           2-Bakunin |         55        5.00       60.00
   20-Thomas Carlyle |         55        5.00       65.00
           3-Blanqui |         55        5.00       70.00
   4-Charles Fourier |         55        5.00       75.00
  5-Eduard Bernstein |         55        5.00       80.00
    6-Edward Bellamy |         55        5.00       85.00
7-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        5.00       90.00
      8-Henry George |         55        5.00       95.00
       9-John Ruskin |         55        5.00      100.00
---------------------+-----------------------------------
               Total |      1,100      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.00 13:53:50

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 13:53:50

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 13:53:50

. 
. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only
r; t=0.00 13:53:50

. 
. synth cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German YearofTranslationtoEnglish ///
>         cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_Engli
> sh(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: August Bebel, Bakunin, Blanqui, Charles Fourier, Eduard Bernstein, Edward Bellamy, Ferdinand Lassalle, Henry George, John Ruskin, Kropotkin, Lujo
                              Brentano, Moses Hess, Oscar Wilde, Proudhon, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Sismondi, Sombart, Thomas Carlyle
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German YearofTranslationtoEnglish cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910)
                              cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0305599 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

--------------------------------
             Co_No | Unit_Weight
-------------------+------------
      August Bebel |        .147
           Bakunin |           0
           Blanqui |           0
   Charles Fourier |        .025
  Eduard Bernstein |           0
    Edward Bellamy |           0
Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
      Henry George |        .127
       John Ruskin |        .023
         Kropotkin |        .113
     Lujo Brentano |           0
        Moses Hess |        .075
       Oscar Wilde |        .141
          Proudhon |        .177
       Robert Owen |           0
         Rodbertus |        .172
          Sismondi |           0
           Sombart |           0
    Thomas Carlyle |           0
--------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .6082472   .6082574 
                 wrote_English |         0       .404 
                  wrote_German |         1       .394 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .4683545    .468519 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .1393231   .1414106 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .1879782   .1397272 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .1042093   .1041588 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .1138108   .1149774 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .1327284    .132924 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .1135446   .1121301 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0497097   .0557888 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=8.64 13:53:58

.                 
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.27 13:53:58

.         
. synth_runner cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German YearofTranslationtoEnglish ///
>         cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_Engli
> sh(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace /// 
>         parallel
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
Small workload/num groups. Temporarily setting number of child processes to 19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 19
pll_id         : auu7znoq27
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, socialist donors only
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 18 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0095729   .7777778   .8333333 
          c2 |  .0952916   .1111111   .0555556 
          c3 |  .1862681   .0555556          0 
          c4 |  .2213583          0          0 
          c5 |  .2626705          0          0 
          c6 |  .1457392   .0555556          0 
          c7 |  .1104289   .0555556          0 
          c8 |  .1294985   .0555556          0 
          c9 |  .0996409   .2777778   .0555556 
         c10 |  .1185447          0          0 
         c11 |  .2055431   .0555556          0 
         c12 |  .1223073   .1111111          0 
         c13 |  .1909889   .0555556          0 
         c14 |  .1937159          0   .0555556 
         c15 |  .2304103   .0555556          0 
         c16 |  .3070737          0          0 
(55 missing values generated)
r; t=35.26 13:54:34

.                 
.         save_synth_runner_output
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .05555556
e(pval_joint_post_std): 0

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .09924058

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .08404496

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .07407407

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .05925926
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=8.80 13:54:42

.         
.         * Cleanup
.         drop lead cite_English_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
r; t=0.00 13:54:42

.         parallel clean  
r; t=0.03 13:54:43

.         
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Robustness: include only NON-socialists in our sample (besides Karl Marx himself, whom we obviously keep)
. * Now we drop the Socialist indicator but keep the Political indicator, because all our donors are non-socialists, but some are Political while some are not
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************  
. clear
r; t=0.00 13:54:43

. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.00 13:54:43

. * Keep only "Karl Marx" and non-socialists
. keep if Name == "Karl Marx" | Socialist == 0
(1,045 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 13:54:43

. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |      9,735    .0489409    .1076776          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |      9,460    .0122712     .039192          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,075    .0256057    .0649099          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |      9,185    .0080725    .0353644          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |        715    .0510621    .0973519          0   .6403461
r; t=0.00 13:54:43

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.56        0.56
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.56        1.13
                    100-Leibniz |         55        0.56        1.69
                 101-Lord Acton |         55        0.56        2.26
                 102-Lord Byron |         55        0.56        2.82
             103-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.56        3.39
           104-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.56        3.95
                105-Machiavelli |         55        0.56        4.52
                     106-Malory |         55        0.56        5.08
                    107-Malthus |         55        0.56        5.65
            108-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.56        6.21
                    109-Marlowe |         55        0.56        6.78
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.56        7.34
              110-Martin Luther |         55        0.56        7.91
                111-Max Stirner |         55        0.56        8.47
                    112-Mazzini |         55        0.56        9.04
                    113-Molière |         55        0.56        9.60
                  114-Montaigne |         55        0.56       10.17
                115-Montesquieu |         55        0.56       10.73
              116-Nassau Senior |         55        0.56       11.30
                     117-Newton |         55        0.56       11.86
                  118-Nietzsche |         55        0.56       12.43
           119-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.56       12.99
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.56       13.56
      120-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.56       14.12
            121-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.56       14.69
                    122-Pasteur |         55        0.56       15.25
 123-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.56       15.82
       124-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.56       16.38
                   125-Pericles |         55        0.56       16.95
             126-Philip Nichols |         55        0.56       17.51
           127-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.56       18.08
                      128-Plato |         55        0.56       18.64
          129-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.56       19.21
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.56       19.77
                   130-Plutarch |         55        0.56       20.34
        131-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.56       20.90
                      132-Ranke |         55        0.56       21.47
                      133-Renan |         55        0.56       22.03
             134-Richard Cobden |         55        0.56       22.60
                      135-Rilke |         55        0.56       23.16
            136-Robert Browning |         55        0.56       23.73
               137-Robert Burns |         55        0.56       24.29
                   138-Rousseau |         55        0.56       24.86
                139-SainteBeuve |         55        0.56       25.42
               14-Auguste Comte |         55        0.56       25.99
             140-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.56       26.55
                    141-Scheler |         55        0.56       27.12
             142-Schleiermacher |         55        0.56       27.68
                  143-Schmoller |         55        0.56       28.25
               144-Schopenhauer |         55        0.56       28.81
                   145-Schäffle |         55        0.56       29.38
                     146-Simmel |         55        0.56       29.94
              147-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.56       30.51
                  148-Sophocles |         55        0.56       31.07
                    149-Spinoza |         55        0.56       31.64
                   15-Augustine |         55        0.56       32.20
                    150-Tacitus |         55        0.56       32.77
            151-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.56       33.33
              152-Thomas Browne |         55        0.56       33.90
           153-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.56       34.46
                154-Thomas Mann |         55        0.56       35.03
                155-Thomas More |         55        0.56       35.59
                    156-Thoreau |         55        0.56       36.16
                 157-Thucydides |         55        0.56       36.72
                     158-Thünen |         55        0.56       37.29
                159-Tocqueville |         55        0.56       37.85
      16-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.56       38.42
                160-Victor Hugo |         55        0.56       38.98
                     161-Virgil |         55        0.56       39.55
                   162-Voltaire |         55        0.56       40.11
               163-Walt Whitman |         55        0.56       40.68
             164-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.56       41.24
       165-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.56       41.81
             166-William Caxton |         55        0.56       42.37
             167-William Godwin |         55        0.56       42.94
      168-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.56       43.50
           169-William Harrison |         55        0.56       44.07
                     17-Bastiat |         55        0.56       44.63
             170-William Harvey |         55        0.56       45.20
               171-William Penn |         55        0.56       45.76
              172-William Roper |         55        0.56       46.33
         173-William Wordsworth |         55        0.56       46.89
                 174-Windelband |         55        0.56       47.46
             175-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.56       48.02
                      176-Wundt |         55        0.56       48.59
                  177-de Gouges |         55        0.56       49.15
           18-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.56       49.72
           19-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.56       50.28
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.56       50.85
                     20-Bentham |         55        0.56       51.41
                      21-Bigges |         55        0.56       51.98
                 22-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.56       52.54
                     23-Cellini |         55        0.56       53.11
                   24-Cervantes |         55        0.56       53.67
              25-Charles Darwin |         55        0.56       54.24
                     26-Chaucer |         55        0.56       54.80
                      27-Cicero |         55        0.56       55.37
                  28-Clausewitz |         55        0.56       55.93
                  29-Copernicus |         55        0.56       56.50
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.56       57.06
             30-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.56       57.63
               31-David Ricardo |         55        0.56       58.19
                   32-Descartes |         55        0.56       58.76
                     33-Dilthey |         55        0.56       59.32
                 34-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.56       59.89
                      35-Dryden |         55        0.56       60.45
                    36-Durkheim |         55        0.56       61.02
              37-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.56       61.58
                  38-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.56       62.15
                39-Edmund Burke |         55        0.56       62.71
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.56       63.28
              40-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.56       63.84
               41-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.56       64.41
         42-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.56       64.97
                43-Edward Haies |         55        0.56       65.54
               44-Edward Jenner |         55        0.56       66.10
                   45-Epictetus |         55        0.56       66.67
                   46-Euripides |         55        0.56       67.23
                     47-Faraday |         55        0.56       67.80
           48-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.56       68.36
                      49-Fichte |         55        0.56       68.93
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.56       69.49
               50-Francis Bacon |         55        0.56       70.06
              51-Francis Pretty |         55        0.56       70.62
              52-Franz Brentano |         55        0.56       71.19
          53-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.56       71.75
                       54-Frege |         55        0.56       72.32
  55-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.56       72.88
   56-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.56       73.45
              57-Friedrich List |         55        0.56       74.01
          58-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.56       74.58
                   59-Froissart |         55        0.56       75.14
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.56       75.71
                      60-Goethe |         55        0.56       76.27
    61-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.56       76.84
              62-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.56       77.40
              63-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.56       77.97
                      64-Hamann |         55        0.56       78.53
     65-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.56       79.10
                   66-Helmholtz |         55        0.56       79.66
              67-Henry Fielding |         55        0.56       80.23
                     68-Herbart |         55        0.56       80.79
             69-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.56       81.36
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.56       81.92
                      70-Herder |         55        0.56       82.49
               71-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.56       83.05
               72-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.56       83.62
                   73-Herodotus |         55        0.56       84.18
                 74-Hippocrates |         55        0.56       84.75
             75-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.56       85.31
                      76-Hobbes |         55        0.56       85.88
                       77-Homer |         55        0.56       86.44
                        78-Hume |         55        0.56       87.01
                   79-Hölderlin |         55        0.56       87.57
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.56       88.14
               80-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.56       88.70
                81-Izaak Walton |         55        0.56       89.27
     82-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.56       89.83
               83-James Madison |         55        0.56       90.40
                 84-Jean Racine |         55        0.56       90.96
                 85-John Bunyan |         55        0.56       91.53
              86-John C Calhoun |         55        0.56       92.09
                 87-John Calvin |         55        0.56       92.66
                   88-John Knox |         55        0.56       93.22
                  89-John Locke |         55        0.56       93.79
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.56       94.35
                 90-John Milton |         55        0.56       94.92
            91-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.56       95.48
                92-John Woolman |         55        0.56       96.05
              93-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.56       96.61
               94-Joseph Lister |         55        0.56       97.18
                       95-Kafka |         55        0.56       97.74
                   96-Karl Marx |         55        0.56       98.31
                      97-Kelvin |         55        0.56       98.87
                      98-Kempis |         55        0.56       99.44
                       99-Külpe |         55        0.56      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |      9,735      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.04 13:54:43

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 13:54:43

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 13:54:43

. 
. cd "$path\results"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 13:54:43

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917, NON-socialist donors only"
r; t=0.00 13:54:43

. cd "Treatment 1917, NON-socialist donors only"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, NON-socialist donors only
r; t=0.00 13:54:43

. 
. synth cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Political ///
>         cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_Engli
> sh(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant, Benjamin Franklin,
                              Bentham, Bigges, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz, Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo,
                              Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund Spenser, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann,
                              Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick
                              Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim
                              Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann
                              Cohen, Hermann Lotze, Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames
                              Stephen, James Madison, Jean Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman,
                              Jonathan Swift, Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Machiavelli,
                              Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Nassau Senior, Newton, Nietzsche,
                              Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols,
                              Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan, Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns,
                              Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher, Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sophocles, Spinoza,
                              Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo,
                              Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison,
                              William Harvey, William Penn, William Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Political
                              cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0025723 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |        .046
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |        .369
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |        .001
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |        .054
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |        .159
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |        .022
               Max Stirner |        .328
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |        .008
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |        .012
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9711684 
                 wrote_English |         0       .046 
                  wrote_German |         1       .886 
                  wrote_French |         0       .012 
                   wrote_Greek |         0       .001 
                   wrote_Latin |         0       .054 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8009428 
                     Political |         1       .374 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0125901   .0133004 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0169868    .015043 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .009417   .0110679 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0102846   .0108153 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0119941   .0116527 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0102606   .0094605 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0044921   .0050974 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=111.52 13:56:34

.                 
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.31 13:56:34

.         
. synth_runner cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Political ///
>         cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_Engli
> sh(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace /// 
>         parallel 
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : nrqcn26929
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, NON-socialist donors only
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 175 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0026159   .3771429   .2571429 
          c2 |  .0075027         .2   .0342857 
          c3 |  .0148556   .1257143   .0114286 
          c4 |  .0190946   .1028571   .0114286 
          c5 |  .0220034   .0857143          0 
          c6 |  .0118251   .1371429   .0171429 
          c7 |  .0075335   .2514286   .0342857 
          c8 |   .010712   .1885714   .0171429 
          c9 |  .0094667   .1885714   .0457143 
         c10 |  .0102162   .1942857   .0571429 
         c11 |  .0152044   .1371429        .04 
         c12 |  .0115822   .1714286   .0514286 
         c13 |  .0103193   .2285714   .0742857 
         c14 |  .0208078   .1314286   .0285714 
         c15 |  .0215853   .1371429   .0228571 
         c16 |  .0268141   .1085714        .04 
(55 missing values generated)
r; t=3927.43 15:02:02

.                 
.         save_synth_runner_output
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .17142857
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04571429

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3076116

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02548264

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2461538

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .05485714
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=22.98 15:02:25

.         
.         * Cleanup
.         drop lead cite_English_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
r; t=0.00 15:02:25

.         parallel clean  
r; t=0.03 15:02:25

.         
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Robustness: divide pre-treatment period in half between "training" and "validation" periods.
. * We use only the first half the pre-treatment period as 
. * indicators, and minimize the RMSPE in the second half of the pre-treatment period. 
. * Intuitively, we are mitigating overfitting by choosing a set of weights such that
. * indicators from one part of the pre-treatment period are able to predict outcomes
. * in another part of the pre-treatment period.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. clear
r; t=0.00 15:02:25

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.00 15:02:25

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.04 15:02:25

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 15:02:25

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 15:02:25

. 
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 15:02:25

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917, training & validation"
r; t=0.00 15:02:25

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, training & validation"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, training & validation
r; t=0.00 15:02:25

. 
. synth cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>                                                                                                                                                                 cite_English(1
> 896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) resultsperiod(1878(1)1932) mspeperiod(1899(1)1916) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0043926 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |        .253
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |        .009
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .403
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .335
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9793563 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1       .991 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0       .009 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7957647 
                     Socialist |         1       .991 
                     Political |         1       .991 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0102846    .009946 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0119941   .0111899 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0102606   .0096986 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0044921    .009079 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=83.39 15:03:48

.         
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.32 15:03:49

. 
. synth_runner cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>                                                                                                                                                                 cite_English(1
> 896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1899(1)1916) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>         parallel
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 1ib8drpm31
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, training & validation
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 186 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0017477   .5376344   .7311828 
          c2 |  .0097921   .1827957   .0537634 
          c3 |  .0175864   .1129032   .0215054 
          c4 |  .0220421   .0698925   .0107527 
          c5 |  .0247469   .0806452          0 
          c6 |   .015057   .1290323   .0322581 
          c7 |  .0121187   .1612903   .0591398 
          c8 |  .0153122   .1290323   .0376344 
          c9 |  .0119368   .1827957   .0967742 
         c10 |   .013998   .1827957   .0913978 
         c11 |  .0175034   .1344086   .0752688 
         c12 |  .0135999    .172043   .0967742 
         c13 |  .0164399    .155914   .0860215 
         c14 |  .0208673   .1290323   .0645161 
         c15 |  .0225542   .1505376   .0645161 
         c16 |   .028559   .1182796   .0430108 
(495 missing values generated)
r; t=11591.66 18:17:02

.         
.         save_synth_runner_output
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .16666667
e(pval_joint_post_std): .0483871

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2632707

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .03678307

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .1949821

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .08602151
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=38.14 18:17:40

.         
.         * Cleanup
.         drop lead cite_English_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
r; t=0.00 18:17:40

.         parallel clean
r; t=0.04 18:17:40

. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Robustness: change Henry George from socialist to not. But otherwise same regressions as the first one.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************  
. 
. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. clear
r; t=0.00 18:17:40

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.01 18:17:40

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.05 18:17:40

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 18:17:40

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 18:17:40

. 
. * Change Henry George to a non-socialist
. preserve
r; t=0.00 18:17:40

. replace Socialist = 0 if Name == "Henry George"
(55 real changes made)
r; t=0.00 18:17:40

. 
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 18:17:40

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917, change Henry George to non-socialist"
r; t=0.00 18:17:40

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, change Henry George to non-socialist"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, change Henry George to non-socialist
r; t=0.00 18:17:40

. 
. baseline_regression
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0027522 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |         .06
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |         .54
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |        .005
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |        .103
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |        .007
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .286
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9791982 
                 wrote_English |         0       .168 
                  wrote_German |         1       .826 
                  wrote_French |         0       .007 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516    .796732 
                     Socialist |         1       .929 
                     Political |         1       .989 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0125901   .0133816 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0169868   .0152464 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .009417    .010593 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0102846   .0107426 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0119941   .0123899 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0102606   .0093025 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0044921   .0051621 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : emwn7ftg33
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, change Henry George to non-socialist
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 193 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0013061    .492228   .5751295 
          c2 |  .0066059   .2227979   .0518135 
          c3 |  .0136157   .1088083    .015544 
          c4 |  .0166163   .0984456   .0103627 
          c5 |  .0206941   .0673575          0 
          c6 |  .0111446   .1606218   .0207254 
          c7 |  .0064346   .2849741   .0414508 
          c8 |  .0091234   .2227979   .0518135 
          c9 |  .0062037   .3056995   .1658031 
         c10 |  .0083413   .2331606   .0932642 
         c11 |  .0136326   .1502591   .0518135 
         c12 |   .009238   .1761658   .0777202 
         c13 |  .0098653   .2176166   .0984456 
         c14 |  .0189548    .134715   .0362694 
         c15 |  .0194318   .1502591   .0518135 
         c16 |  .0258693   .1036269   .0259067 
(110 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .19170984
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04663212

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3178854

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .03121797

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2869669

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .07536505
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=5007.90 19:41:08

.         
. * Change Henry George back
. restore
r; t=0.00 19:41:08

. 
. clear
r; t=0.00 19:41:08

.         
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************  
. * Baseline results, but using "Marx" instead of "Karl Marx"
. * On Google Ngrams, "Marx" and "Karl Marx" have essentially the same shape, so this is essentially testing whether using a different level with the same
. * rate of change produces the same results. We hope to get the same result, because we cannot identify levels, because we don't know whether "Marx" or 
. * "Karl Marx" is more correct. For the same reason, later on, we will normalize outcomes to 1 in an arbitrary year to see if we get the same results.
. *
. * We have to reload the data and keep "Marx" instead of keeping "Karl Marx."
. * Treatment unit is 33 now.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Use snapshot 5, "Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. clear
r; t=0.00 19:41:08

. snapshot restore $Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.01 19:41:08

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                     105-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kempis |         55        0.51        4.59
                  107-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.10
                      108-Külpe |         55        0.51        5.61
                    109-Leibniz |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                 110-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        7.65
             112-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.16
           113-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        8.67
              114-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.18
                115-Machiavelli |         55        0.51        9.69
                     116-Malory |         55        0.51       10.20
                    117-Malthus |         55        0.51       10.71
            118-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.22
                    119-Marlowe |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
              120-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       12.76
                       121-Marx |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.04 19:41:08

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Marx"
r; t=0.00 19:41:08

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 19:41:08

. 
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 19:41:08

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917, using ''Marx''"
r; t=0.00 19:41:08

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1917, using ''Marx''"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, using ''Marx''
r; t=0.00 19:41:08

. 
. baseline_regression
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0175573 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |         .29
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |        .208
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |        .003
                 Nietzsche |        .371
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |        .067
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |        .003
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |        .052
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .007
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9758507 
                 wrote_English |         0       .498 
                  wrote_German |         1       .378 
                  wrote_French |         0       .119 
                   wrote_Greek |         0       .003 
                   wrote_Latin |         0       .003 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7745801 
                     Socialist |         1       .007 
                     Political |         1       .352 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .1231185   .1245838 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .1299299   .1275323 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0830861   .0948028 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0988768    .097954 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0752494   .0661334 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0521844   .0558413 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0341127   .0369277 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : satbcb9v35
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917, using ''Marx''
Randtype       : datetime
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 193 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0268603   .0569948    .134715 
          c2 |  .0365431   .0310881   .0725389 
          c3 |  .0634235   .0051813   .0207254 
          c4 |  .1017468          0   .0103627 
          c5 |  .1153814   .0051813          0 
          c6 |  .0569469    .015544   .0259067 
          c7 |  .0158053   .1295337   .3937824 
          c8 |  .0532624    .015544   .0673575 
          c9 |   .095679          0   .0362694 
         c10 |   .055244    .015544   .0880829 
         c11 |  .1045556   .0051813   .0414508 
         c12 |  .0553812   .0103627   .0673575 
         c13 |  .0805701   .0051813   .0673575 
         c14 |  .1143645          0   .0362694 
         c15 |  .1086099          0   .0569948 
         c16 |  .1538267   .0051813   .0362694 
(110 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .00518135
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04663212

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .00815097

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .03313783

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .00921128

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .08290155
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=8793.73 22:07:42

. 
. *******************************************************************************
. * In-time placebo test: let the treatment be 1889, so that 15 years later is
. * just prior to the 1905 Russian Revolution, which was the "dress rehearsal"
. * of the 1917 revolution.
. *
. * Reload the data with different years.
. *******************************************************************************
. * Use snapshot 2, "All authors, all years"
. clear
r; t=0.01 22:07:42

. snapshot restore $all_authors_all_years_excl_Hegel
r; t=0.02 22:07:42

. * Keep "Karl Marx" and drop "Marx"
. drop if Name == "Marx"
(151 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. 
. * Keep only relevant years
. drop if Year < 1850
(0 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. drop if Year > 1904
(21,792 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. 
. keep if !missing(cite_English) & !missing(YearofTranslationtoEnglish)
(1,705 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. 
. * We start tracking our in-time placebo at 1850, i.e. 39 years before our
. * treatment, just as our previous regressions began the pre-treatment period in 
. * 1878, 39 years prior to our treatment date (1917). 
. *
. * Because our pre-treatment period begins so early, a few authors lack non-zero 
. * outcomes. This may make it difficult to form synthetic counterfactuals for these 
. * authors, making the pre-treatment RMSPE large. 
. *
. * Therefore, we entirely drop any authors whose first 10 years - 1850 to 1859 - 
. * have more than 5 zero outcomes (half of the period).
. *
. * To drop observations, we have to refer to row numbers. To ensure that every 
. * observation's row numbers correspond to the same years, we assert that the 
. * dataset is strongly balanced. This should be true, or else synth will have 
. * previously failed, but we test it anyway just to be sure.
. *
. * In addition, we don't want to call NumberUnits until after every unit that will 
. * be dropped is dropped, because once units are numbered (encoded), those numbers
. * become permanent somehow, even if Name_no is dropped and re-encoded. So to tsset,
. * we generate a temporary numbering.
. * 
. encode Name, generate(temp_Name_no)
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. tsset temp_Name_no Year

Panel variable: temp_Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1850 to 1904
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.01 22:07:42

. sort temp_Name_no Year
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. assert r(balanced) == "strongly balanced"
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. gen zero_outcome = .
(10,780 missing values generated)
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. replace zero_outcome = 0 if cite_English > 0.0 & Year <= 1859
(1,628 real changes made)
r; t=0.01 22:07:42

. replace zero_outcome = 1 if cite_English <= 0.0 & Year <= 1859
(332 real changes made)
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. by temp_Name_no: egen total_zero_outcome = total(zero_outcome)
r; t=0.01 22:07:42

. tabulate Name if total_zero_outcome > 5

              Author's name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
----------------------------+-----------------------------------
               August Bebel |         55        3.13        3.13
                Carl Stumpf |         55        3.13        6.25
                Dostoyevsky |         55        3.13        9.38
           Eduard Bernstein |         55        3.13       12.50
              Eduard Zeller |         55        3.13       15.63
        Eduard von Hartmann |         55        3.13       18.75
         Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        3.13       21.88
          Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        3.13       25.00
             Francis Pretty |         55        3.13       28.13
             Franz Brentano |         55        3.13       31.25
 Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        3.13       34.38
             Friedrich List |         55        3.13       37.50
             Grimmelshausen |         55        3.13       40.63
              Hermann Cohen |         55        3.13       43.75
              Hermann Lotze |         55        3.13       46.88
            Hippolyte Taine |         55        3.13       50.00
    James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        3.13       53.13
                  Kropotkin |         55        3.13       56.25
                      Külpe |         55        3.13       59.38
             Ludwig Büchner |         55        3.13       62.50
              Lujo Brentano |         55        3.13       65.63
                 Moses Hess |         55        3.13       68.75
            Otto Pfleiderer |         55        3.13       71.88
 Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        3.13       75.00
                      Rilke |         55        3.13       78.13
                  Schmoller |         55        3.13       81.25
                   Schäffle |         55        3.13       84.38
                    Sombart |         55        3.13       87.50
            Theodor Fontane |         55        3.13       90.63
                     Thünen |         55        3.13       93.75
      William Graham Sumner |         55        3.13       96.88
                 Windelband |         55        3.13      100.00
----------------------------+-----------------------------------
                      Total |      1,760      100.00
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. drop if total_zero_outcome > 5
(1,760 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. drop temp_Name_no zero_outcome total_zero_outcome
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. 
. NormalizeVariables      

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |      9,020    .0405187    .0882027          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |      8,800    .0068462    .0194134          0   .3046719

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      8,635    .0257622    .0644955          0   .9171798

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |      8,580    .0073875     .028288          0   .4730188

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |        735    .0548046    .0997148          0          1
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. NumberUnits

                Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
-----------------------------+-----------------------------------
           1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.61        0.61
         10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.61        1.22
           100-Martin Luther |         55        0.61        1.83
             101-Max Stirner |         55        0.61        2.44
                 102-Mazzini |         55        0.61        3.05
                 103-Molière |         55        0.61        3.66
               104-Montaigne |         55        0.61        4.27
             105-Montesquieu |         55        0.61        4.88
           106-Nassau Senior |         55        0.61        5.49
                  107-Newton |         55        0.61        6.10
               108-Nietzsche |         55        0.61        6.71
        109-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.61        7.32
             11-Aristophanes |         55        0.61        7.93
   110-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.61        8.54
             111-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.61        9.15
                 112-Pasteur |         55        0.61        9.76
    113-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.61       10.37
                114-Pericles |         55        0.61       10.98
          115-Philip Nichols |         55        0.61       11.59
        116-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.61       12.20
                   117-Plato |         55        0.61       12.80
       118-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.61       13.41
                119-Plutarch |         55        0.61       14.02
                12-Aristotle |         55        0.61       14.63
                120-Proudhon |         55        0.61       15.24
     121-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.61       15.85
                   122-Ranke |         55        0.61       16.46
                   123-Renan |         55        0.61       17.07
          124-Richard Cobden |         55        0.61       17.68
         125-Robert Browning |         55        0.61       18.29
            126-Robert Burns |         55        0.61       18.90
             127-Robert Owen |         55        0.61       19.51
               128-Rodbertus |         55        0.61       20.12
                129-Rousseau |         55        0.61       20.73
          13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.61       21.34
             130-SainteBeuve |         55        0.61       21.95
          131-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.61       22.56
                 132-Scheler |         55        0.61       23.17
          133-Schleiermacher |         55        0.61       23.78
            134-Schopenhauer |         55        0.61       24.39
                  135-Simmel |         55        0.61       25.00
           136-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.61       25.61
                137-Sismondi |         55        0.61       26.22
               138-Sophocles |         55        0.61       26.83
                 139-Spinoza |         55        0.61       27.44
            14-Auguste Comte |         55        0.61       28.05
                 140-Tacitus |         55        0.61       28.66
           141-Thomas Browne |         55        0.61       29.27
          142-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.61       29.88
        143-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.61       30.49
             144-Thomas Mann |         55        0.61       31.10
             145-Thomas More |         55        0.61       31.71
                 146-Thoreau |         55        0.61       32.32
              147-Thucydides |         55        0.61       32.93
             148-Tocqueville |         55        0.61       33.54
             149-Victor Hugo |         55        0.61       34.15
                15-Augustine |         55        0.61       34.76
                  150-Virgil |         55        0.61       35.37
                151-Voltaire |         55        0.61       35.98
            152-Walt Whitman |         55        0.61       36.59
          153-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.61       37.20
    154-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.61       37.80
          155-William Caxton |         55        0.61       38.41
          156-William Godwin |         55        0.61       39.02
        157-William Harrison |         55        0.61       39.63
          158-William Harvey |         55        0.61       40.24
            159-William Penn |         55        0.61       40.85
                  16-Bakunin |         55        0.61       41.46
           160-William Roper |         55        0.61       42.07
      161-William Wordsworth |         55        0.61       42.68
          162-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.61       43.29
                   163-Wundt |         55        0.61       43.90
               164-de Gouges |         55        0.61       44.51
   17-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.61       45.12
                  18-Bastiat |         55        0.61       45.73
        19-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.61       46.34
                2-Adam Smith |         55        0.61       46.95
        20-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.61       47.56
                  21-Bentham |         55        0.61       48.17
                   22-Bigges |         55        0.61       48.78
                  23-Blanqui |         55        0.61       49.39
                  24-Cellini |         55        0.61       50.00
                25-Cervantes |         55        0.61       50.61
           26-Charles Darwin |         55        0.61       51.22
          27-Charles Fourier |         55        0.61       51.83
                  28-Chaucer |         55        0.61       52.44
                   29-Cicero |         55        0.61       53.05
                 3-Aeschylus |         55        0.61       53.66
               30-Clausewitz |         55        0.61       54.27
               31-Copernicus |         55        0.61       54.88
          32-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.61       55.49
            33-David Ricardo |         55        0.61       56.10
                34-Descartes |         55        0.61       56.71
                  35-Dilthey |         55        0.61       57.32
                   36-Dryden |         55        0.61       57.93
                 37-Durkheim |         55        0.61       58.54
           38-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.61       59.15
               39-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.61       59.76
                     4-Aesop |         55        0.61       60.37
             40-Edmund Burke |         55        0.61       60.98
           41-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.61       61.59
           42-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.61       62.20
             43-Edward Haies |         55        0.61       62.80
            44-Edward Jenner |         55        0.61       63.41
                45-Epictetus |         55        0.61       64.02
                46-Euripides |         55        0.61       64.63
                  47-Faraday |         55        0.61       65.24
                   48-Fichte |         55        0.61       65.85
            49-Francis Bacon |         55        0.61       66.46
        5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.61       67.07
       50-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.61       67.68
                    51-Frege |         55        0.61       68.29
52-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.61       68.90
       53-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.61       69.51
                54-Froissart |         55        0.61       70.12
                   55-Goethe |         55        0.61       70.73
 56-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.61       71.34
           57-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.61       71.95
                   58-Hamann |         55        0.61       72.56
  59-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.61       73.17
        6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.61       73.78
                60-Helmholtz |         55        0.61       74.39
           61-Henry Fielding |         55        0.61       75.00
             62-Henry George |         55        0.61       75.61
                  63-Herbart |         55        0.61       76.22
          64-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.61       76.83
                   65-Herder |         55        0.61       77.44
                66-Herodotus |         55        0.61       78.05
              67-Hippocrates |         55        0.61       78.66
                   68-Hobbes |         55        0.61       79.27
                    69-Homer |         55        0.61       79.88
            7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.61       80.49
                     70-Hume |         55        0.61       81.10
                71-Hölderlin |         55        0.61       81.71
            72-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.61       82.32
             73-Izaak Walton |         55        0.61       82.93
            74-James Madison |         55        0.61       83.54
              75-Jean Racine |         55        0.61       84.15
              76-John Bunyan |         55        0.61       84.76
           77-John C Calhoun |         55        0.61       85.37
              78-John Calvin |         55        0.61       85.98
                79-John Knox |         55        0.61       86.59
             8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.61       87.20
               80-John Locke |         55        0.61       87.80
              81-John Milton |         55        0.61       88.41
              82-John Ruskin |         55        0.61       89.02
         83-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.61       89.63
             84-John Woolman |         55        0.61       90.24
           85-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.61       90.85
            86-Joseph Lister |         55        0.61       91.46
                    87-Kafka |         55        0.61       92.07
                88-Karl Marx |         55        0.61       92.68
                   89-Kelvin |         55        0.61       93.29
                   9-Aquinas |         55        0.61       93.90
                   90-Kempis |         55        0.61       94.51
                  91-Leibniz |         55        0.61       95.12
               92-Lord Acton |         55        0.61       95.73
               93-Lord Byron |         55        0.61       96.34
         94-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.61       96.95
              95-Machiavelli |         55        0.61       97.56
                   96-Malory |         55        0.61       98.17
                  97-Malthus |         55        0.61       98.78
          98-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.61       99.39
                  99-Marlowe |         55        0.61      100.00
-----------------------------+-----------------------------------
                       Total |      9,020      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1850 to 1904
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.04 22:07:42

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. 
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1889 (Placebo)"
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1889 (Placebo)"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1889 (Placebo)
r; t=0.00 22:07:42

. 
. synth cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_English(1886(1)1888) cite_English(1880(1)1882) cite_English(1874(1)1876) cite_English(1868(1)1870) cite_English(1862(1)1864) cite_English(1856(1)1858) cite_Engli
> sh(1850(1)1852), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1889) resultsperiod(1850(1)1904) mspeperiod(1850(1)1888) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant, Benjamin
                              Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz, Copernicus, Dante Alighieri,
                              David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund Spenser, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies,
                              Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich Schiller,
                              Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Gustav Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart,
                              Herbert Spencer, Herder, Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Madison, Jean Racine, John
                              Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift, Joseph
                              Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Feuerbach, Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin
                              Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Nassau Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar
                              Wilde, Pasteur, Percy Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo
                              Emerson, Ranke, Renan, Richard Cobden, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler,
                              Schleiermacher, Schopenhauer, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Thomas Browne, Thomas Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson,
                              Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt,
                              William Caxton, William Godwin, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William Roper, William Wordsworth, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de
                              Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878
                              1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888
Results obtained for periods: 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878
                              1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1886(1)1888) cite_English(1880(1)1882) cite_English(1874(1)1876) cite_English(1868(1)1870) cite_English(1862(1)1864)
                              cite_English(1856(1)1858) cite_English(1850(1)1852)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878
                              1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0011365 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

---------------------------------------
                    Co_No | Unit_Weight
--------------------------+------------
          Abraham Lincoln |           0
               Adam Smith |           0
                Aeschylus |           0
                    Aesop |           0
       Alessandro Manzoni |           0
       Alexander Hamilton |           0
           Alexander Pope |           0
            Ambroise Paré |           0
                  Aquinas |           0
         Archibald Geikie |           0
             Aristophanes |           0
                Aristotle |           0
          Auberon Herbert |           0
            Auguste Comte |           0
                Augustine |           0
                  Bakunin |           0
   Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                  Bastiat |           0
        Benjamin Constant |           0
        Benjamin Franklin |           0
                  Bentham |           0
                   Bigges |           0
                  Blanqui |           0
                  Cellini |           0
                Cervantes |           0
           Charles Darwin |           0
          Charles Fourier |           0
                  Chaucer |           0
                   Cicero |           0
               Clausewitz |           0
               Copernicus |           0
          Dante Alighieri |           0
            David Ricardo |           0
                Descartes |           0
                  Dilthey |           0
                   Dryden |           0
                 Durkheim |           0
           E T A Hoffmann |           0
               Ebbinghaus |           0
             Edmund Burke |           0
           Edmund Spenser |           0
           Edward Bellamy |           0
             Edward Haies |           0
            Edward Jenner |           0
                Epictetus |           0
                Euripides |           0
                  Faraday |           0
                   Fichte |           0
            Francis Bacon |           0
       Frederick Douglass |           0
                    Frege |           0
Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
       Friedrich Schiller |           0
                Froissart |           0
                   Goethe |           0
 Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
           Gustav Freytag |           0
                   Hamann |           0
  Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                Helmholtz |        .006
           Henry Fielding |           0
             Henry George |           0
                  Herbart |           0
          Herbert Spencer |           0
                   Herder |           0
                Herodotus |           0
              Hippocrates |           0
                   Hobbes |           0
                    Homer |           0
                     Hume |           0
                Hölderlin |           0
            Immanuel Kant |           0
             Izaak Walton |           0
            James Madison |           0
              Jean Racine |           0
              John Bunyan |           0
           John C Calhoun |           0
              John Calvin |           0
                John Knox |           0
               John Locke |           0
              John Milton |           0
              John Ruskin |           0
         John Stuart Mill |           0
             John Woolman |           0
           Jonathan Swift |           0
            Joseph Lister |           0
                    Kafka |           0
                   Kelvin |           0
                   Kempis |           0
                  Leibniz |           0
               Lord Acton |           0
               Lord Byron |           0
         Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
              Machiavelli |           0
                   Malory |           0
                  Malthus |           0
          Marcus Aurelius |           0
                  Marlowe |           0
            Martin Luther |           0
              Max Stirner |           0
                  Mazzini |           0
                  Molière |           0
                Montaigne |           0
              Montesquieu |           0
            Nassau Senior |           0
                   Newton |           0
                Nietzsche |           0
         Oliver Goldsmith |           0
    Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
              Oscar Wilde |           0
                  Pasteur |        .011
     Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                 Pericles |           0
           Philip Nichols |           0
         Pierre Corneille |           0
                    Plato |           0
        Pliny the Younger |           0
                 Plutarch |           0
                 Proudhon |           0
      Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                    Ranke |           0
                    Renan |           0
           Richard Cobden |           0
          Robert Browning |           0
             Robert Burns |           0
              Robert Owen |           0
                Rodbertus |        .978
                 Rousseau |           0
              SainteBeuve |           0
           Samuel Johnson |           0
                  Scheler |           0
           Schleiermacher |           0
             Schopenhauer |        .004
                   Simmel |           0
            Simon Newcomb |           0
                 Sismondi |           0
                Sophocles |           0
                  Spinoza |           0
                  Tacitus |           0
            Thomas Browne |           0
           Thomas Carlyle |           0
         Thomas Jefferson |           0
              Thomas Mann |           0
              Thomas More |           0
                  Thoreau |           0
               Thucydides |           0
              Tocqueville |           0
              Victor Hugo |           0
                   Virgil |           0
                 Voltaire |           0
             Walt Whitman |           0
           Walter Raleigh |           0
     Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
           William Caxton |           0
           William Godwin |           0
         William Harrison |           0
           William Harvey |           0
             William Penn |           0
            William Roper |           0
       William Wordsworth |           0
           Wollstonecraft |           0
                    Wundt |           0
                de Gouges |           0
---------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9816444   .9741798 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1       .988 
                  wrote_French |         0       .011 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .8157454   .8324288 
                     Socialist |         1       .978 
                     Political |         1       .978 
     cite_English(1886(1)1888) |  .0068845   .0058622 
     cite_English(1880(1)1882) |  .0021791   .0020815 
     cite_English(1874(1)1876) |  .0018623   .0016047 
     cite_English(1868(1)1870) |  .0006132   .0008723 
     cite_English(1862(1)1864) |  .0000336   .0010108 
     cite_English(1856(1)1858) |         0   .0006907 
     cite_English(1850(1)1852) |  .0000226   .0001299 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=57.96 22:08:40

.         
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.32 22:08:40

. 
. synth_runner cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_English(1886(1)1888) cite_English(1880(1)1882) cite_English(1874(1)1876) cite_English(1868(1)1870) cite_English(1862(1)1864) cite_English(1856(1)1858) cite_Engli
> sh(1850(1)1852), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1889) mspeperiod(1850(1)1888) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>         parallel 
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 5f61e6fx37
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1889 (Placebo)
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 161 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0009393   .5900621   .3354037 
          c2 |  .0014099   .6149068   .2919255 
          c3 |  .0034227   .3850932   .0993789 
          c4 |  .0008645   .7018634   .5093168 
          c5 |  .0018202   .5590062   .2546584 
          c6 |  .0046109   .3416149   .1180124 
          c7 |  .0031276   .5217391   .2236025 
          c8 |  .0014003   .7142857   .4347826 
          c9 |  .0014645   .6645963   .3602484 
         c10 |  .0045146   .3913043   .1118012 
         c11 | -.0014627   .6397516   .3416149 
         c12 | -.0002281   .9254658   .8509317 
         c13 |  .0021766   .5279503   .2173913 
         c14 |  .0031301   .4782609   .1677019 
         c15 |  .0038775   .4409938   .1180124 
         c16 |  .0033834   .5031056   .1925466 
(110 missing values generated)
r; t=1679.03 22:36:39

. 
.         save_synth_runner_output
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .63975155
e(pval_joint_post_std): .27950311

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .9278227

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .4625002

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .7619048

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .4433827
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=18.78 22:36:58

.         
.         * Cleanup
.         drop lead cite_English_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

.         parallel clean  
r; t=0.04 22:36:58

. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************  
. * In-time placebo, using 1905 as the treatment period - for the 1905 Russian Revolution
. * 
. * Once, I (Michael Makovi) had arbitarily used 1901 as the treatment period for an in-time placebo, simply because its 15 year treatment period would end just 
. * prior to 1917. It was a convenient way to move the window back. But I got a statistically significant treatment effect, and I was worried. I asked, "Did anything 
. * noteworthy happen in 1905?", and that's when I learned about the 1905 Russian Revolution. And then I realized it was a confounder.
. *
. * Since then, we've gotten additional donors in our pool, so now we are testing the 1905 Russian Revolution deliberately and explicitly. Having seen the 1901 results,
. * with the smaller sample, and having reconsidered the 1905 Russian Revolution, we formed this hypothesis: that the 1905 Russian Revolution had a treatment effect but 
. * that it dissipated and that by 1917, Marx had mostly returned to trend. We test this hypothesis using a larger sample, including donors that were not in our pool 
. * when we first saw the 1901 results.
. *
. * We should expect the 1905 Russian Revolution to have some effect for the exact same reason as the 1917 revolution. However, because the 1905 revolution was ultimately
. * abortive, while the 1917 had enduring effects, we expect that the treatment effect of 1905 will become statistically insignificant by 1917.
. *
. * So our prediction is this: the joint post std p-value (post-RMSPE over pre-RMSPE ratio) will be significant, but the final years will not be individually significant,
. * and the treatment effect by 1917 will be very small, as Marx returns to trend.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Use snapshot 2, "All authors, all years"
. clear
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. snapshot restore $all_authors_all_years_excl_Hegel
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. * Keep "Marx" and drop "Karl Marx"
. drop if Name == "Marx"
(151 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. * Keep only the relevant years - move our window back to 1860-1916
. drop if Year < 1860
(2,270 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. drop if Year > 1916
(19,068 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. 
. keep if !missing(cite_English) & !missing(YearofTranslationtoEnglish)
(1,767 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. 
. NormalizeVariables

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     11,172    .0319076    .0748891          0   .8224099

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,887     .005869    .0183877          0   .3046719

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |     10,317     .021831    .0585305          0   .9171798

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,602    .0065699    .0302349          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,128    .0426031    .0882625          0          1
r; t=0.01 22:36:58

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         57        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         57        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         57        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         57        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         57        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         57        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         57        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         57        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         57        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         57        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         57        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         57        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         57        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         57        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         57        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         57        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         57        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         57        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         57        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         57        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         57        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         57        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         57        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         57        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         57        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         57        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         57        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         57        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         57        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         57        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         57        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         57        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         57        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         57        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         57        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         57        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         57        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         57        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         57        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         57        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         57        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         57        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         57        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         57        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         57        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         57        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         57        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         57        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         57        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         57        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         57        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         57        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         57        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         57        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         57        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         57        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         57        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         57        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         57        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         57        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         57        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         57        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         57        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         57        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         57        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         57        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         57        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         57        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         57        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         57        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         57        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         57        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         57        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         57        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         57        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         57        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         57        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         57        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         57        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         57        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         57        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         57        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         57        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         57        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         57        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         57        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         57        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         57        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         57        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         57        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         57        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         57        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         57        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         57        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         57        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         57        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         57        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         57        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         57        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         57        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         57        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         57        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         57        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         57        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         57        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         57        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         57        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         57        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         57        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         57        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         57        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         57        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         57        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         57        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         57        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         57        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         57        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         57        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         57        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         57        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         57        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         57        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         57        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         57        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         57        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         57        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         57        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         57        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         57        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         57        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         57        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         57        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         57        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         57        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         57        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         57        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         57        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         57        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         57        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         57        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         57        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         57        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         57        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         57        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         57        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         57        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         57        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         57        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         57        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         57        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         57        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         57        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         57        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         57        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         57        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         57        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         57        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         57        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         57        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         57        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         57        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         57        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         57        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         57        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         57        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         57        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         57        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         57        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         57        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         57        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         57        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         57        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         57        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         57        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         57        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         57        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         57        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         57        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         57        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         57        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         57        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         57        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         57        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         57        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         57        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         57        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         57        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         57        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         57        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         57        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         57        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         57        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         57        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         57        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         57        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         57        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     11,172      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1860 to 1916
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.05 22:36:58

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. 
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1905 Revolution"
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. cd "$path\results\Treatment 1905 Revolution"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1905 Revolution
r; t=0.00 22:36:58

. 
. synth cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880) cite_English(1872(1)1874) cite_Engli
> sh(1866(1)1868) cite_English(1860(1)1862), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1905) resultsperiod(1860(1)1916) mspeperiod(1860(1)1904) ///
>         fig keep("synth_results") replace 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888
                              1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904
Results obtained for periods: 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888
                              1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
                              cite_English(1872(1)1874) cite_English(1866(1)1868) cite_English(1860(1)1862)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888
                              1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0012283 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .478
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |        .012
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |        .015
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .373
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |        .122
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9782658 
                 wrote_English |         0       .012 
                  wrote_German |         1       .973 
                  wrote_French |         0       .015 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8012778 
                     Socialist |         1       .851 
                     Political |         1       .863 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0074235   .0072248 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0081075   .0084657 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0094551   .0092819 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0080885   .0076956 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0035411   .0035195 
     cite_English(1872(1)1874) |  .0021904   .0022051 
     cite_English(1866(1)1868) |  .0002955   .0009439 
     cite_English(1860(1)1862) |  .0000633   .0005322 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r; t=126.46 22:39:04

. 
.         save_synth_output
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.32 22:39:05

.         
. synth_runner cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880) cite_English(1872(1)1874) cite_Engli
> sh(1866(1)1868) cite_English(1860(1)1862), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1905) mspeperiod(1860(1)1904) ///
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>         parallel
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : i1u69b8o39
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1905 Revolution
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0007486   .5979381   .5309278 
          c2 |  .0035412   .3041237   .0360825 
          c3 |  .0059704    .242268   .0360825 
          c4 |  .0076495    .185567          0 
          c5 |  .0037881   .3041237   .0618557 
          c6 |  .0074037   .2061856          0 
          c7 |    .00287   .3608247   .1134021 
          c8 |  .0076938   .1701031   .0257732 
          c9 |  .0028697   .3762887   .1030928 
         c10 |  .0056889   .2628866    .056701 
         c11 |  .0033544   .3453608   .1546392 
         c12 |  .0035895   .3659794   .0927835 
(57 missing values generated)
r; t=9304.19 1:14:09

. 
.         save_synth_runner_output
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .36597938
e(pval_joint_post_std): .07731959

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .5936018

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02498199

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .4104967

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .03092783
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=30.45 1:14:39

.         
.         * Cleanup
.         drop lead cite_English_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

.         parallel clean                          
r; t=0.03 1:14:39

. 
. *******************************************************************************
. * Regressions on trends
. * One problem we have is that we aren't sure we are identifying levels. E.g., we use "Karl Marx"
. * but "Rodbertus." So we are mixing lastname-only with firstname-lastname. We can't be consistent
. * because some people have common lastnames - e.g. Adam Smith - while other people have 
. * inconsistent or varying full names - e.g. Pierre-Joseph Proudhon with and without the hyphen
. * and with and without the middle name "Joseph."
. *
. * So we can't be sure we are identifying levels properly. Our identification strategy is 
. * based on the assumption that synthetic control can match trends (rates of growth) even if
. * the levels are mismeasured.
. *
. * But if that's true, then we should get the same results if we re-scale everyone arbitrarily.
. * Now, synth_runner has a trends option, which is supposed to normalize everyone to an outcome
. * of 1 in the last pre-treatment year. But synth lacks any similar option. Furthermore, we want 
. * to try normalizing in different years. So we run a set of iterations of our baseline regression 
. * in which we arbitrarily scale everyone's outcome variable to be equal to one in each of the 
. * pre-treatment years.
. *******************************************************************************
. 
. * Reduce the level of convergence from $convergence to $convergence_normalization
. * Since we will be calling baseline_regression, which has already been defined to use
. * $convergence, we simply change the value of $convergence to the value of $convergence_normalization
. * The original value of $convergence has already been saved in $convergence_backup, so we could always
. * change it back if necessary.
. global convergence = "$convergence_normalization"
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. 
. cd "$path\results\"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. capture mkdir "normalize"
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. cd "$path\results\normalize"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. 
. * Because we run so many normalizations in different years, we want to save some summary results of all the different normalizations, in a single spreadsheet
. * This spreadsheet will have already been initialized (e.g. with column names) when this program is called
. * We save the number of placebos, the joint post std p-value, the AEP p-value, and the Simes p-value for each normalization
. capture program drop save_normalization_summary
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. program define save_normalization_summary
  1.         
.         args year
  2. 
.         cd "$path\results\normalize"
  3.         putexcel set "normalization_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Normalization results)  
  4.         
.         matrix no_placebos = e(n_pl)
  5.         matrix joint_post_std_p_value = e(pval_joint_post_std)
  6.         matrix pval_std_aep = e(pval_std_AEP)
  7.         matrix pval_std_simes = e(pval_std_simes)
  8.         putexcel (A$i) = `year'
  9.         putexcel (B$i) = no_placebos[1,1], names overwritefmt
 10.         putexcel (C$i) = joint_post_std_p_value[1,1], names overwritefmt
 11.         putexcel (D$i) = pval_std_aep[1,1], names overwritefmt
 12.         putexcel (E$i) = pval_std_simes[1,1], names overwritefmt
 13.         
.         * Obtain the percent difference in outcomes for (1) the final post-treatment year, and (2) the entire post-treatment period.
.         * We treat the synthetic outcome as the base, because it is the "true" value against which differences should be evaluated.
.         *
.         * First, percent difference in the final post-treatment year.
.         matrix outcomes = e(treat_control)
 14.         local last_row_number = rowsof(outcomes)
 15.         local pct_diff_final_year = (outcomes[`last_row_number',1]-outcomes[`last_row_number',2]) / outcomes[`last_row_number',2] * 100
 16.         putexcel (F$i) = `pct_diff_final_year', names overwritefmt
 17.         * 
.         * Second, percent difference for the entire post-treatment period.
.         local num_of_post_treat_outcomes = colsof(e(b))
 18.         matrix post_treatment_outcomes = e(treat_control)["post1".."post`num_of_post_treat_outcomes'",1...]
 19.         mata: post_treatment_outcomes = st_matrix("post_treatment_outcomes")
 20.                 mata: sums = colsum(post_treatment_outcomes)
 21.                 mata: pct_diff_avg = (sums[1,1]-sums[1,2])/sums[1,2]*100
 22.                 mata: st_matrix("pct_diff_avg",pct_diff_avg)
 23.         local pct_diff_avg = pct_diff_avg[1,1]
 24.         putexcel (G$i) = `pct_diff_avg', names overwritefmt
 25.         mata: mata clear
 26.         
. end
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. 
. * This program will perform a baseline SCM regression that normalizes outcomes to 1 in any arbitrary year, where the year is an argument
. capture program drop normalized_regression
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. program define normalized_regression
  1.         
.         args year
  2.         
.         * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
.         clear
  3.         snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
  4.         NumberUnits
  5.         quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
  6.         global trunit = r(mean)
  7.         
.         * We are going to be normalizing cite_English, so preserve the dataset as it was before normalization
.         * This is unnecessary due to the snapshot restore we run every time, but we use preserve and restore too just to be safe
.         * preserve
.         
.         * cite_English_in_`year' is equal to cite_English[X], where X is a row number
.         * Within a bysort Name (Year), row number X is determined by counting from row 1 in 1878 until 
.         * we get to `year'. For example 1881 is row 4. More generally, the first year is Year[1] 
.         * rather than 1878. Therefore, (`year' - Year[1] + 1) is the row number of `year', given
.         * that row 1 is Year[1]. Thus, cite_English_in_`year' = cite_English[`year' - Year[1] + 1]
.         bysort Name (Year): gen cite_English_in_`year' = cite_English[`year' - Year[1] + 1]
  8. 
.         * We're going to be normalizing by dividing cite_English by the value of cite_English_in_`year'
.         * The problem is that a few observations (approximately 10 obs) have 
.         * values of cite_English_in_`year' of exactly 0 (zero), so they create division by zero errors. 
.         * To solve this problem, I'm going to replace zeroes with values equal to the smallest 
.         * non-zero value (in any year) for that particular author.
.         *
.         * We have to perform two steps to find the minimum non-zero value of min_cite_English
.         * First, "bysort Name: egen min_cite_English = min(cite_English) if cite_English > 0" 
.         * finds the minimum non-zero value, but only for the observations which have a non-zero value.
.         * That is, for the observations for which cite_English == 0, min_cite_English 
.         * has a missing value. So then we have to find the mean value of min_cite_English.
.         * The mean value will be the mean of missing values and of identical present values,
.         * and thus the mean value will be equal to the present values - but now every 
.         * observation has that value, including the observations for which cite_English == 0.
.         bysort Name: egen min_cite_English = min(cite_English) if cite_English > 0
  9.         bysort Name: egen min_cite_English_m = mean(min_cite_English)
 10.         replace cite_English_in_`year' = min_cite_English_m if cite_English_in_`year' == 0
 11.         
.         gen cite_English_norm = cite_English / cite_English_in_`year'
 12.         
.         * replace cite_English with cite_English_norm so that we can call the baseline_regression program
.         replace cite_English = cite_English_norm 
 13.         
.         * After normalizing all authors have to outcome == 1 in a given arbitrary year, to ensure that every author is on the same level (in that year),
.         * we re-normalize so that all variables fall in the [0,1] interval, to accelerate convergence.
.         NormalizeVariables
 14.         
.         cd "$path\results\normalize"
 15.         capture mkdir "Treatment 1917 - normalize `year'"
 16.         cd "$path\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize `year'"
 17.         
.         * We capture the SCM regression because sometimes, it fails to converge, which throws an error and halts termination.
.         * If _rc == 0 i.e. there is no error, then add the result to the list of results by calling the program save_normalization_summary
.         * But if _rc != 0 i.e. there is an error then just write the year to the results, but leave everything else (no. placebos, p-value) blank
.         capture noisily {
 18.                 baseline_regression
 19.         }
 20.         if _rc == 0 {
 21.                 save_normalization_summary `year'
 22.         }
 23.         else if _rc != 0 {
 24.                 cd "$path\results\normalize"
 25.                 putexcel set "normalization_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Normalization results)
 26.                 putexcel (A$i) = `year'
 27.         }
 28.         
.         * Restore the dataset as it was before we normalized cite_English
.         * restore 
. 
. end
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. 
. **************************************************      
. * Regressions, normalize every year
. ************************************************** 
. 
. cd "$path\results\normalize"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. 
. * Initialize the normalization summary results
. putexcel set "normalization_results.xlsx", replace sheet(Normalization results)
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
r; t=0.01 1:14:39

. putexcel (A1) = "Normalization year"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 1:14:39

. putexcel (B1) = "No. placebos"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 1:14:39

. putexcel (C1) = "Joint post std p"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 1:14:39

. putexcel (D1) = "AEP p-value"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 1:14:39

. putexcel (E1) = "Simes p-value"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 1:14:39

. putexcel (F1) = "Pct diff btw treated & synth - 1932"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 1:14:39

. putexcel (G1) = "Pct diff btw treated & synth - 1917-32"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 1:14:39

. 
. * i indicates the row number that we will be saving the results in a spreadsheet
. * In each iteration of the loop, we save the year, the number of placeobs, and the joint-post-std p-value in a new row of the spreadsheet
. * For some reason, putexcel would sometimes fail when i was a local, so I made it a global instead
. global i = 2
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. global step = 1
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. if ($quick_bug_testing == 1) {
.         global step = 9
r; t=0.00 1:14:39
. }
r; t=0.00 1:14:39

. foreach year of numlist 1878($step)1916 {
  2.         * The following line, which is commented out, is useful for testing whether this code successfully accounts for iterations of SCM that fail
.         * to converge. In the program normalized_regression, when there is a failure to converge, then instead of calling save_normalization_summary,
.         * the program will save the year but neither a number of placebos nor a p-value. The result will be a table in which each row is an attempted test,
.         * the columns are year, no. placebos, and p-value, and some rows have values in all three columns but some rows have only a value of year
.         * and a blank for no. placebos and p-value. Then, when we perform meta-analysis below, the rows with blanks for no. placebos and/or p-value
.         * will be ignored. Because SCM takes so long to run, it is difficult to test this code. The following foreach loop will deliberately cause
.         * errors by setting convergence to "" (to avoid the time taken by nested) and then calling normalized_regression for years in which there 
.         * is no data at all - which will cause SCM to fail similarly to the way it fails when it cannot achieve convergence. 
.         *
.         * global convergence = ""
.         * foreach year of numlist 1890 2000 2001 1892 {
. 
.         normalized_regression `year'
  3. 
.         global i = $i + 1
  4.         
. }

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(495 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    8.783622    75.80109          0   2983.878

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1878
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0001507 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |        .004
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .884
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .021
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |         .09
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9767747 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1       .999 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516    .785518 
                     Socialist |         1       .974 
                     Political |         1       .995 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0007457   .0007563 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0010061   .0009604 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0005577   .0006027 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0006091    .000625 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0007104   .0007639 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0006077   .0005177 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |   .000266   .0003425 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 321ffyhp41
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1878
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 193 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0000164   .8290155   .9119171 
          c2 |  .0004344   .1813472   .0310881 
          c3 |  .0009383   .1243523    .015544 
          c4 |  .0012803   .1139896    .015544 
          c5 |  .0012727   .1088083          0 
          c6 |  .0008289    .134715   .0051813 
          c7 |  .0007636   .1088083   .0103627 
          c8 |  .0007069   .1450777   .0310881 
          c9 |  .0004994   .2279793   .1088083 
         c10 |  .0005664   .2227979   .0621762 
         c11 |  .0010908   .1813472   .0259067 
         c12 |  .0007661   .2072539   .0414508 
         c13 |  .0007237   .2020725   .0725389 
         c14 |  .0010498   .1865285   .0362694 
         c15 |  .0012328   .1761658   .0362694 
         c16 |  .0014394   .1917098   .0673575 
(110 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .20207254
e(pval_joint_post_std): .03626943

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3476019

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02152073

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2431779

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04145078
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
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file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(495 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    5.274018    25.35434          0   594.7953

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1879
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0008753 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .006
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .626
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |        .017
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .039
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |        .005
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .307
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451     .97648 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1          1 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7985654 
                     Socialist |         1       .939 
                     Political |         1       .978 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |   .003969   .0042899 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0053551   .0049754 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0029687   .0031693 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0032422   .0031221 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0037812   .0037714 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0032347   .0025084 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0014161   .0013766 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : p4jo8thg43
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1879
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0004138   .4536082   .6030928 
          c2 |   .002095   .1958763   .0412371 
          c3 |   .005195   .1237113   .0206186 
          c4 |  .0061706   .1134021   .0154639 
          c5 |  .0079769   .0824742          0 
          c6 |  .0051868   .0979381          0 
          c7 |  .0047832   .0876289   .0206186 
          c8 |  .0045233   .1391753   .0360825 
          c9 |  .0022162   .2525773   .1494845 
         c10 |  .0031274   .2164948   .0463918 
         c11 |  .0056327   .1958763   .0360825 
         c12 |   .003903   .2061856   .0515464 
         c13 |   .005782    .185567   .0412371 
         c14 |  .0055281   .1701031   .0463918 
         c15 |   .006282   .1649485   .0463918 
         c16 |  .0075361   .1597938   .0463918 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .21134021
e(pval_joint_post_std): .03608247

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3011004

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02407608

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2474227

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04123711
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(385 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    5.663557    32.12244          0   988.0756

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1880
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0010247 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .004
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |        .001
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .026
                Ebbinghaus |        .037
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .892
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .037
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .004
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9791317 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1          1 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7924559 
                     Socialist |         1         .9 
                     Political |         1       .937 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0051284   .0053061 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0069194   .0066885 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0038359   .0041978 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0041893    .004282 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0048857   .0050195 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0041795   .0037045 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0018298   .0019932 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : kqisr5sm45
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1880
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0005391   .3453608   .5103093 
          c2 |   .003275   .1134021   .0206186 
          c3 |  .0070149   .0670103   .0103093 
          c4 |  .0090986   .0721649   .0154639 
          c5 |  .0086528   .0463918          0 
          c6 |  .0050329   .0824742   .0103093 
          c7 |  .0046565   .0773196   .0309278 
          c8 |  .0041528   .0979381   .0412371 
          c9 |  .0039245   .1237113   .0618557 
         c10 |   .003708   .1340206   .0773196 
         c11 |  .0069688   .1134021   .0309278 
         c12 |  .0050037   .1340206   .0360825 
         c13 |  .0052065    .128866   .0618557 
         c14 |  .0072304   .1134021   .0412371 
         c15 |  .0079662   .0927835   .0412371 
         c16 |  .0100481   .1082474   .0360825 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .13402062
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04123711

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1632321

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .025043

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .1429553

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .05498282
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(495 real changes made)
(10,645 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    4.475215    18.39065          0   432.2859

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1881
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0011764 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |        .004
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |        .005
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |        .006
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .743
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |        .168
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .065
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |         .01
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9803532 
                 wrote_English |         0       .178 
                  wrote_German |         1       .818 
                  wrote_French |         0       .005 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7923611 
                     Socialist |         1       .981 
                     Political |         1       .991 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0061121    .006691 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0082467   .0083419 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0045717   .0048458 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0049929   .0052316 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0058228   .0061149 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0049812   .0046162 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0021808   .0019656 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : t9oeiyln47
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1881
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0001937   .7731959   .8453608 
          c2 |  .0046643   .1082474   .0257732 
          c3 |    .00757   .0927835   .0103093 
          c4 |  .0098894   .1185567   .0154639 
          c5 |  .0104903   .0876289          0 
          c6 |  .0060313   .0927835   .0051546 
          c7 |  .0049675   .1185567   .0360825 
          c8 |  .0045687   .1237113   .0206186 
          c9 |   .003049   .2268041   .1443299 
         c10 |  .0040966   .1752577   .0670103 
         c11 |  .0066647   .1546392   .0463918 
         c12 |  .0043948   .1804124   .0721649 
         c13 |  .0053012   .1701031   .0721649 
         c14 |  .0088503   .1443299   .0360825 
         c15 |  .0082381   .1546392   .0515464 
         c16 |   .009887   .1701031    .056701 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .19072165
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04639175

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2707327

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02292584

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2061856

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04123711
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(220 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    4.599892    25.00488          0   814.7892

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1882
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0011379 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .007
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |        .001
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |        .091
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .675
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .226
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9788328 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1       .999 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7955441 
                     Socialist |         1       .682 
                     Political |         1       .682 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0054527   .0056696 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |   .007357      .0071 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0040785   .0046835 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0044543   .0046828 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0051946   .0051747 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0044438   .0043377 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0019455   .0021763 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : sj9czydp49
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1882
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
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child process 0002 has exited without error...
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child process 0026 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0001163   .7128205   .8769231 
          c2 |   .003762   .0717949    .025641 
          c3 |  .0076062   .0564103   .0153846 
          c4 |  .0100384   .0461538   .0051282 
          c5 |  .0094461   .0512821          0 
          c6 |  .0058959   .0717949   .0102564 
          c7 |  .0050965   .0666667   .0307692 
          c8 |  .0049568   .1128205    .025641 
          c9 |  .0049738   .1179487   .0717949 
         c10 |  .0052761   .1076923   .0461538 
         c11 |  .0081896   .1025641   .0461538 
         c12 |  .0058128   .1128205   .0358974 
         c13 |  .0057142   .1025641   .0717949 
         c14 |  .0090558   .0871795   .0410256 
         c15 |  .0093491   .1076923   .0564103 
         c16 |  .0113776   .0923077   .0410256 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .11794872
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04102564

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1353789

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02206336

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .125812

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(440 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    5.734178    46.82031          0    1819.86

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1883
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |   .000234 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |         .01
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .223
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .034
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .002
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |        .011
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .707
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .014
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9752001 
                 wrote_English |         0       .011 
                  wrote_German |         1        .99 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8073039 
                     Socialist |         1       .944 
                     Political |         1        .98 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0010436   .0010523 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0014081   .0014004 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0007806   .0007898 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0008525   .0008187 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0009942   .0010104 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0008505   .0008373 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0003724   .0003765 
------------------------------------------------------
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file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : rw3dcsu251
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1883
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0003305   .2989691   .2010309 
          c2 |  .0005617   .1752577   .0670103 
          c3 |  .0012498   .1391753   .0154639 
          c4 |  .0014012   .1649485   .0257732 
          c5 |  .0018604   .1030928          0 
          c6 |  .0012419   .1134021   .0103093 
          c7 |  .0010928   .1494845   .0103093 
          c8 |  .0003493   .3350515    .314433 
          c9 |    -.0007   .2731959   .2164948 
         c10 |  .0000945   .7010309   .8195876 
         c11 |  .0008763    .257732   .1597938 
         c12 |  .0004835   .3195876    .257732 
         c13 |  .0011196   .2268041   .0670103 
         c14 |  .0007562   .2886598    .257732 
         c15 |   .001297    .242268   .1340206 
         c16 |  .0013864   .2113402   .0927835 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .25257732
e(pval_joint_post_std): .09793814

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .4504775

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .03400856

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3573883

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .05498282
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(220 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    4.998724    42.47871          0   1685.356

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1884
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0001699 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |         .01
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |        .001
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .869
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .077
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .044
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9797327 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1          1 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7966013 
                     Socialist |         1       .923 
                     Political |         1          1 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0007956   .0008672 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0010734   .0010214 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0005951   .0006361 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0006499   .0006274 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0007579   .0008595 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0006484   .0006141 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0002839   .0004002 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : n7y1ndqy53
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1884
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0001364   .4845361   .4793814 
          c2 |  .0003129   .2525773   .0721649 
          c3 |  .0010021   .1391753   .0154639 
          c4 |  .0012283   .1391753   .0154639 
          c5 |  .0014704   .1030928          0 
          c6 |  .0009757   .1134021   .0051546 
          c7 |  .0008597    .128866   .0103093 
          c8 |  .0007632   .1804124   .0360825 
          c9 |  .0005379    .257732   .1185567 
         c10 |  .0005149   .2474227   .1185567 
         c11 |  .0009119   .2010309   .0773196 
         c12 |  .0006407   .2371134   .0773196 
         c13 |  .0008813   .2061856   .0618557 
         c14 |  .0008153   .2268041   .1030928 
         c15 |  .0010458   .2164948   .0876289 
         c16 |  .0014145   .2216495   .0876289 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .24226804
e(pval_joint_post_std): .07216495

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3958091

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .0247345

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2749141

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04123711
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(385 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780     3.52708    18.28591          0   703.0845

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1885
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0003719 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .074
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .157
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |         .36
         Ferdinand Tönnies |        .029
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .293
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |        .014
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .039
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .001
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .032
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9718171 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1       .998 
                  wrote_French |         0       .001 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7908562 
                     Socialist |         1       .467 
                     Political |         1       .789 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |   .001889   .0019457 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0025487   .0025221 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0014129   .0014809 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0015431   .0015203 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0017996   .0018317 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0015395   .0015056 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |   .000674   .0007577 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : mjrwzln455
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1885
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
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child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
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child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0002096   .5360825   .4587629 
          c2 |   .000958   .2113402   .0360825 
          c3 |  .0025873   .1185567   .0103093 
          c4 |   .003093   .1237113   .0154639 
          c5 |  .0034873   .1030928          0 
          c6 |   .002455   .1340206   .0051546 
          c7 |  .0019636   .1391753   .0206186 
          c8 |  .0013525   .2268041   .0412371 
          c9 |  .0010487   .3195876   .1597938 
         c10 |  .0007467   .3556701   .2319588 
         c11 |   .002107   .2525773    .056701 
         c12 |  .0015561   .2525773   .0618557 
         c13 |  .0019364   .2371134   .0824742 
         c14 |  .0022498   .2628866   .0824742 
         c15 |   .001841   .3041237    .128866 
         c16 |  .0001834   .7783505   .7886598 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .28865979
e(pval_joint_post_std): .07731959

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .4576313

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02548102

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3823805

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04123711
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(275 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    2.968027    17.81123          0   709.3652

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1886
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0003874 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .099
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |        .025
               Carl Stumpf |        .004
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |         .02
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .174
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .128
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .544
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |        .004
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9733368 
                 wrote_English |         0       .004 
                  wrote_German |         1       .969 
                  wrote_French |         0       .025 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8092255 
                     Socialist |         1       .846 
                     Political |         1       .974 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0014899   .0015969 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0020102   .0019446 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0011144   .0012084 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0012171   .0011756 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0014194   .0016464 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0012142   .0011399 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0005316   .0005096 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : ddbueczs57
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1886
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0001694   .6494845   .6649485 
          c2 |  .0006802   .2628866   .1185567 
          c3 |  .0019447   .1185567   .0257732 
          c4 |  .0018523   .1237113   .0360825 
          c5 |  .0027971   .0824742          0 
          c6 |  .0018968   .1340206   .0154639 
          c7 |  .0017035   .1546392   .0360825 
          c8 |  .0015079   .1597938   .0412371 
          c9 |  .0006328   .4381443    .371134 
         c10 |  .0008334   .3298969   .2371134 
         c11 |  .0019588   .1907216   .0876289 
         c12 |  .0013174   .2525773   .1134021 
         c13 |  .0018777   .2010309   .0824742 
         c14 |  .0015808   .2680412    .185567 
         c15 |  .0021391    .242268   .1134021 
         c16 |  .0025736   .2216495   .1185567 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .2628866
e(pval_joint_post_std): .10309278

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .4059932

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .04485136

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3298969

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .08247422
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(495 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    3.364805     18.1869          0   988.0756

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1887
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0002228 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |        .037
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .506
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |        .002
            Friedrich List |        .086
        Friedrich Schiller |        .101
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |        .001
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |        .007
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |         .14
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .073
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |        .029
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .001
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |        .002
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |        .001
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9605536 
                 wrote_English |         0       .007 
                  wrote_German |         1       .942 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7710866 
                     Socialist |         1       .514 
                     Political |         1       .674 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0011194   .0010713 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0015104   .0014632 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0008373   .0008683 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0009144   .0008881 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0010664   .0011208 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0009123   .0009324 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0003994   .0005974 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : nkj99apy59
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1887
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0005269   .2358974   .0666667 
          c2 |   .000526   .2410256   .0461538 
          c3 |  .0015685   .1435897   .0051282 
          c4 |  .0018699   .1333333   .0153846 
          c5 |  .0021734   .1128205          0 
          c6 |  .0014235   .1641026          0 
          c7 |  .0012178   .1641026   .0102564 
          c8 |  .0012028   .1846154   .0102564 
          c9 |  .0008236   .2717949   .0769231 
         c10 |  .0008009   .2564103   .0871795 
         c11 |  .0016159         .2   .0358974 
         c12 |  .0011275   .2461538   .0461538 
         c13 |   .001365   .2410256   .0358974 
         c14 |  .0016894    .225641   .0512821 
         c15 |  .0017997   .2051282   .0512821 
         c16 |  .0021967    .174359   .0358974 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .24615385
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04102564

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .4114673

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .01699388

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2717949

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .02735043
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(110 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    2.793357    15.69662          0   568.8578

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1888
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |   .000481 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .032
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |        .009
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .755
         Ferdinand Tönnies |        .015
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .083
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .072
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |        .013
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .012
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |        .009
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9776361 
                 wrote_English |         0       .009 
                  wrote_German |         1       .991 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7954477 
                     Socialist |         1       .787 
                     Political |         1       .897 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0025848   .0026438 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0034875   .0034558 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0019333   .0020221 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0021115    .002081 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0024624   .0024429 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0021065    .001983 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0009222   .0011308 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : q9b3r9pe61
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1888
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0006906   .2680412   .1597938 
          c2 |  .0010071   .2216495   .0463918 
          c3 |  .0033833   .1185567   .0103093 
          c4 |  .0035841   .1185567   .0206186 
          c5 |  .0048655   .0876289          0 
          c6 |  .0033322   .1185567          0 
          c7 |  .0029043   .1082474   .0154639 
          c8 |  .0020522   .1752577   .0309278 
          c9 |   .001033   .3350515   .2164948 
         c10 |  .0013668   .2164948   .1391753 
         c11 |  .0029996   .2113402   .0721649 
         c12 |  .0018005   .2371134   .0876289 
         c13 |  .0027514   .2268041   .0618557 
         c14 |  .0030804   .2113402   .1185567 
         c15 |  .0036935   .2010309   .0721649 
         c16 |  .0045532   .1701031   .0463918 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .22164948
e(pval_joint_post_std): .05154639

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3485786

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02451352

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2709867

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04123711
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(220 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    2.560115    9.676907          0   241.0381

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1889
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0014861 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .662
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .123
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |        .016
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |        .003
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |         .01
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |        .004
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .082
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .099
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .001
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9763952 
                 wrote_English |         0        .03 
                  wrote_German |         1       .888 
                  wrote_French |         0       .082 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7979412 
                     Socialist |         1        .87 
                     Political |         1       .993 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0070092     .00787 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0094569    .009251 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0052426   .0055464 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0057257    .005993 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0066774   .0078016 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0057123   .0053633 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0025008   .0034924 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : tabnek7t63
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1889
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0016969   .3179487   .2717949 
          c2 |   .003164   .1794872   .0717949 
          c3 |  .0090795   .0974359   .0205128 
          c4 |   .010968   .0769231   .0153846 
          c5 |  .0127329   .0717949          0 
          c6 |  .0083392   .0871795   .0051282 
          c7 |  .0070111   .1025641   .0307692 
          c8 |  .0058096   .1487179   .0358974 
          c9 |  .0033533   .3025641   .2153846 
         c10 |  .0044941   .2102564   .1025641 
         c11 |  .0093294   .1333333   .0461538 
         c12 |  .0062825   .1794872   .0820513 
         c13 |  .0087855   .1333333   .0358974 
         c14 |  .0095371   .1641026   .0410256 
         c15 |   .010058   .1487179   .0307692 
         c16 |  .0129508   .1435897   .0358974 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .16410256
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04102564

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2505557

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02499297

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2209073

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(110 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    2.025017    7.709431          0   201.4682

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1890
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0011325 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .018
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .784
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .068
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |        .007
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |        .003
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .121
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9785262 
                 wrote_English |         0       .007 
                  wrote_German |         1       .994 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7967827 
                     Socialist |         1       .923 
                     Political |         1       .991 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0057531   .0064591 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0077622   .0073136 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0043031   .0044613 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0046996   .0048033 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0054808    .006065 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0046886   .0038687 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0020527   .0025262 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : d66bvnm565
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1890
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0011527         .4   .2871795 
          c2 |  .0026122   .1794872   .0615385 
          c3 |  .0080237   .1128205   .0051282 
          c4 |  .0093651   .1076923   .0153846 
          c5 |  .0107853   .0923077          0 
          c6 |  .0072639   .1076923   .0051282 
          c7 |  .0062122   .1076923   .0153846 
          c8 |  .0057398   .1487179   .0102564 
          c9 |  .0045131   .1897436   .0717949 
         c10 |   .004897         .2   .0358974 
         c11 |  .0087311    .174359   .0205128 
         c12 |  .0061537   .1897436   .0307692 
         c13 |  .0077351    .174359    .025641 
         c14 |  .0090852   .1846154    .025641 
         c15 |   .009079   .1794872   .0461538 
         c16 |  .0118144   .1692308   .0307692 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .18974359
e(pval_joint_post_std): .02564103

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .30508

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .01636089

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2133333

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .02735043
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(165 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.691567     5.56733          0   193.2425

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1891
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0009644 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .775
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .021
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .149
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .055
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9785838 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1          1 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7973628 
                     Socialist |         1       .979 
                     Political |         1          1 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0041811   .0049047 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0056413   .0046014 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0031274   .0027345 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0034155   .0034786 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0039832   .0046053 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0034075   .0029567 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0014918   .0022413 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : ltm2nf9k67
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1891
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0004175   .6649485   .6391753 
          c2 |  .0023989    .242268    .056701 
          c3 |  .0053439   .1134021   .0103093 
          c4 |  .0067696    .128866   .0154639 
          c5 |  .0081211   .0979381          0 
          c6 |  .0049389   .1237113   .0103093 
          c7 |  .0042419   .1443299   .0206186 
          c8 |  .0045944   .1804124   .0154639 
          c9 |  .0024335   .3608247   .1701031 
         c10 |  .0030965   .2835052   .0979381 
         c11 |   .003188   .3350515   .1597938 
         c12 |  .0025756   .3402062   .1391753 
         c13 |  .0034688   .3092784   .1443299 
         c14 |  .0025461   .4123711   .2268041 
         c15 |  .0049853    .242268   .0618557 
         c16 |  .0069229    .185567   .0412371 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .26804124
e(pval_joint_post_std): .06701031

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .44307

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02826622

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .4123711

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04948454
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(0 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780     1.24391    2.657269          0   82.93086

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1892
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0032136 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .827
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |        .012
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .056
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |        .014
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |        .028
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .041
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |        .021
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9723761 
                 wrote_English |         0        .04 
                  wrote_German |         1       .938 
                  wrote_French |         0       .021 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7801569 
                     Socialist |         1       .868 
                     Political |         1       .945 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |   .015917   .0176487 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0214756   .0182157 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0119054   .0120759 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0130023   .0122478 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0151636   .0149838 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0129719   .0124739 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0056791   .0084638 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : cjv2lkdy69
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1892
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
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child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0036723   .3435897   .2974359 
          c2 |  .0085989   .1076923   .0564103 
          c3 |  .0199347   .0717949   .0051282 
          c4 |  .0274538   .0666667   .0102564 
          c5 |  .0307088   .0564103          0 
          c6 |  .0155291   .0358974   .0102564 
          c7 |  .0149314   .0769231    .025641 
          c8 |  .0097069   .1435897   .0717949 
          c9 |  .0000702          1          1 
         c10 |  .0063422   .2820513   .2461538 
         c11 |  .0132723   .1589744   .1025641 
         c12 |  .0105749   .1692308   .0923077 
         c13 |  .0150147   .1692308   .0717949 
         c14 |  .0130521   .1794872   .1025641 
         c15 |  .0191702   .1384615   .0410256 
         c16 |  .0146494   .2102564   .1435897 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .14358974
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04102564

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .193371

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02510258

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2393162

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(165 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.703454    7.948719          0   450.4063

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1893
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0004345 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .032
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .079
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .525
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |         .11
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |        .046
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |        .001
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .207
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9720454 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1          1 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7945098 
                     Socialist |         1       .764 
                     Political |         1       .874 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0021679   .0022218 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |   .002925   .0028901 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0016215   .0016855 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0017709   .0017213 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0020653    .002112 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0017668   .0017184 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0007735   .0008412 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : wafq53ey71
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1893
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0003387   .5435897   .4102564 
          c2 |  .0011641   .1641026    .025641 
          c3 |  .0029892   .0769231   .0102564 
          c4 |  .0035162   .0974359   .0153846 
          c5 |  .0040352   .0564103          0 
          c6 |  .0027651   .0615385          0 
          c7 |  .0021849   .0923077   .0153846 
          c8 |   .001451   .2153846   .0615385 
          c9 |  .0011753   .3384615    .174359 
         c10 |  .0007998    .425641   .3128205 
         c11 |  .0025398   .2102564   .0512821 
         c12 |  .0018388   .2051282   .0410256 
         c13 |  .0023165         .2   .0410256 
         c14 |  .0025003   .2102564   .0615385 
         c15 |   .001959   .2666667   .1076923 
         c16 | -.0006484   .5589744   .4512821 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .21538462
e(pval_joint_post_std): .06153846

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2874869

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02364043

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3117949

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(220 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.878224    15.01281          0   988.0756

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1894
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0001885 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .113
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |        .008
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |         .02
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .579
         Ferdinand Tönnies |        .115
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .088
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .046
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .031
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |        .001
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9802848 
                 wrote_English |         0       .001 
                  wrote_German |         1          1 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8064379 
                     Socialist |         1       .723 
                     Political |         1       .927 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0009305   .0009718 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0012554   .0012437 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .000696   .0007427 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0007601   .0007498 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0008864    .000923 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0007583   .0007239 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |   .000332   .0003787 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 8fs4an7y73
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1894
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0000238   .9072165    .871134 
          c2 |  .0003981   .2216495   .0670103 
          c3 |  .0012291   .0927835   .0206186 
          c4 |  .0014239   .1340206   .0103093 
          c5 |  .0017367   .0721649          0 
          c6 |  .0012659   .0721649   .0051546 
          c7 |  .0010794   .1030928   .0206186 
          c8 |  .0008871   .1597938   .0257732 
          c9 |  .0005194   .3814433   .2371134 
         c10 |  .0005063   .3556701   .2010309 
         c11 |  .0010011   .2474227   .0824742 
         c12 |  .0007153   .2525773   .0773196 
         c13 |  .0009641   .2268041    .056701 
         c14 |  .0011696   .2474227    .128866 
         c15 |  .0012558   .2525773   .1391753 
         c16 |  .0016863   .2010309   .0824742 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .25257732
e(pval_joint_post_std): .07216495

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3394535

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02605177

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3108644

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04123711
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(55 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.489498    5.422056          0   193.2425

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1895
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0010818 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .028
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |        .001
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |         .35
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .035
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |        .001
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .039
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .238
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |         .08
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |        .228
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9782039 
                 wrote_English |         0       .001 
                  wrote_German |         1       .998 
                  wrote_French |         0       .001 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8045686 
                     Socialist |         1       .378 
                     Political |         1       .961 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0061355   .0064136 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0082782   .0081397 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0045892   .0046127 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |   .005012   .0051738 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0058451   .0062875 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0050003   .0041822 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0021891   .0030475 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 8e6f7s5875
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1895
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0038492   .1487179    .025641 
          c2 |  .0026761   .2051282   .0769231 
          c3 |  .0087685   .0717949   .0102564 
          c4 |    .00991   .0820513   .0051282 
          c5 |  .0117634   .0512821          0 
          c6 |  .0082081   .0564103          0 
          c7 |    .00656   .0717949   .0102564 
          c8 |  .0073316   .0666667   .0051282 
          c9 |   .004572   .1948718   .0820513 
         c10 |  .0049722   .1589744   .0512821 
         c11 |  .0093046   .1384615    .025641 
         c12 |  .0072134   .1179487   .0153846 
         c13 |  .0076109   .1692308   .0205128 
         c14 |  .0107098   .0923077    .025641 
         c15 |  .0106815   .1076923   .0205128 
         c16 |  .0130273   .1128205    .025641 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .14871795
e(pval_joint_post_std): .02051282

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1630288

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .01306167

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .1887179

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .02051282
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(110 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.867455     15.5168          0   988.0756

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1896
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |   .000303 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .108
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .024
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .403
         Ferdinand Tönnies |        .239
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .082
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .037
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |        .003
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .002
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .102
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9799019 
                 wrote_English |         0       .003 
                  wrote_German |         1       .995 
                  wrote_French |         0       .002 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516    .816335 
                     Socialist |         1       .615 
                     Political |         1       .936 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0014385   .0014946 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0019409   .0019141 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .001076   .0011371 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0011751   .0011441 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0013704    .001424 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0011724     .00113 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0005133    .000541 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 6miop35277
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1896
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0000296   .9282051   .9435897 
          c2 |  .0006702   .1692308   .0871795 
          c3 |  .0019335   .0820513   .0205128 
          c4 |  .0022768   .1025641   .0102564 
          c5 |  .0027299   .0410256          0 
          c6 |  .0020086   .0358974          0 
          c7 |  .0017059   .0564103   .0102564 
          c8 |  .0014684   .0769231   .0153846 
          c9 |  .0007294   .2666667   .2512821 
         c10 |  .0007604   .2205128   .1948718 
         c11 |  .0015275   .1846154   .1076923 
         c12 |  .0011761   .1692308   .0666667 
         c13 |  .0015104   .1692308   .0871795 
         c14 |  .0018029   .1692308   .1179487 
         c15 |  .0019762   .1794872   .1179487 
         c16 |  .0026159   .1641026   .0923077 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .15897436
e(pval_joint_post_std): .06666667

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1793079

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02351107

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2272189

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(110 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.867881    15.55328          0   988.0756

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1897
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0003391 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .036
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .226
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .612
         Ferdinand Tönnies |        .051
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |        .016
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |         .01
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .039
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |        .001
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |         .01
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9760638 
                 wrote_English |         0        .01 
                  wrote_German |         1       .991 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7779216 
                     Socialist |         1       .687 
                     Political |         1       .758 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0015557   .0016896 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0020989   .0020268 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0011636   .0012381 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0012708   .0012154 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |   .001482    .001523 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0012678   .0012238 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0005551    .000594 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : cvmts6ch79
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1897
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0001202   .6153846   .6769231 
          c2 |  .0008724   .1282051   .0564103 
          c3 |  .0022404   .0615385   .0102564 
          c4 |  .0026172   .0769231   .0051282 
          c5 |   .002297   .0717949          0 
          c6 |   .001715   .0410256   .0102564 
          c7 |  .0014135   .0871795   .0153846 
          c8 |  .0010552   .1282051   .0666667 
          c9 |  .0005229   .3641026   .3589744 
         c10 |  .0003358   .4153846   .5179487 
         c11 |  .0012778   .1794872   .1179487 
         c12 |  .0011267   .1384615   .0974359 
         c13 |  .0009425   .2358974         .2 
         c14 |  .0012826   .2564103   .1794872 
         c15 |  .0014872         .2   .1589744 
         c16 |  .0022871    .174359   .0871795 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .16923077
e(pval_joint_post_std): .09230769

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2222959

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .0252448

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2769231

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(165 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.502633    4.076128          0   107.6305

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1898
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0019317 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |        .002
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .439
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |        .002
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .057
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |        .002
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .008
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |        .001
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |         .03
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |        .002
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .068
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |         .39
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9823589 
                 wrote_English |         0       .004 
                  wrote_German |         1       .992 
                  wrote_French |         0       .002 
                   wrote_Greek |         0       .002 
                   wrote_Latin |         0       .001 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8063513 
                     Socialist |         1       .897 
                     Political |         1       .956 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0084731   .0107722 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0114321    .010389 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0063376   .0063875 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0069215   .0071644 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |   .008072   .0088574 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0069053   .0064522 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0030231   .0046014 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : m7gujv3f81
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1898
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0022042   .4153846   .2512821 
          c2 |  .0039245   .2820513   .0974359 
          c3 |   .009954   .0974359   .0153846 
          c4 |  .0128481   .1025641   .0102564 
          c5 |  .0162537   .0564103          0 
          c6 |  .0097074   .0820513   .0102564 
          c7 |  .0082171   .1179487    .025641 
          c8 |  .0086611   .1487179   .0205128 
          c9 |   .004191   .3641026   .2102564 
         c10 |  .0050924   .2512821   .1128205 
         c11 |  .0052425   .2871795   .1538462 
         c12 |  .0041805   .3487179         .2 
         c13 |   .005868   .3025641   .1692308 
         c14 |  .0032663   .4769231   .3384615 
         c15 |  .0087785   .1794872   .0769231 
         c16 |  .0127181    .174359   .0564103 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .21025641
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04615385

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3278602

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .03060495

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3589744

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .05470086
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(55 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.331354    3.788242          0   235.1514

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1899
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0011189 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .031
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |        .108
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .093
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .306
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .105
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .031
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |        .002
                     Kafka |        .015
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .309
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451    .976921 
                 wrote_English |         0       .002 
                  wrote_German |         1       .998 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8169771 
                     Socialist |         1       .646 
                     Political |         1       .751 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0060484   .0061281 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0081606   .0081076 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |   .004524   .0045953 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0049408   .0048318 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0057621   .0056961 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0049292   .0047912 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |   .002158   .0023817 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : szwxplo383
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1899
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0010474   .3969072    .314433 
          c2 |  .0028944   .1443299    .056701 
          c3 |  .0082098   .0670103   .0103093 
          c4 |  .0070549   .0979381   .0206186 
          c5 |  .0112935   .0412371          0 
          c6 |  .0069879   .0618557          0 
          c7 |  .0061525   .0618557   .0154639 
          c8 |   .004222   .1340206   .0360825 
          c9 |   .003041   .2525773   .1340206 
         c10 |  .0018201    .371134   .2938144 
         c11 |  .0063554   .1494845   .0618557 
         c12 |  .0029882   .2319588   .1237113 
         c13 |  .0052953   .1752577   .0618557 
         c14 |  .0049873   .2525773   .1340206 
         c15 |  .0074352   .1701031   .0876289 
         c16 |  .0097331   .1391753   .0618557 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .20103093
e(pval_joint_post_std): .06185567

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2089914

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02536074

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2549203

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04123711
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(110 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780     1.43834    3.190549          0   153.3279

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1900
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0019676 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .025
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .359
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .075
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |        .007
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .004
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .469
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .061
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9767671 
                 wrote_English |         0       .007 
                  wrote_German |         1       .989 
                  wrote_French |         0       .004 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8068595 
                     Socialist |         1       .918 
                     Political |         1       .993 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0092454   .0101162 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0124742   .0120336 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0069153   .0073437 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0075525   .0071937 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0088078   .0099031 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0075348   .0070112 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0032987   .0037413 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : yrb5rspd85
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1900
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
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Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
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Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0015265   .4205128   .4461538 
          c2 |  .0040674   .1692308   .0820513 
          c3 |  .0116337   .0615385   .0153846 
          c4 |  .0134556   .0769231   .0205128 
          c5 |  .0178484   .0615385          0 
          c6 |  .0121076   .0461538          0 
          c7 |  .0103581   .0666667   .0153846 
          c8 |  .0096777   .0820513   .0153846 
          c9 |  .0051263   .2307692   .1435897 
         c10 |  .0057452   .1692308   .0974359 
         c11 |   .010631   .1487179   .0461538 
         c12 |  .0075424   .1794872   .0666667 
         c13 |  .0105828   .1692308   .0564103 
         c14 |  .0087149   .1897436   .0974359 
         c15 |  .0121505   .1487179   .0769231 
         c16 |  .0154633   .1230769   .0461538 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .14871795
e(pval_joint_post_std): .05128205

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1856201

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02417665

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2168498

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(110 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.355786    2.531572          0   140.3609

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1901
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |   .002427 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |        .039
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .019
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |           0
         Ferdinand Tönnies |        .074
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .131
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |        .009
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .034
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |        .001
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |        .187
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .505
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9728312 
                 wrote_English |         0       .001 
                  wrote_German |         1       .998 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8089134 
                     Socialist |         1       .693 
                     Political |         1       .898 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0097856   .0121307 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |   .013203   .0129074 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0073193   .0075395 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0079937   .0078593 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0093224   .0094226 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |   .007975   .0076506 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0034914   .0037199 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : jc2k76ob87
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1901
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0020647   .3794872   .3487179 
          c2 |  .0022599   .2820513   .2615385 
          c3 |  .0081411   .0974359   .0307692 
          c4 |   .008075   .1179487   .0410256 
          c5 |  .0163048   .0564103          0 
          c6 |  .0101505   .0769231   .0102564 
          c7 |   .011352   .0769231   .0205128 
          c8 |  .0091443   .1076923   .0461538 
          c9 | -.0031567   .4512821   .4461538 
         c10 | -.0003486   .8923077   .9230769 
         c11 |  .0093474   .1641026   .1128205 
         c12 |  .0060456   .1846154   .1538462 
         c13 |  .0054084   .2974359   .2974359 
         c14 |  .0023326   .5897436   .6205128 
         c15 |  .0123707   .1692308   .1025641 
         c16 |  .0109715   .1846154   .1076923 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .20512821
e(pval_joint_post_std): .1025641

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2938184

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .04255375

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2953846

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .08205128
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(55 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.207703     2.02208          0   89.36137

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1902
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0024681 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |           0
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .069
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |        .011
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .337
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .015
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .035
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .051
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |        .479
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |        .003
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451    .980798 
                 wrote_English |         0       .003 
                  wrote_German |         1       .997 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7972909 
                     Socialist |         1       .348 
                     Political |         1       .896 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0146752   .0150726 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0198001   .0172791 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0109766   .0114969 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0119879   .0128641 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0139806   .0142704 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0119599   .0109275 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |   .005236   .0074489 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : mcrsba3e89
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1902
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0036567   .2564103   .1692308 
          c2 |  .0083143   .1333333   .0410256 
          c3 |  .0207655   .0666667   .0102564 
          c4 |  .0232501   .0820513   .0051282 
          c5 |  .0278116   .0153846          0 
          c6 |  .0177992   .0512821          0 
          c7 |  .0145997   .0923077   .0205128 
          c8 |   .015779   .0769231   .0051282 
          c9 |  .0103575   .1794872   .0666667 
         c10 |  .0106468   .1435897   .0615385 
         c11 |  .0198673   .1179487    .025641 
         c12 |  .0163167   .1179487   .0358974 
         c13 |  .0176393   .1435897    .025641 
         c14 |  .0236462   .1025641   .0307692 
         c15 |  .0216253   .1179487   .0358974 
         c16 |  .0307966   .0871795   .0205128 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .13846154
e(pval_joint_post_std): .02051282

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .115618

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .01465966

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .1641026

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .02051282
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
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file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(55 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.416566    6.410044          0   420.3268

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1903
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0006597 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .405
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .058
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .417
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |        .035
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .083
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |        .001
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .001
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9797812 
                 wrote_English |         0       .001 
                  wrote_German |         1       .998 
                  wrote_French |         0       .001 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7872484 
                     Socialist |         1       .823 
                     Political |         1       .906 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0030154   .0032466 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0040684   .0038364 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0022554   .0021511 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0024632   .0024773 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0028726   .0031885 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0024574   .0021151 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0010759   .0014239 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : bmrck82v91
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1903
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0011843   .2102564   .0871795 
          c2 |  .0012547   .1794872   .0974359 
          c3 |  .0043306   .0820513   .0102564 
          c4 |  .0048937   .0820513   .0102564 
          c5 |  .0053678   .0461538          0 
          c6 |   .003821   .0410256   .0051282 
          c7 |   .003164   .0820513   .0205128 
          c8 |  .0031041   .1076923    .025641 
          c9 |  .0021779    .225641   .1538462 
         c10 |  .0024088   .1538462   .0820513 
         c11 |  .0040299   .1384615   .0615385 
         c12 |  .0033508   .1487179   .0358974 
         c13 |  .0034275   .1384615   .0358974 
         c14 |  .0048852   .1487179   .0871795 
         c15 |   .004835   .1641026   .1025641 
         c16 |  .0063181   .1179487   .0564103 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .15384615
e(pval_joint_post_std): .07179487

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1782793

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02223057

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2019724

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
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file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(55 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.290124    1.940229          0   78.21773

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1904
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0036203 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .091
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .151
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |        .068
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .276
         Ferdinand Tönnies |        .122
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |        .035
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .198
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .058
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9750363 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1       .999 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8010719 
                     Socialist |         1       .425 
                     Political |         1       .745 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0184655   .0185324 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0249141   .0225559 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0138116   .0138115 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0150842   .0150597 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0175915   .0176174 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0150489   .0149712 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0065884   .0066821 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : w75h5gxr93
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1904
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
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child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |   .002049   .5179487   .4974359 
          c2 |  .0117086   .0923077   .0410256 
          c3 |  .0272071   .0564103   .0102564 
          c4 |  .0324712   .0717949   .0102564 
          c5 |  .0328874   .0358974          0 
          c6 |    .02381   .0512821          0 
          c7 |  .0209697   .0512821   .0102564 
          c8 |   .016568   .1076923   .0153846 
          c9 |  .0079686   .3076923   .2307692 
         c10 |   .007945   .2307692   .2410256 
         c11 |  .0155652   .2051282   .1179487 
         c12 |  .0144204    .174359   .1025641 
         c13 |  .0148415   .2461538   .1384615 
         c14 |  .0223151   .1333333   .0615385 
         c15 |  .0239234   .1230769   .0564103 
         c16 |   .032233   .1025641   .0461538 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .14871795
e(pval_joint_post_std): .05641026

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1599188

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02110178

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2133333

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .03282051
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(55 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.362616    3.547215          0   108.2785

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1905
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0024531 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .057
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .413
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |        .005
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .138
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .029
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .305
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .003
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |         .05
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9760966 
                 wrote_English |         0        .05 
                  wrote_German |         1       .947 
                  wrote_French |         0       .003 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8087647 
                     Socialist |         1       .473 
                     Political |         1       .966 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0141882   .0146676 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0191431   .0187063 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0106123   .0107349 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0115901   .0115982 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0135166   .0138503 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |   .011563   .0108529 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0050623   .0067308 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : i7vv7p3595
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1905
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0076847   .0923077   .0102564 
          c2 |  .0058423   .1282051   .0564103 
          c3 |  .0199299   .0461538   .0051282 
          c4 |  .0224538   .0512821   .0102564 
          c5 |  .0248933    .025641          0 
          c6 |  .0175348   .0358974          0 
          c7 |   .014954   .0461538    .025641 
          c8 |  .0148749   .0512821   .0051282 
          c9 |  .0081658         .2   .1282051 
         c10 |   .011005   .1282051   .0564103 
         c11 |  .0189012   .0974359    .025641 
         c12 |  .0143548   .0820513   .0410256 
         c13 |  .0142987   .1333333   .0512821 
         c14 |  .0212095   .0974359   .0410256 
         c15 |  .0211048   .0769231   .0307692 
         c16 |  .0242808   .0923077   .0461538 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .1025641
e(pval_joint_post_std): .03589744

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .09615246

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .01445196

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .1299145

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .02051282
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(55 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780     1.32534    2.193338          0   68.07642

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1906
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0031215 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .144
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .016
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .493
         Ferdinand Tönnies |        .178
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .163
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .004
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |        .001
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9787075 
                 wrote_English |         0       .001 
                  wrote_German |         1       .998 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8116895 
                     Socialist |         1       .638 
                     Political |         1       .979 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0147246   .0153144 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0198667   .0194288 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0110135   .0119063 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0120283   .0118424 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0140276    .015062 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0120001   .0111522 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0052536   .0062243 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : tju2mjq297
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1906
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0001177   .9589744   .9487179 
          c2 |  .0060186   .2205128   .0871795 
          c3 |  .0196417   .0717949   .0205128 
          c4 |  .0236531   .0923077   .0153846 
          c5 |  .0274716   .0461538          0 
          c6 |  .0206058   .0512821          0 
          c7 |  .0175389   .0871795   .0102564 
          c8 |   .014866   .1076923   .0102564 
          c9 |  .0093491   .2615385   .1025641 
         c10 |  .0093584   .2307692   .0923077 
         c11 |  .0170583   .1538462   .0564103 
         c12 |  .0126996   .2153846   .0666667 
         c13 |  .0163489   .1897436   .0512821 
         c14 |  .0200637   .1589744   .0461538 
         c15 |  .0208514   .1384615   .0666667 
         c16 |  .0280859   .1384615   .0512821 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .17435897
e(pval_joint_post_std): .05128205

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2120949

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02175297

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .254359

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(110 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.225418    2.426699          0   130.6642

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1907
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0012917 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .236
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |        .026
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |         .01
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .203
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .221
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .011
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .082
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .212
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9781901 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1      1.001 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8134608 
                     Socialist |         1       .651 
                     Political |         1       .954 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0060718   .0063088 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0081922    .007961 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0045415    .004919 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0049599    .004911 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0057844    .006109 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0049483   .0047205 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0021664   .0022677 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : 294r4lqt99
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1907
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0009719   .6051282    .374359 
          c2 |  .0025334   .2410256   .0717949 
          c3 |  .0080357   .1076923   .0205128 
          c4 |  .0073994   .1435897   .0205128 
          c5 |  .0116595   .0410256          0 
          c6 |   .007803   .0820513          0 
          c7 |  .0070074   .1076923   .0153846 
          c8 |  .0058692   .1538462   .0205128 
          c9 |  .0033637   .4051282   .1435897 
         c10 |  .0037089   .3435897   .1179487 
         c11 |  .0080449   .2051282   .0564103 
         c12 |   .004852   .2512821   .0666667 
         c13 |  .0073402   .2051282    .025641 
         c14 |  .0068427   .2769231   .0820513 
         c15 |  .0089538   .1897436   .0923077 
         c16 |  .0107755   .2102564   .0564103 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .22564103
e(pval_joint_post_std): .07179487

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3015699

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02487123

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3350428

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(0 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.238998    2.195277          0   99.63438

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1908
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0011736 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .071
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .082
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |        .243
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .081
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .228
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .019
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |        .001
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .159
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .028
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |        .069
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |        .019
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9729026 
                 wrote_English |         0       .001 
                  wrote_German |         1       .999 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7993758 
                     Socialist |         1        .18 
                     Political |         1       .655 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0068458   .0070558 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0092366   .0095226 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0051205   .0053628 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0055923   .0054611 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0065218   .0066226 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0055792   .0052545 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0024426   .0033505 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : artbk1r101
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1908
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0028599   .3179487   .0461538 
          c2 |  .0031114   .2666667   .0461538 
          c3 |  .0086792   .0871795   .0051282 
          c4 |  .0111821   .0974359   .0051282 
          c5 |  .0130427   .0717949          0 
          c6 |  .0082917   .0666667          0 
          c7 |   .006535   .1435897   .0102564 
          c8 |  .0073472   .1589744   .0051282 
          c9 |   .004141   .4307692   .0974359 
         c10 |  .0038783   .3641026   .0923077 
         c11 |  .0090355         .2   .0205128 
         c12 |  .0073075   .2153846   .0205128 
         c13 |  .0079084   .2205128    .025641 
         c14 |   .008866   .2512821   .0410256 
         c15 |  .0105962   .1794872   .0461538 
         c16 |  .0135518   .1692308    .025641 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .21538462
e(pval_joint_post_std): .02564103

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3080572

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .01285167

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3207459

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .01641026
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(55 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.271591     1.71171          0    73.4344

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1909
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0019897 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .076
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .277
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |        .163
       Eduard von Hartmann |        .108
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .102
         Ferdinand Tönnies |        .116
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |        .035
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |         .11
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |        .013
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9737304 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1          1 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7856732 
                     Socialist |         1       .178 
                     Political |         1       .404 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0122003   .0125148 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0164609   .0162736 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0091254    .009085 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0099662   .0101817 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0116228   .0115117 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0099429    .009684 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |   .004353   .0053703 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : ygd6m4f103
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1909
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
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child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
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child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
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child process 0014 has exited without error...
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child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  -.000022          1   .9896907 
          c2 |  .0076306   .1597938   .0257732 
          c3 |  .0160002    .056701   .0103093 
          c4 |   .022812   .0670103          0 
          c5 |  .0216438   .0309278          0 
          c6 |  .0124553   .0670103          0 
          c7 |  .0107737   .0927835   .0103093 
          c8 |  .0096454   .1804124   .0206186 
          c9 |  .0039066   .5618557   .2680412 
         c10 |  .0029777   .6752577   .3402062 
         c11 |  .0079941   .2938144   .1082474 
         c12 |  .0091368   .2474227   .0412371 
         c13 |  .0076467   .4123711   .1082474 
         c14 |  .0122193   .2371134   .0618557 
         c15 |  .0147329    .185567   .0618557 
         c16 |  .0218923    .128866   .0412371 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .20618557
e(pval_joint_post_std): .02061856

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2203719

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .0185424

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2680412

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .02749141
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(0 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.135037    2.035896          0    111.099

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1910
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0011339 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .038
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |        .026
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .015
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .484
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .282
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .007
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .092
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |        .056
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9756407 
                 wrote_English |         0          0 
                  wrote_German |         1          1 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8063905 
                     Socialist |         1       .578 
                     Political |         1       .952 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0061423   .0062906 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0082874   .0082168 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0045943   .0047477 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0050176   .0049656 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0058516   .0061464 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0050058   .0048227 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0021915   .0032063 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : kvd56kr105
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1910
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0018799    .374359   .1076923 
          c2 |  .0021197   .3487179   .0717949 
          c3 |  .0078073   .0923077   .0102564 
          c4 |  .0087307   .1025641   .0102564 
          c5 |  .0114054   .0410256          0 
          c6 |  .0078392   .0512821          0 
          c7 |  .0069722   .0769231   .0153846 
          c8 |  .0060998   .1641026    .025641 
          c9 |  .0036977   .4051282   .1179487 
         c10 |  .0037193   .3948718   .1230769 
         c11 |  .0084197   .1897436   .0307692 
         c12 |  .0054315   .2153846   .0358974 
         c13 |  .0066557   .2410256   .0358974 
         c14 |  .0077548   .2820513   .0769231 
         c15 |  .0093422   .2307692   .0820513 
         c16 |  .0112669   .2051282   .0461538 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .25641026
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04102564

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .2545427

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02109024

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3282051

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(0 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.128534    .8969964          0   24.30976

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1911
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0063041 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .175
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .085
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |        .118
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .204
         Ferdinand Tönnies |        .048
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |        .002
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .209
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .016
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .135
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |        .009
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451    .976312 
                 wrote_English |         0       .002 
                  wrote_German |         1       .999 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7991176 
                     Socialist |         1       .514 
                     Political |         1        .78 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0362226   .0367899 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0488724     .04764 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0270934   .0271974 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0295897   .0301728 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |   .034508   .0334758 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0295204   .0268002 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |   .012924   .0148405 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : aes12ph107
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1911
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
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child process 0015 has exited without error...
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child process 0009 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0000319   .9948454   .9948454 
          c2 |  .0199177   .1340206   .0257732 
          c3 |  .0460257    .056701   .0051546 
          c4 |  .0629564   .0309278   .0051546 
          c5 |  .0683319   .0206186          0 
          c6 |  .0431126   .0360825   .0051546 
          c7 |  .0360709   .0618557   .0154639 
          c8 |  .0375894   .0721649   .0103093 
          c9 |  .0144243   .4845361   .2010309 
         c10 |  .0162832   .4587629   .1597938 
         c11 |  .0347098   .1804124   .0463918 
         c12 |  .0330697   .1597938   .0309278 
         c13 |  .0350478   .2268041   .0515464 
         c14 |  .0429961   .1649485   .0463918 
         c15 |  .0514901   .1185567   .0412371 
         c16 |  .0725862   .0773196   .0309278 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .13402062
e(pval_joint_post_std): .03092784

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1159977

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .0155373

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .1767305

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .02061856
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(55 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.316553    1.594323          0   50.06714

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1912
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |   .002684 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .361
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |        .145
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |        .082
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |        .057
       Eduard von Hartmann |        .099
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .125
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .053
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |        .004
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .074
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9815575 
                 wrote_English |         0       .004 
                  wrote_German |         1       .996 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8178104 
                     Socialist |         1        .56 
                     Political |         1       .613 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0132294   .0137072 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0178495    .017533 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0098952   .0102084 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0108069    .010803 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0126032   .0126818 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0107816   .0106493 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0047202   .0050869 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : mhofeed109
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1912
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0013495   .7938144   .5412371 
          c2 |  .0065885   .2371134   .0721649 
          c3 |  .0175825   .0773196   .0103093 
          c4 |  .0165141   .0927835   .0206186 
          c5 |  .0248763   .0463918          0 
          c6 |  .0151007   .0824742   .0103093 
          c7 |  .0138961   .1082474   .0206186 
          c8 |  .0104744   .2164948   .0309278 
          c9 |  .0066434   .4845361   .2010309 
         c10 |  .0058202   .5670103   .2371134 
         c11 |  .0152603    .257732   .0463918 
         c12 |  .0090749   .3608247   .0876289 
         c13 |  .0138673   .2886598   .0618557 
         c14 |  .0135803   .3505155   .0927835 
         c15 |  .0183543   .2216495   .0463918 
         c16 |  .0232132    .185567    .056701 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .25773196
e(pval_joint_post_std): .05670103

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .31674

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02953074

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .3463917

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .05498282
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(110 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.439589     1.90102          0   55.30385

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1913
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0037618 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .154
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |        .096
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .515
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |        .009
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .118
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |        .042
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .013
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |        .053
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9804082 
                 wrote_English |         0       .042 
                  wrote_German |         1       .945 
                  wrote_French |         0       .013 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8037271 
                     Socialist |         1       .873 
                     Political |         1       .991 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0190829   .0200275 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0257472   .0217837 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0142734   .0152281 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0155885   .0137632 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0181797   .0193459 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0155521   .0129439 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0068087   .0084186 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : y5z4pby111
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1913
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0049988   .3692308   .1846154 
          c2 |  .0044902   .3641026   .1435897 
          c3 |  .0233995   .0564103   .0153846 
          c4 |  .0234432   .0769231    .025641 
          c5 |  .0301118   .0410256          0 
          c6 |  .0237157   .0461538          0 
          c7 |  .0209285   .0358974   .0153846 
          c8 |  .0176409   .1230769   .0205128 
          c9 |  .0135221   .2564103   .1076923 
         c10 |  .0143475   .2410256   .0769231 
         c11 |  .0266203   .1025641   .0358974 
         c12 |  .0202467   .1692308   .0358974 
         c13 |     .0223   .1282051   .0461538 
         c14 |  .0228241    .174359   .0769231 
         c15 |  .0261595   .1333333   .0564103 
         c16 |  .0327117   .1794872   .0871795 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .17435897
e(pval_joint_post_std): .05128205

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1594872

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02427444

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .225641

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(0 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.465358    1.463834          0   33.71486

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1914
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0046578 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .147
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |        .013
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |           0
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .272
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |        .129
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .019
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |        .168
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |        .188
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |         .01
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .025
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |         .03
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9775044 
                 wrote_English |         0        .01 
                  wrote_German |         1       .991 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7941895 
                     Socialist |         1       .632 
                     Political |         1       .959 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0261285   .0268919 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0352532   .0344852 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0195433   .0198891 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |   .021344   .0210965 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0248917   .0253905 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |   .021294   .0206889 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0093225   .0139803 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : am5zrt8113
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1914
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
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child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0068883   .4410256   .1435897 
          c2 |  .0090845   .3025641   .0974359 
          c3 |  .0328088   .0512821   .0102564 
          c4 |  .0381535   .0564103   .0153846 
          c5 |  .0492244   .0205128          0 
          c6 |  .0336406   .0461538          0 
          c7 |  .0305264   .0615385   .0153846 
          c8 |  .0281067   .1384615   .0153846 
          c9 |  .0166366    .374359   .1333333 
         c10 |  .0174631   .3230769   .0923077 
         c11 |  .0368301   .1589744   .0358974 
         c12 |  .0254078   .1846154   .0307692 
         c13 |  .0283772   .2358974   .0564103 
         c14 |  .0341631   .1794872   .0461538 
         c15 |    .04163   .1282051   .0410256 
         c16 |   .049223   .1384615   .0410256 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .17435897
e(pval_joint_post_std): .02564103

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1466883

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02101772

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .1969231

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(55 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.748328    2.963955          0   115.0496

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1915
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0025787 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |         .52
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |           0
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |        .184
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .274
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |        .001
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .003
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |        .018
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9852379 
                 wrote_English |         0       .018 
                  wrote_German |         1       .982 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .7995425 
                     Socialist |         1       .978 
                     Political |         1       .978 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0090137    .009067 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0121615   .0104154 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0067419   .0068457 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0073631    .006134 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |   .008587   .0091103 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0073459   .0064161 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |   .003216   .0035441 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
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file synth_results.xlsx saved
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Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : wkzubqo115
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1915
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 |  .0006327   .8051282   .7282051 
          c2 |  .0031685   .3282051   .2205128 
          c3 |  .0125004   .0307692   .0102564 
          c4 |  .0139068   .0615385   .0205128 
          c5 |    .01608   .0410256          0 
          c6 |  .0125621   .0564103   .0153846 
          c7 |  .0113801   .0769231   .0153846 
          c8 |  .0107335   .1128205    .025641 
          c9 |    .00934   .2153846   .0820513 
         c10 |  .0100458   .1333333   .0512821 
         c11 |   .014925   .1076923   .0358974 
         c12 |  .0119177   .1230769   .0410256 
         c13 |  .0130407   .1692308   .0512821 
         c14 |    .01566   .1333333   .0307692 
         c15 |  .0158497   .1128205   .0564103 
         c16 |  .0206049   .1128205   .0410256 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .14358974
e(pval_joint_post_std): .05128205

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1481746

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02697652

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .1777778

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .06153846
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
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C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
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file normalization_results.xlsx saved

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
(134 missing values generated)
(0 real changes made)
(10,646 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_English |     10,780    1.770679     2.16305          0   58.84016

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_German |     10,505    .0112617    .0373366          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
 cite_French |      9,955    .0238744    .0623617          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
cite_Spanish |     10,230    .0073599    .0335897          0          1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   cite_news |      1,320    .0372711    .0844409          0          1
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |  .0032532 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |           0
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .119
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |         .03
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |        .532
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .258
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |        .007
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |        .008
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |        .003
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |           0
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |           0
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |           0
           Otto Pfleiderer |        .045
                   Pasteur |           0
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |           0
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |           0
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |           0
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |  .9801451   .9896522 
                 wrote_English |         0       .048 
                  wrote_German |         1       .954 
                  wrote_French |         0          0 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .7957516   .8219526 
                     Socialist |         1       .909 
                     Political |         1       .909 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) |  .0188726   .0189833 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) |  .0254634    .022675 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  .0141161   .0144265 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) |  .0154168   .0148059 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) |  .0179793   .0188674 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) |  .0153807   .0142263 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) |  .0067337   .0086913 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : r3uswjd117
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - normalize 1916
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 195 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0039988   .5333333         .2 
          c2 |   .003229   .5076923   .2512821 
          c3 |  .0251876   .0461538   .0102564 
          c4 |  .0190125   .0974359   .0102564 
          c5 |  .0289374   .0358974          0 
          c6 |  .0224624   .0564103          0 
          c7 |   .021911   .0666667   .0153846 
          c8 |  .0170326   .1384615   .0153846 
          c9 |  .0175224   .2307692   .0512821 
         c10 |  .0150915   .2512821   .0615385 
         c11 |  .0275605   .1076923   .0307692 
         c12 |  .0198071   .1487179   .0307692 
         c13 |  .0198995   .2153846   .0512821 
         c14 |  .0226567   .1948718   .0512821 
         c15 |  .0283155   .1589744   .0461538 
         c16 |  .0347851   .1282051   .0358974 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .2
e(pval_joint_post_std): .03589744

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .1846562

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .01982716

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .254359

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .04102564
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=319203.68 17:54:46

. 
. program drop normalized_regression
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

.         
. /*
> **************************************************      
> * Baseline regression, except this time, we use synth_runner's "trends" option to normalize in 1916. 
> *
> * According to the help file, "trends will force synth to match on the trends in 
> * the outcome variable. It does this by scaling each unit's outcome variable so 
> * that it is 1 in the last pre-treatment period."
> ************************************************** 
> cd "$path\results\normalize"
> capture mkdir "Treatment 1917 - synth_runner trends"
> cd "$path\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - synth_runner trends"
> 
> * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
> clear
> snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
> NumberUnits
> quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
> global trunit = r(mean)
> 
> capture noisily {
>         synth_runner cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_Engli
> sh(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>         parallel trends
>         
>         save_synth_runner_output
>         
>         * Cleanup
>         drop lead cite_English_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe cite_English_scaled cite_English_scaled_synth effect_scaled
>         parallel clean  
> }
> if _rc == 0 {
>         * Year argument is a number, so for now, we set the year to 9999, and later, we will replace that spreadsheet cell with the string "1916 ''Trends''"
>         save_normalization_summary 9999
> }
> else if _rc != 0 {
> }
> 
> cd "$path\results\normalize"
> putexcel set "normalization_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Normalization results)
> * replace the year 9999 with "Trends" in the normalization summary spreadsheet
> putexcel (A$i) = "1916 ''Trends''"
> */
.         
. ************************************************** 
. * Meta-analysis of our normalized regressions
. * We read the spreadsheet where we just saved all the results,
. * count how many results were statistically significant, and 
. * save that to the same spreadsheet.
. ************************************************** 
. clear
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. cd "$path\results\normalize"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. import excel "normalization_results.xlsx", sheet("Normalization results") firstrow
(7 vars, 39 obs)
r; t=0.03 17:54:46

. ren Pctdiffbtwtreatedsynth1 Pctdiffbtwtreatedsynth1932
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. ren G                                           Pctdiffbtwtreatedsynth1917_32
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. 
. * We have some years in which SCM could not converge. We want to distinguish between
. * the number of years in which a test was attempted, and the number of successful tests.
. * If a year was attempted, there will be a value of Normalizationyear, but there may 
. * not be a value of Noplacebos and/or Jointpoststdp
. 
. * First, drop any rows that don't have a value for Normalizationyear. These rows - if
. * they exist - have no meaningful data. The remaining observations indicate an
. * attempted test, whether or not it converged and produced results.
. drop if missing(Normalizationyear)
(0 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. gen num_attempted_tests = _N
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. 
. * Now drop any rows which have no value for Noplacebos or Jointpoststdp. These 
. * represent tests which did not converge and therefore failed to produce any results
. drop if missing(Noplacebos) | missing(Jointpoststdp)
(0 observations deleted)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. gen num_completed_tests = _N
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. 
. destring Jointpoststdp, replace
Jointpoststdp already numeric; no replace
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. egen sig_01_Jointpoststdp = total(Jointpoststdp < 0.01)
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. egen sig_05_Jointpoststdp = total(Jointpoststdp < 0.05)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. egen sig_10_Jointpoststdp = total(Jointpoststdp < 0.10)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. egen not_sig_Jointpoststdp = total(Jointpoststdp >= 0.10)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. 
. destring AEPpvalue, replace
AEPpvalue already numeric; no replace
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. egen sig_01_AEPpvalue = total(AEPpvalue < 0.01)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. egen sig_05_AEPpvalue = total(AEPpvalue < 0.05)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. egen sig_10_AEPpvalue = total(AEPpvalue < 0.10)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. egen not_sig_AEPpvalue = total(AEPpvalue >= 0.10)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. 
. destring Simespvalue, replace
Simespvalue already numeric; no replace
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. egen sig_01_Simespvalue = total(Simespvalue < 0.01)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. egen sig_05_Simespvalue = total(Simespvalue < 0.05)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. egen sig_10_Simespvalue = total(Simespvalue < 0.10)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. egen not_sig_Simespvalue = total(Simespvalue >= 0.10)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. 
. putexcel set "normalization_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Normalization results)
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. * We start at row num_attempted_tests[1]+3 because in the spreadshoot, row 1 is the variable names, so row num_attempted_tests[1]+1 is the last observation 
. * Then, we want a blank row at num_attempted_tests[1]+2, so we start at num_attempted_tests[1]+3
. global i = num_attempted_tests[1] + 3
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. quietly mean Pctdiffbtwtreatedsynth1932
r; t=0.32 17:54:46

. matrix mean_results_1932 = r(table)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. quietly mean Pctdiffbtwtreatedsynth1917_32
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. matrix mean_results_1917_32 = r(table)
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. putexcel (A$i) = "Mean pct diff:"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. putexcel (F$i) = mean_results_1932[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. putexcel (G$i) = mean_results_1917_32[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. global i = $i + 2
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. putexcel (A$i) = "No. tests:"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 17:54:46

. putexcel (C$i) = num_completed_tests[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. putexcel (D$i) = num_completed_tests[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. putexcel (E$i) = num_completed_tests[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. global i = $i + 1
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. putexcel (A$i) = "No. tests signif @ 0.01:"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. putexcel (C$i) = sig_01_Jointpoststdp[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 17:54:46

. putexcel (D$i) = sig_01_AEPpvalue[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. putexcel (E$i) = sig_01_Simespvalue[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. global i = $i + 1
r; t=0.00 17:54:46

. putexcel (A$i) = "No. tests signif @ 0.05:"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. putexcel (C$i) = sig_05_Jointpoststdp[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:46

. putexcel (D$i) = sig_05_AEPpvalue[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 17:54:46

. putexcel (E$i) = sig_05_Simespvalue[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:47

. global i = $i + 1
r; t=0.00 17:54:47

. putexcel (A$i) = "No. tests signif @ 0.10:"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:47

. putexcel (C$i) = sig_10_Jointpoststdp[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:47

. putexcel (D$i) = sig_10_AEPpvalue[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 17:54:47

. putexcel (E$i) = sig_10_Simespvalue[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:47

. global i = $i + 1
r; t=0.00 17:54:47

. putexcel (A$i) = "No. tests not significant:"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:47

. putexcel (C$i) = not_sig_Jointpoststdp[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:47

. putexcel (D$i) = not_sig_AEPpvalue[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:47

. putexcel (E$i) = not_sig_Simespvalue[1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:54:47

. 
. putexcel save
r; t=0.00 17:54:47

. 
. ************************************************** 
. * Now, we perform meta-analysis of these p-values
. * Wilson's harmonic mean p-value is undefined for p=0. And the Simes test,
. * although technically defined for p=0, makes no sense with p=0, because a single
. * p-value of zero will guarantee the minimum p-value is zero, even if every other
. * p-value is 0.999. Therefore, we generate a set of non-zero joint postd std p-values.
. * The non-zero p-values are generated by replacing zeroes with the smallest
. * possible non-zero p-values, which are equal to 1/no. placebos
. **************************************************
. gen joint_post_std_p_nonzero = Jointpoststdp
r; t=0.00 17:54:47

. replace joint_post_std_p_nonzero = 1/Noplacebos if joint_post_std_p_nonzero == 0
(0 real changes made)
r; t=0.00 17:54:47

. 
. ************************************************** 
. * Using metap by Aurelio Tobias, we use these methods:
. * Fisher's method, Edgington's additive method, and Edgington's normal curve method
. * Note that Fisher's method is undefined for p=0, so we use p_val_nonzero
. ************************************************** 
. /*
> metap p_val_nonzero, method(f)
>         matrix fisher_p = r(pvalue)
> metap Jointpoststdp, method(ea)
>         matrix edgington_additive_p = r(pvalue)
> metap Jointpoststdp, method(en)
>         matrix edgington_normal_p = r(pvalue)
>         
> * To save these results in the spreadsheet, We move two rows ahead, one to leave a blank and one to start entering data
> putexcel set "normalization_results.xlsx", modify sheet(Normalization results)
> global i = $i + 2       
> *
> putexcel (A$i) = "Fisher's meta-p:"
> putexcel (C$i) = fisher_p[1,1], names overwritefmt
> *
> global i = $i + 1
> putexcel (A$i) = "Edgington's additive meta-p:"
> putexcel (C$i) = edgington_additive_p[1,1], names overwritefmt
> *
> global i = $i + 1
> putexcel (A$i) = "Edgington's normal curve meta-p:"
> putexcel (C$i) = edgington_normal_p[1,1], names overwritefmt
> */
.         
. ************************************************** 
. * Next, we use Wilson's harmonic mean p-value (HMP), which does not assume independence of p-values.
. * This is important because our p-values from all these normalization tests are almost certainly correlated
. * to an extremely high degree
. *
. * We have to use R to generate the harmonic mean p-value (HMP) and the asymptotically exact p-value,
. * according to Wilson (2019), "The harmonic mean p-value for combining dependent tests". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA. 116 (4): 1195–1200. 
. * Wilson wrote the packages in R, so we have to use R from within Stata
. ************************************************** 
. 
. /*
> * Let's do some tests to be sure this is working. We're using
> * R within Stata, so there's a lot to go wrong. 
> * Wilson has provided a lookup table, so let's see if we can replicate those lookup table values, within Stata.
> * If that works, we'll proceed to do our real work.
> *
> * According to the lookup table, an HMP of 0.040 with 10 tests implies alpha<0.05, so the following should return 0.05
> * pharmonicmeanp takes an HMP and a number of tests (L) and returns an asymptotically-exact p-value
> rcall: pharmonicmeanp(0.040, L=10, lower.tail=TRUE)
> 
> * According to the lookup table, an HMP of 0.0233 with 1 billion tests implies alpha<0.05, so the following should return 0.05
> rcall: pharmonicmeanp(0.023, L=1000000000, lower.tail=TRUE)
> 
> * Let's manually put in 10 HMPs each equal to 0.040, unweighted, and calculate the exact p-value.
> * We should get 0.05
> * p.hmp takes a vector of ordinary p-values and returns an asymptotically exact p-value
> rcall: x <- c(0.040, 0.040, 0.040, 0.040, 0.040, 0.040, 0.040, 0.040, 0.040, 0.040)
> rcall: p.hmp(x)
> 
> * It seems to be working. So now we can do our real work.
> */
. 
. * So now we have to pass all our variables into R, so that we can calculate weighted HMP and exact p-values. The no_placebos will be used to generate weights
. * For each of our p-values, we use rcall: x <- st.var(x) to pass the variable to R. But this creates a list, where the 0th column is the index, and the 
. * and the 1st column is the actual p-value we want. So then we use rcall: x <- x[,1] to extract a vector from the list.
. egen total_placebos = total(Noplacebos)
r; t=0.00 17:54:47

. gen weights = Noplacebos/total_placebos
r; t=0.00 17:54:47

. rcall: joint_post_std_p_nonzero <- st.var(joint_post_std_p_nonzero)
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=0.59 17:54:47

.         rcall: joint_post_std_p_nonzero <- joint_post_std_p_nonzero[,1]
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=1.04 17:54:48

. rcall: AEPpvalue <- st.var(AEPpvalue)
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=1.15 17:54:49

.         rcall: AEPpvalue <- AEPpvalue[,1]
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=1.03 17:54:50

. rcall: Simespvalue = st.var(Simespvalue)
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=0.58 17:54:51

.         rcall: Simespvalue <- Simespvalue[,1]
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=0.46 17:54:51

. rcall: weights <- st.var(weights)
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=1.14 17:54:53

.         rcall: weights <- weights[,1]
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=1.14 17:54:54

. 
. * hmp.stat takes a vector of ordinary p-values and returns a harmonic mean p-value (HMP)
. * rcall: hmp_unweighted <- hmp.stat(p_val_nonzero)
. 
. * hmp.stat can also take a vector of weights. We will use the number of placebos as a fraction of total placebos as the weights
. * rcall: hmp_weighted <- hmp.stat(p_val_nonzero,weights)
. 
. * p.hmp takes a vector of ordinary p-values and returns an asymptotically exact p-value
. * We have three sets of p-values, where each row or observation is a normalization year: we have the joint post std p-value, 
. * the AEP p-value which combines all the individual years' std p-values, and the Simes p-value which combines all the individual
. * years' p-values. We have each of these three p-values for every normalization year, so now we use Wilson's HMP/AEP to combine them.
. * That is, each normalization year has a meta-p-value formed by AEP and Simes, and now, we meta-analyze the meta-p-values.
. rcall: jointpoststdp_aep_unweighted <- p.hmp(joint_post_std_p_nonzero)
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(joint_post_std_p_nonzero) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
r; t=0.46 17:54:54

. rcall: AEPpvalue_aep_unweighted <- p.hmp(AEPpvalue)
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(AEPpvalue) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
r; t=0.47 17:54:55

. rcall: Simespvalue_aep_unweighted <- p.hmp(Simespvalue)
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(Simespvalue) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
r; t=1.02 17:54:56

. 
. * p.hmp can also take a vector of weights. We will use the number of placebos as a fraction of total placebos as the weights
. rcall: jointpoststdp_aep_weighted <- p.hmp(joint_post_std_p_nonzero,weights)
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(joint_post_std_p_nonzero, weights) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
r; t=0.46 17:54:56

. rcall: AEPpvalue_aep_weighted <- p.hmp(AEPpvalue,weights)
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(AEPpvalue, weights) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
r; t=1.01 17:54:57

. rcall: Simespvalue_aep_weighted <- p.hmp(Simespvalue,weights)
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(Simespvalue, weights) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
r; t=0.46 17:54:58

. 
. /* Daniel Wilson emailed me and told me that he has a forthcoming paper in PNAS
> responding to a new criticism of the HMP. Apparently, under certain forms of dependence,
> the HMP is not conservative enough, and a target alpha of 0.05 will be elevated to 0.07.
> He suggested that I use a modified, multi-level form of Simes's test.
> 
> Wilson's multi-level test is specified in his email as follows:
> calc.pSimes = function(p,w=rep(1/L,L),L=length(p)) {
>   pstar = p/w
>   min(sort(pstar)/(1:length(p)))
> }
> 
> */
. 
. * The Simes test requires sorting the p-values. It works by penalizing the smallest
. * p-values by multiplying all p-values by N/i. If the minimum value of (Pi * N/i)
. * is still less than alpha, then the overall test is significant.
. * 
. * Simes's test technically is defined for p-values of zero, 
. * but by construction, the presence of even one p-value of zero will result in Simes's 
. * test statistic being zero, no matter how large all the other p-values are. Therefore, 
. * we will use the non-zero p-values.
. 
. rcall: L <- length(joint_post_std_p_nonzero)
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=1.01 17:54:59

. rcall: w <- rep(1/L,L)
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=0.58 17:54:59

. rcall: jointpoststd_simes <- min(sort(joint_post_std_p_nonzero/w)/(1:L))
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=1.01 17:55:00

. 
. rcall: L <- length(AEPpvalue)
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=0.46 17:55:01

. rcall: w <- rep(1/L,L)
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=1.01 17:55:02

. rcall: AEPpvalue_simes <- min(sort(AEPpvalue/w)/(1:L))
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=0.46 17:55:02

. 
. rcall: L <- length(Simespvalue)
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=1.01 17:55:03

. rcall: w <- rep(1/L,L)
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=0.46 17:55:04

. rcall: Simespvalue_simes <- min(sort(Simespvalue/w)/(1:L))
Warning message:
 In  :  
r; t=0.46 17:55:04

. 
. capture erase ".Rdata"
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. capture erase "_load.matrix.pvals_std.dta"
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. 
. * Now all our R results are available in Stata as r() matrices. So we just output them to the spreadsheet.
. * We move two rows ahead, one to leave a blank and one to start entering data
. matrix jointpoststdp_aep_unweighted = r(jointpoststdp_aep_unweighted)
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. matrix AEPpvalue_aep_unweighted = r(AEPpvalue_aep_unweighted)
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. matrix Simespvalue_aep_unweighted = r(Simespvalue_aep_unweighted)
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. matrix jointpoststdp_aep_weighted = r(jointpoststdp_aep_weighted)
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. matrix AEPpvalue_aep_weighted = r(AEPpvalue_aep_weighted)
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. matrix Simespvalue_aep_weighted = r(Simespvalue_aep_weighted)
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. matrix jointpoststd_simes = r(jointpoststd_simes)
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. matrix AEPpvalue_simes = r(AEPpvalue_simes)
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. matrix Simespvalue_simes = r(Simespvalue_simes)
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. *
. global i = $i + 2
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. putexcel (A$i) = "Asymptotically exact p-value, unweighted:"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. putexcel (C$i) = jointpoststdp_aep_unweighted[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. putexcel (D$i) = AEPpvalue_aep_unweighted[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. putexcel (E$i) = Simespvalue_aep_unweighted[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. global i = $i + 1
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. putexcel (A$i) = "Asymptotically exact p-value, weighted:"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. putexcel (C$i) = jointpoststdp_aep_weighted[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. putexcel (D$i) = AEPpvalue_aep_weighted[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. putexcel (E$i) = Simespvalue_aep_weighted[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. *
. global i = $i + 1
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. putexcel (A$i) = "Simes's p-value:"
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. putexcel (C$i) = jointpoststd_simes[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.02 17:55:04

. putexcel (D$i) = AEPpvalue_simes[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. putexcel (E$i) = Simespvalue_simes[1,1], names overwritefmt
file normalization_results.xlsx saved
r; t=0.01 17:55:04

. 
. putexcel save
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. 
. **************************************************      
. * Baseline regression, except this time, we use synth_runner's "trends" option to normalize in 1916. 
. *
. * According to the help file, "trends will force synth to match on the trends in 
. * the outcome variable. It does this by scaling each unit's outcome variable so 
. * that it is 1 in the last pre-treatment period."
. ************************************************** 
. cd "$path\results\normalize"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917 - synth_runner trends"
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. cd "$path\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - synth_runner trends"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - synth_runner trends
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. 
. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. clear
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.05 17:55:04

. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 17:55:04

. 
. capture noisily {
.         synth_runner cite_English ///
>         YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist Political ///
>         cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892) cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_Engli
> sh(1878(1)1880), $convergence ///
>         trunit($trunit) trperiod(1917) mspeperiod(1878(1)1916) /// 
>         noredo_tr_error ///
>         gen_vars ///
>         keep("synth_runner_results") replace ///
>         parallel trends
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : ibuhi9t119
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\normalize\Treatment 1917 - synth_runner trends
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0004 Exited with error -700- while running the command/dofile (view log)...
child process 0006 Exited with error -700- while running the command/dofile (view log)...
child process 0017 Exited with error -700- while running the command/dofile (view log)...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
child process 0030 Exited with error -700- while running the command/dofile (view log)...
child process 0001 Exited with error -700- while running the command/dofile (view log)...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0021 Exited with error -700- while running the command/dofile (view log)...
child process 0023 Exited with error -700- while running the command/dofile (view log)...
child process 0026 Exited with error -700- while running the command/dofile (view log)...
child process 0003 Exited with error -700- while running the command/dofile (view log)...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 child processes encountered errors. Throwing last error.
r(700); t=15502.91 22:13:27
.         
.         save_synth_runner_output
r; t=0.00 22:13:27
.         
.         * Cleanup
.         drop lead cite_English_synth effect pre_rmspe post_rmspe cite_English_scaled cite_English_scaled_synth effect_scaled
r; t=0.00 22:13:27
.         parallel clean  
r; t=0.00 22:13:27
. }
r; t=15502.91 22:13:27

. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Baseline regression, except test whether BFGS gives the same result as DFP. (Assuming we have  been using DFP until now.)
. *
. * We start with $convergence_normalization instead of $convergence because $convergence_normalization  is set with a lower value of maxiter(#). 
. * BFGS requires about 1.5 times as much RAM as DFP, and more iterations requires more RAM too (for some reason). So using BFGS implies we 
. * should restrict to fewer iterations to avoid running out of RAM.  
. *
. * Thus, we take $convergence_normalization and replace the string "dfp" with "bfgs".
. *
. * Furthermore, we standardize our data to mean 0 & std dev 1, whereas until now, our data have been min-max normalized.
. * Thus, we will be testing the robustness of our results to different numerical optimizers & conditions for those optimizers.
. * Instead of DFP, min-max normalization, maxiter(20), we will have BFGS, standardization, maxiter(15). If we still get essentially the 
. * same or a very similar result, then we know our results are probably not driven by the optimizer and/or the optimizer's conditions.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. global convergence = subinstr("$convergence_normalization","dfp","bfgs",1)
r; t=0.00 22:13:27

. 
. * Use snapshot 4, "Karl Marx, 1878-1932, English"
. clear
r; t=0.02 22:13:27

. snapshot restore $Karl_Marx_1878_1932_English
r; t=0.01 22:13:27

. NumberUnits

                   Name_no_Name |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
              1-Abraham Lincoln |         55        0.51        0.51
            10-Archibald Geikie |         55        0.51        1.02
           100-John Stuart Mill |         55        0.51        1.53
               101-John Woolman |         55        0.51        2.04
             102-Jonathan Swift |         55        0.51        2.55
              103-Joseph Lister |         55        0.51        3.06
                      104-Kafka |         55        0.51        3.57
                  105-Karl Marx |         55        0.51        4.08
                     106-Kelvin |         55        0.51        4.59
                     107-Kempis |         55        0.51        5.10
                  108-Kropotkin |         55        0.51        5.61
                      109-Külpe |         55        0.51        6.12
                11-Aristophanes |         55        0.51        6.63
                    110-Leibniz |         55        0.51        7.14
                 111-Lord Acton |         55        0.51        7.65
                 112-Lord Byron |         55        0.51        8.16
             113-Ludwig Büchner |         55        0.51        8.67
           114-Ludwig Feuerbach |         55        0.51        9.18
              115-Lujo Brentano |         55        0.51        9.69
                116-Machiavelli |         55        0.51       10.20
                     117-Malory |         55        0.51       10.71
                    118-Malthus |         55        0.51       11.22
            119-Marcus Aurelius |         55        0.51       11.73
                   12-Aristotle |         55        0.51       12.24
                    120-Marlowe |         55        0.51       12.76
              121-Martin Luther |         55        0.51       13.27
                122-Max Stirner |         55        0.51       13.78
                    123-Mazzini |         55        0.51       14.29
                    124-Molière |         55        0.51       14.80
                  125-Montaigne |         55        0.51       15.31
                126-Montesquieu |         55        0.51       15.82
                 127-Moses Hess |         55        0.51       16.33
              128-Nassau Senior |         55        0.51       16.84
                     129-Newton |         55        0.51       17.35
             13-Auberon Herbert |         55        0.51       17.86
                  130-Nietzsche |         55        0.51       18.37
           131-Oliver Goldsmith |         55        0.51       18.88
      132-Oliver Wendell Holmes |         55        0.51       19.39
                133-Oscar Wilde |         55        0.51       19.90
            134-Otto Pfleiderer |         55        0.51       20.41
                    135-Pasteur |         55        0.51       20.92
 136-Pedro Calderón de la Barca |         55        0.51       21.43
       137-Percy Bysshe Shelley |         55        0.51       21.94
                   138-Pericles |         55        0.51       22.45
             139-Philip Nichols |         55        0.51       22.96
                14-August Bebel |         55        0.51       23.47
           140-Pierre Corneille |         55        0.51       23.98
                      141-Plato |         55        0.51       24.49
          142-Pliny the Younger |         55        0.51       25.00
                   143-Plutarch |         55        0.51       25.51
                   144-Proudhon |         55        0.51       26.02
        145-Ralph Waldo Emerson |         55        0.51       26.53
                      146-Ranke |         55        0.51       27.04
                      147-Renan |         55        0.51       27.55
             148-Richard Cobden |         55        0.51       28.06
                      149-Rilke |         55        0.51       28.57
               15-Auguste Comte |         55        0.51       29.08
            150-Robert Browning |         55        0.51       29.59
               151-Robert Burns |         55        0.51       30.10
                152-Robert Owen |         55        0.51       30.61
                  153-Rodbertus |         55        0.51       31.12
                   154-Rousseau |         55        0.51       31.63
                155-SainteBeuve |         55        0.51       32.14
             156-Samuel Johnson |         55        0.51       32.65
                    157-Scheler |         55        0.51       33.16
             158-Schleiermacher |         55        0.51       33.67
                  159-Schmoller |         55        0.51       34.18
                   16-Augustine |         55        0.51       34.69
               160-Schopenhauer |         55        0.51       35.20
                   161-Schäffle |         55        0.51       35.71
                     162-Simmel |         55        0.51       36.22
              163-Simon Newcomb |         55        0.51       36.73
                   164-Sismondi |         55        0.51       37.24
                    165-Sombart |         55        0.51       37.76
                  166-Sophocles |         55        0.51       38.27
                    167-Spinoza |         55        0.51       38.78
                    168-Tacitus |         55        0.51       39.29
            169-Theodor Fontane |         55        0.51       39.80
                     17-Bakunin |         55        0.51       40.31
              170-Thomas Browne |         55        0.51       40.82
             171-Thomas Carlyle |         55        0.51       41.33
           172-Thomas Jefferson |         55        0.51       41.84
                173-Thomas Mann |         55        0.51       42.35
                174-Thomas More |         55        0.51       42.86
                    175-Thoreau |         55        0.51       43.37
                 176-Thucydides |         55        0.51       43.88
                     177-Thünen |         55        0.51       44.39
                178-Tocqueville |         55        0.51       44.90
                179-Victor Hugo |         55        0.51       45.41
      18-Barthold Georg Niebuhr |         55        0.51       45.92
                     180-Virgil |         55        0.51       46.43
                   181-Voltaire |         55        0.51       46.94
               182-Walt Whitman |         55        0.51       47.45
             183-Walter Raleigh |         55        0.51       47.96
       184-Wilhelm von Humboldt |         55        0.51       48.47
             185-William Caxton |         55        0.51       48.98
             186-William Godwin |         55        0.51       49.49
      187-William Graham Sumner |         55        0.51       50.00
           188-William Harrison |         55        0.51       50.51
             189-William Harvey |         55        0.51       51.02
                     19-Bastiat |         55        0.51       51.53
               190-William Penn |         55        0.51       52.04
              191-William Roper |         55        0.51       52.55
         192-William Wordsworth |         55        0.51       53.06
                 193-Windelband |         55        0.51       53.57
             194-Wollstonecraft |         55        0.51       54.08
                      195-Wundt |         55        0.51       54.59
                  196-de Gouges |         55        0.51       55.10
                   2-Adam Smith |         55        0.51       55.61
           20-Benjamin Constant |         55        0.51       56.12
           21-Benjamin Franklin |         55        0.51       56.63
                     22-Bentham |         55        0.51       57.14
                      23-Bigges |         55        0.51       57.65
                     24-Blanqui |         55        0.51       58.16
                 25-Carl Stumpf |         55        0.51       58.67
                     26-Cellini |         55        0.51       59.18
                   27-Cervantes |         55        0.51       59.69
              28-Charles Darwin |         55        0.51       60.20
             29-Charles Fourier |         55        0.51       60.71
                    3-Aeschylus |         55        0.51       61.22
                     30-Chaucer |         55        0.51       61.73
                      31-Cicero |         55        0.51       62.24
                  32-Clausewitz |         55        0.51       62.76
                  33-Copernicus |         55        0.51       63.27
             34-Dante Alighieri |         55        0.51       63.78
               35-David Ricardo |         55        0.51       64.29
                   36-Descartes |         55        0.51       64.80
                     37-Dilthey |         55        0.51       65.31
                 38-Dostoyevsky |         55        0.51       65.82
                      39-Dryden |         55        0.51       66.33
                        4-Aesop |         55        0.51       66.84
                    40-Durkheim |         55        0.51       67.35
              41-E T A Hoffmann |         55        0.51       67.86
                  42-Ebbinghaus |         55        0.51       68.37
                43-Edmund Burke |         55        0.51       68.88
              44-Edmund Spenser |         55        0.51       69.39
            45-Eduard Bernstein |         55        0.51       69.90
               46-Eduard Zeller |         55        0.51       70.41
         47-Eduard von Hartmann |         55        0.51       70.92
              48-Edward Bellamy |         55        0.51       71.43
                49-Edward Haies |         55        0.51       71.94
           5-Alessandro Manzoni |         55        0.51       72.45
               50-Edward Jenner |         55        0.51       72.96
                   51-Epictetus |         55        0.51       73.47
                   52-Euripides |         55        0.51       73.98
                     53-Faraday |         55        0.51       74.49
          54-Ferdinand Lassalle |         55        0.51       75.00
           55-Ferdinand Tönnies |         55        0.51       75.51
                      56-Fichte |         55        0.51       76.02
               57-Francis Bacon |         55        0.51       76.53
              58-Francis Pretty |         55        0.51       77.04
              59-Franz Brentano |         55        0.51       77.55
           6-Alexander Hamilton |         55        0.51       78.06
          60-Frederick Douglass |         55        0.51       78.57
                       61-Frege |         55        0.51       79.08
  62-Friedrich Carl von Savigny |         55        0.51       79.59
   63-Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |         55        0.51       80.10
              64-Friedrich List |         55        0.51       80.61
          65-Friedrich Schiller |         55        0.51       81.12
                   66-Froissart |         55        0.51       81.63
                      67-Goethe |         55        0.51       82.14
    68-Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |         55        0.51       82.65
              69-Grimmelshausen |         55        0.51       83.16
               7-Alexander Pope |         55        0.51       83.67
              70-Gustav Freytag |         55        0.51       84.18
                      71-Hamann |         55        0.51       84.69
     72-Hans Christian Andersen |         55        0.51       85.20
                   73-Helmholtz |         55        0.51       85.71
              74-Henry Fielding |         55        0.51       86.22
                75-Henry George |         55        0.51       86.73
                     76-Herbart |         55        0.51       87.24
             77-Herbert Spencer |         55        0.51       87.76
                      78-Herder |         55        0.51       88.27
               79-Hermann Cohen |         55        0.51       88.78
                8-Ambroise Paré |         55        0.51       89.29
               80-Hermann Lotze |         55        0.51       89.80
                   81-Herodotus |         55        0.51       90.31
                 82-Hippocrates |         55        0.51       90.82
             83-Hippolyte Taine |         55        0.51       91.33
                      84-Hobbes |         55        0.51       91.84
                       85-Homer |         55        0.51       92.35
                        86-Hume |         55        0.51       92.86
                   87-Hölderlin |         55        0.51       93.37
               88-Immanuel Kant |         55        0.51       93.88
                89-Izaak Walton |         55        0.51       94.39
                      9-Aquinas |         55        0.51       94.90
     90-James Fitzjames Stephen |         55        0.51       95.41
               91-James Madison |         55        0.51       95.92
                 92-Jean Racine |         55        0.51       96.43
                 93-John Bunyan |         55        0.51       96.94
              94-John C Calhoun |         55        0.51       97.45
                 95-John Calvin |         55        0.51       97.96
                   96-John Knox |         55        0.51       98.47
                  97-John Locke |         55        0.51       98.98
                 98-John Milton |         55        0.51       99.49
                 99-John Ruskin |         55        0.51      100.00
--------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                          Total |     10,780      100.00

Panel variable: Name_no (strongly balanced)
 Time variable: Year, 1878 to 1932
         Delta: 1 unit
r; t=0.06 22:13:27

. 
. foreach variable in cite_English cite_German cite_French YearofPublication YearofTranslationtoEnglish {
  2.         capture quietly sum `variable'
  3.         capture replace `variable' = (`variable' - r(mean)) / r(sd)
  4. }
r; t=0.01 22:13:27

. 
. quietly sum Name_no if Name == "Karl Marx"
r; t=0.00 22:13:27

. global trunit = r(mean)
r; t=0.00 22:13:27

. 
. * Create output folder if it does not already exist
. cd "$path\results"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results
r; t=0.00 22:13:27

. capture mkdir "Treatment 1917 - convergence_normalization except bfgs & standardized"
r; t=0.00 22:13:27

. cd "Treatment 1917 - convergence_normalization except bfgs & standardized"
C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917 - convergence_normalization except bfgs & standardized
r; t=0.00 22:13:27

. baseline_regression
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Step: Data Setup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data Setup successful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Treated Unit: Karl Marx
               Control Units: Abraham Lincoln, Adam Smith, Aeschylus, Aesop, Alessandro Manzoni, Alexander Hamilton, Alexander Pope, Ambroise Paré, Aquinas, Archibald Geikie,
                              Aristophanes, Aristotle, Auberon Herbert, August Bebel, Auguste Comte, Augustine, Bakunin, Barthold Georg Niebuhr, Bastiat, Benjamin Constant,
                              Benjamin Franklin, Bentham, Bigges, Blanqui, Carl Stumpf, Cellini, Cervantes, Charles Darwin, Charles Fourier, Chaucer, Cicero, Clausewitz,
                              Copernicus, Dante Alighieri, David Ricardo, Descartes, Dilthey, Dostoyevsky, Dryden, Durkheim, E T A Hoffmann, Ebbinghaus, Edmund Burke, Edmund
                              Spenser, Eduard Bernstein, Eduard Zeller, Eduard von Hartmann, Edward Bellamy, Edward Haies, Edward Jenner, Epictetus, Euripides, Faraday,
                              Ferdinand Lassalle, Ferdinand Tönnies, Fichte, Francis Bacon, Francis Pretty, Franz Brentano, Frederick Douglass, Frege, Friedrich Carl von
                              Savigny, Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi, Friedrich List, Friedrich Schiller, Froissart, Goethe, Gotthold Ephraim Lessing, Grimmelshausen, Gustav
                              Freytag, Hamann, Hans Christian Andersen, Helmholtz, Henry Fielding, Henry George, Herbart, Herbert Spencer, Herder, Hermann Cohen, Hermann Lotze,
                              Herodotus, Hippocrates, Hippolyte Taine, Hobbes, Homer, Hume, Hölderlin, Immanuel Kant, Izaak Walton, James Fitzjames Stephen, James Madison, Jean
                              Racine, John Bunyan, John C Calhoun, John Calvin, John Knox, John Locke, John Milton, John Ruskin, John Stuart Mill, John Woolman, Jonathan Swift,
                              Joseph Lister, Kafka, Kelvin, Kempis, Kropotkin, Külpe, Leibniz, Lord Acton, Lord Byron, Ludwig Büchner, Ludwig Feuerbach, Lujo Brentano,
                              Machiavelli, Malory, Malthus, Marcus Aurelius, Marlowe, Martin Luther, Max Stirner, Mazzini, Molière, Montaigne, Montesquieu, Moses Hess, Nassau
                              Senior, Newton, Nietzsche, Oliver Goldsmith, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Oscar Wilde, Otto Pfleiderer, Pasteur, Pedro Calderón de la Barca, Percy
                              Bysshe Shelley, Pericles, Philip Nichols, Pierre Corneille, Plato, Pliny the Younger, Plutarch, Proudhon, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ranke, Renan,
                              Richard Cobden, Rilke, Robert Browning, Robert Burns, Robert Owen, Rodbertus, Rousseau, SainteBeuve, Samuel Johnson, Scheler, Schleiermacher,
                              Schmoller, Schopenhauer, Schäffle, Simmel, Simon Newcomb, Sismondi, Sombart, Sophocles, Spinoza, Tacitus, Theodor Fontane, Thomas Browne, Thomas
                              Carlyle, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Mann, Thomas More, Thoreau, Thucydides, Thünen, Tocqueville, Victor Hugo, Virgil, Voltaire, Walt Whitman, Walter
                              Raleigh, Wilhelm von Humboldt, William Caxton, William Godwin, William Graham Sumner, William Harrison, William Harvey, William Penn, William
                              Roper, William Wordsworth, Windelband, Wollstonecraft, Wundt, de Gouges
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Dependent Variable: cite_English
  MSPE minimized for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Results obtained for periods: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Predictors: YearofPublication wrote_English wrote_German wrote_French wrote_Greek wrote_Latin wrote_Italian wrote_Spanish YearofTranslationtoEnglish Socialist
                              Political cite_English(1914(1)1916) cite_English(1908(1)1910) cite_English(1902(1)1904) cite_English(1896(1)1898) cite_English(1890(1)1892)
                              cite_English(1884(1)1886) cite_English(1878(1)1880)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906
                              1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Second Step: Run Optimization
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nested optimization requested
Starting nested optimization module
Optimization done
Allopt requested. This may take a while
Restarting nested optimization module (search method)
done
Restarting nested optimization module (equal method)
done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Optimization done
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Step: Obtain Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error

---------------------
   RMSPE |   .024283 
---------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unit Weights:

----------------------------------------
                     Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------------------+------------
           Abraham Lincoln |        .053
                Adam Smith |           0
                 Aeschylus |           0
                     Aesop |           0
        Alessandro Manzoni |           0
        Alexander Hamilton |           0
            Alexander Pope |           0
             Ambroise Paré |           0
                   Aquinas |           0
          Archibald Geikie |           0
              Aristophanes |           0
                 Aristotle |           0
           Auberon Herbert |           0
              August Bebel |        .001
             Auguste Comte |           0
                 Augustine |           0
                   Bakunin |           0
    Barthold Georg Niebuhr |           0
                   Bastiat |           0
         Benjamin Constant |           0
         Benjamin Franklin |           0
                   Bentham |           0
                    Bigges |           0
                   Blanqui |           0
               Carl Stumpf |        .002
                   Cellini |           0
                 Cervantes |           0
            Charles Darwin |           0
           Charles Fourier |           0
                   Chaucer |           0
                    Cicero |           0
                Clausewitz |           0
                Copernicus |           0
           Dante Alighieri |           0
             David Ricardo |           0
                 Descartes |           0
                   Dilthey |           0
               Dostoyevsky |           0
                    Dryden |           0
                  Durkheim |           0
            E T A Hoffmann |           0
                Ebbinghaus |           0
              Edmund Burke |           0
            Edmund Spenser |           0
          Eduard Bernstein |        .001
             Eduard Zeller |           0
       Eduard von Hartmann |           0
            Edward Bellamy |           0
              Edward Haies |           0
             Edward Jenner |           0
                 Epictetus |           0
                 Euripides |           0
                   Faraday |           0
        Ferdinand Lassalle |        .636
         Ferdinand Tönnies |           0
                    Fichte |           0
             Francis Bacon |           0
            Francis Pretty |           0
            Franz Brentano |           0
        Frederick Douglass |           0
                     Frege |           0
Friedrich Carl von Savigny |           0
 Friedrich Heinrich Jacobi |           0
            Friedrich List |           0
        Friedrich Schiller |           0
                 Froissart |           0
                    Goethe |           0
  Gotthold Ephraim Lessing |           0
            Grimmelshausen |           0
            Gustav Freytag |           0
                    Hamann |           0
   Hans Christian Andersen |           0
                 Helmholtz |           0
            Henry Fielding |           0
              Henry George |           0
                   Herbart |           0
           Herbert Spencer |           0
                    Herder |           0
             Hermann Cohen |           0
             Hermann Lotze |           0
                 Herodotus |           0
               Hippocrates |           0
           Hippolyte Taine |           0
                    Hobbes |           0
                     Homer |           0
                      Hume |           0
                 Hölderlin |           0
             Immanuel Kant |           0
              Izaak Walton |           0
   James Fitzjames Stephen |           0
             James Madison |           0
               Jean Racine |           0
               John Bunyan |           0
            John C Calhoun |           0
               John Calvin |           0
                 John Knox |           0
                John Locke |           0
               John Milton |           0
               John Ruskin |           0
          John Stuart Mill |           0
              John Woolman |           0
            Jonathan Swift |           0
             Joseph Lister |           0
                     Kafka |           0
                    Kelvin |           0
                    Kempis |           0
                 Kropotkin |           0
                     Külpe |           0
                   Leibniz |           0
                Lord Acton |           0
                Lord Byron |           0
            Ludwig Büchner |           0
          Ludwig Feuerbach |           0
             Lujo Brentano |           0
               Machiavelli |           0
                    Malory |           0
                   Malthus |           0
           Marcus Aurelius |           0
                   Marlowe |           0
             Martin Luther |           0
               Max Stirner |           0
                   Mazzini |           0
                   Molière |           0
                 Montaigne |           0
               Montesquieu |           0
                Moses Hess |        .002
             Nassau Senior |           0
                    Newton |           0
                 Nietzsche |         .02
          Oliver Goldsmith |           0
     Oliver Wendell Holmes |           0
               Oscar Wilde |        .034
           Otto Pfleiderer |           0
                   Pasteur |         .01
 Pedro Calderón de la Barc |           0
      Percy Bysshe Shelley |           0
                  Pericles |           0
            Philip Nichols |           0
          Pierre Corneille |           0
                     Plato |           0
         Pliny the Younger |           0
                  Plutarch |           0
                  Proudhon |        .038
       Ralph Waldo Emerson |           0
                     Ranke |           0
                     Renan |           0
            Richard Cobden |           0
                     Rilke |           0
           Robert Browning |           0
              Robert Burns |           0
               Robert Owen |           0
                 Rodbertus |         .11
                  Rousseau |           0
               SainteBeuve |           0
            Samuel Johnson |           0
                   Scheler |           0
            Schleiermacher |           0
                 Schmoller |           0
              Schopenhauer |           0
                  Schäffle |           0
                    Simmel |           0
             Simon Newcomb |           0
                  Sismondi |           0
                   Sombart |        .091
                 Sophocles |           0
                   Spinoza |           0
                   Tacitus |           0
           Theodor Fontane |           0
             Thomas Browne |           0
            Thomas Carlyle |           0
          Thomas Jefferson |           0
               Thomas Mann |           0
               Thomas More |           0
                   Thoreau |           0
                Thucydides |           0
                    Thünen |           0
               Tocqueville |           0
               Victor Hugo |           0
                    Virgil |           0
                  Voltaire |           0
              Walt Whitman |           0
            Walter Raleigh |           0
      Wilhelm von Humboldt |           0
            William Caxton |           0
            William Godwin |           0
     William Graham Sumner |           0
          William Harrison |           0
            William Harvey |           0
              William Penn |           0
             William Roper |           0
        William Wordsworth |           0
                Windelband |           0
            Wollstonecraft |           0
                     Wundt |           0
                 de Gouges |           0
----------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictor Balance:

------------------------------------------------------
                               |   Treated  Synthetic 
-------------------------------+----------------------
             YearofPublication |   .478862   .4761744 
                 wrote_English |         0       .087 
                  wrote_German |         1       .863 
                  wrote_French |         0       .048 
                   wrote_Greek |         0          0 
                   wrote_Latin |         0          0 
                 wrote_Italian |         0          0 
                 wrote_Spanish |         0          0 
    YearofTranslationtoEnglish |  .6841436   .6866797 
                     Socialist |         1       .913 
                     Political |         1       .966 
     cite_English(1914(1)1916) | -.3148131  -.2991783 
     cite_English(1908(1)1910) | -.2721576  -.2951785 
     cite_English(1902(1)1904) |  -.345597  -.3366008 
     cite_English(1896(1)1898) | -.3371794   -.331427 
     cite_English(1890(1)1892) | -.3205946  -.3288244 
     cite_English(1884(1)1886) | -.3374128   -.347359 
     cite_English(1878(1)1880) | -.3933762  -.3850342 
------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
file synth_graph.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
file synth_results.xlsx saved
-synth_runner- will overwrite mata objects (ignore if we didn't cleanup after a previous run): do_effect_avgs tr_pre_rmspes tr_post_rmspes do_post_rmspes_t_p tr_t_effect_avg do
> _pre_rmspes_p do_effects_p tr_effect_avg do_val_rmspes_p tr_effects do_t_effects_p do_post_rmspes_p tr_post_rmspes_t_avg; and numbered do_post_rmspe_t_base do_effect_base do_
> t_effect_base do_pre_rmspe_base do_post_rmspe_base do_val_rmspe_base
Estimating the treatment effects
Estimating the possible placebo effects (one set for each of the 1 treatment periods)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Parallel Computing with Stata
Child processes: 31
pll_id         : wnrdv8t121
Running at     : C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Treatment 1917 - convergence_normalization except bfgs & standardized
Randtype       : datetime
Waiting for the child processes to finish...
child process 0010 has exited without error...
child process 0008 has exited without error...
child process 0015 has exited without error...
child process 0030 has exited without error...
child process 0024 has exited without error...
child process 0023 has exited without error...
child process 0022 has exited without error...
child process 0002 has exited without error...
child process 0013 has exited without error...
child process 0012 has exited without error...
child process 0003 has exited without error...
child process 0017 has exited without error...
child process 0018 has exited without error...
child process 0019 has exited without error...
child process 0026 has exited without error...
child process 0009 has exited without error...
child process 0016 has exited without error...
child process 0031 has exited without error...
child process 0007 has exited without error...
child process 0014 has exited without error...
child process 0011 has exited without error...
child process 0028 has exited without error...
child process 0004 has exited without error...
child process 0001 has exited without error...
child process 0021 has exited without error...
child process 0006 has exited without error...
child process 0027 has exited without error...
child process 0005 has exited without error...
child process 0020 has exited without error...
child process 0025 has exited without error...
child process 0029 has exited without error...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enter -parallel printlog #- to checkout logfiles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Couldn't remove all files.

Conducting inference: 5 steps, and 194 placebo averages
Step 1... Finished
Step 2... Finished
Step 3... Finished
Step 4... Finished
Step 5... Finished

Post-treatment results: Effects, p-values, standardized p-values

             | estimates      pvals  pvals_std 
-------------+---------------------------------
          c1 | -.0273025   .3350515   .2680412 
          c2 |   .061503    .242268   .0412371 
          c3 |  .1383724   .1030928   .0154639 
          c4 |  .1727202   .1082474   .0103093 
          c5 |  .2109967   .0618557          0 
          c6 |  .1128303   .1340206   .0103093 
          c7 |  .0723744   .2474227   .0360825 
          c8 |  .0985378   .2010309   .0206186 
          c9 |  .0754945   .2731959   .0979381 
         c10 |  .0885759   .2113402   .0670103 
         c11 |  .1366347   .1546392   .0515464 
         c12 |  .1007609   .2113402   .0618557 
         c13 |  .1012236   .1958763   .0721649 
         c14 |  .1880423   .1443299   .0309278 
         c15 |  .1961941   .1340206   .0309278 
         c16 |   .255508   .1030928   .0360825 
(55 missing values generated)
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In p.hmp(pvals_std) : L not specified: for multilevel testing set L to the total number of individual p-values 
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
Warning message:
 In  :  
e(pval_joint_post): .18041237
e(pval_joint_post_std): .04123711

added scalar:
           e(pval_AEP) =  .3002623

added scalar:
       e(pval_std_AEP) =  .02572675

added scalar:
         e(pval_simes) =  .2817869

added scalar:
     e(pval_std_simes) =  .05498282
file synth_runner_raw.gph saved
file synth_runner_effects.gph saved
file synth_runner_effect.gph saved
file synth_runner_tc.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals.gph saved
file synth_runner_pvals_std.gph saved
Note: File will be replaced when the first putexcel command is issued.
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
file synth_runner_results.xlsx saved
r; t=7801.47 0:23:29

. 
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************
. * Clear everything and restore any settings which were permanently changed.
. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************  
. clear 
r; t=0.00 0:23:29

. rcall clear
(R memory cleared)
r; t=0.01 0:23:29

. capture erase "$path\.Rdata"
r; t=0.00 0:23:29

. capture erase "$path\_load.matrix.pvals_std.dta"
r; t=0.00 0:23:29

. parallel clean, all
r; t=0.05 0:23:29

. set lapack_mkl $previous_lapack_setting, permanently
(set lapack_mkl preference recorded)
r; t=0.00 0:23:29

. mata: mata set matafavor $previous_matafavor_setting, permanently
(set matafavor preference recorded)
r; t=0.00 0:23:29

. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\phil.magness\Dropbox\KarlMarxProject\Stata stuff\results\Stata output log.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:   9 Jun 2022, 00:23:29
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
